Weekly plan - 03/18 - 03/22/2024

Macro

Next week sees the release of manufacturing and service sector data in the US, Germany and France. There will be FOMC meeting to change the credit rate, as well as Eurosummit.

It is advised to pay attention to the events that cause uncertainty in the price movement:

Wednesday - Federal Funds Rate, FOMC Economic Projections, FOMC Statement, FOMC Press Conference.

Wednesday

USD (US Dollar) / Federal Funds Rate - 20:00

Important data that has a serious impact on the volatility of the price movement!

US Prime Refinancing Rate (Fed Funds Rate).

TheFed is voting on future actions with the refinancing rate.

The refinancing rate is the most important parameter affecting liquidity in the financial system. Depending on the size of the lending rate, the lending rates for companies and consumers depend.

Banks can borrow funds from the central bank at the current lending rate. In order to make money, they charge their interest and lend to companies and consumers. The higher the rate, the more interest the companies and consumers have to pay on the loan.

The refinancing rate is the most important tool to fight inflation. Without exotic influences (logistical collapse under Covid-19 and supply chain disruptions), inflation rises from increasing consumer demand. Companies start producing more and more to meet demand, while prices also rise. As companies start ordering more and more raw materials to produce, raw material prices also increase. A spiral of constantly rising prices is created.

Similar to a fire, you have to reduce the oxygen supply and the fire will start to shrink. The more expensive it becomes to get money, the less people start buying goods, the less businesses produce and the less the cost of raw materials increases.

Because of the problems with the heavy debt load, increasing the refinancing rate becomes an increasingly dangerous tool. However, the inflation situation may be improving, but the problems remain. For this reason, the rate is likely to remain at the same level.

The current market forecast is 5.5%.

You can read more here.

USD (US Dollar) / FOMC Economic Projections - 20:00

Important data that has a serious impact on the volatility of the price movement!

FOMC Economic Projections.

The Fed publishes its macroeconomic forecasts once a quarter. This is very important information, as it gives an idea about the current assessment of the situation and future actions of the Fed.

USD (US Dollar) / FOMC Statement - 20:00

Important data that has a serious impact on the volatility of the price movement!

Fed's Monetary Policy Statement.

The FOMC Statement describes the current state of the economy, the Fed's economic and monetary policy outlook.

USD (US Dollar) / FOMC Press Conference - 20:30

Important data with a serious impact on the volatility of the price movement!

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell Press Conference.

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will be answering questions from economists and journalists during the press conference after the announcement of the monetary policy decision.

A very important event, because in his speech the head of the central bank may mention information about future actions to change the refinancing rate.

Anexample of such a speech.

Thursday

EUR (Euro) / French Flash Manufacturing PMI - 10:15 am

Preliminary index of business activity in the French manufacturing sector.

S&P Global conducts a monthly survey of purchasing managers. Managers are asked to answer questions related to current inventories in the company's warehouses, the number of new requests for replenishment of warehouses, new orders and their prices, as well as employment in the company, the workload of production and the current business conditions.

Flash is a preliminary index that is refined a week later in the Finale (final) version. More often than not, the Finale version does not make many adjustments, so the focus is always on the preliminary (earliest) index.

Production is one of the basic elements of any economy and is at the very beginning of the chain of creating goods that are then consumed by people. Since every manufacturer is a professional in their industry, they actively monitor market demand and understand the current market trend.

If a manufacturer sees a deteriorating market situation, there is no point in loading production capacity, investing in new facilities and hiring staff, and purchasing new raw materials. A large number of related very important elements of the economy, such as the labor market, consumption, construction and many others, suffer.

France is Europe's second economy and a major exporter of goods. It is very important to keep an eye on producer sentiment as France is a major contributor to the EU's supply of goods.

Producer sentiment has been falling since the beginning of 2023. Very high refinancing rates are to blame, businesses cannot raise capital for active production. The further they raise/hold the rate, the more the manufacturing sector will stagnate, affecting the economy as a whole.

The latest actual rate (46.8) was higher than the forecasted rate (43.5). The EU economy is more strongly tied to the refinancing rate than the US economy. The high rate was regularly raised by the ECB, which caused the situation to worsen and the economy to deteriorate.

The current market forecast is 47.3.

You can read more here.

EUR (Euro) / French Flash Services PMI - 10:15 am

Preliminary French Flash Services PMI.

S&P Global conducts a monthly survey among purchasing managers. Managers are asked to answer questions related to new orders and their prices, employment, workload and current business conditions.

Flash - preliminary index, which is refined a week later in Finale (final) version. More often than not, the final version does not make any particular adjustments, so the focus is always on the preliminary (earliest) index.

The service sector is the most important element of the modern economy of any country, making a large contribution to GDP. A large number of population works in services and most of the consumer demand is accumulated in them. As the service sector is not so strongly tied to serious capital investments, it is less tied to credit rates for attracting new capital investments.

If a company sees the economy deteriorating, it makes no sense for it to make active plans for growth. The service sector is very much tied to the income of the population. If people will buy food and clothes anyway, they are likely to postpone going on vacation or subscribing to a new resource.

The last actual indicator (48.0) turned out to be higher than the forecasted one (45.7).

The current market forecast is 48.8.

You can read more here.

EUR (Euro) / German Flash Manufacturing PMI - 10:30 am

Preliminary index of business activity in the manufacturing sector in Germany.

S&P Global conducts a monthly survey among purchasing managers. Managers are asked to answer questions related to current inventories in the company's warehouses, the number of new requests for replenishment of warehouses, new orders and their prices, as well as employment in the company, the workload of production and the current business conditions.

Flash is a preliminary index that is refined a week later in the Finale (final) version. More often than not, the Finale version does not make many adjustments, so the focus is always on the preliminary (earliest) index.

Germany is Europe's first economy and the third largest exporter of goods in the world. The country is a major center of engineering and chemical industries. Unlike France, which is the second country with the most nuclear power plants, Germany has turned toward green energy and is very hooked on natural gas. After the outbreak of war in Ukraine, Germany drastically cut gas supplies from Russia, which hit the manufacturing sector very hard.

Manufacturers' sentiment has been falling since March 2021. There were a few positive spikes in the index, but the decline has continued. In addition to the energy problems, refinancing rates are also superimposed. The further they raise/hold the rate, the more the manufacturing sector will stagnate, affecting the economy as a whole.

The most recent actual rate (42.3) was lower than projected (46.1). The high refinancing rate worsens the possibility of profitable capital investment, as long as the situation continues, the manufacturing sector will stagnate.

The current market forecast is 43.1.

You can read more here.

EUR (Euro) / German Flash Services PMI - 10:30 PM

Preliminary index of business activity in the German services sector.

S&P Global conducts a monthly survey among purchasing managers. Managers are asked to answer questions related to new orders and their prices, employment, workload and current business conditions.

Flash - preliminary index, which is refined a week later in Finale (final) version. More often than not, the Finale version does not make many adjustments, so the focus is always on the preliminary (earliest) index.

The latest actual index (48.2) was slightly higher than the predicted index (48.0). The index has been stagnant since early fall 2023.

The current market forecast is 48.8.

You can read more here.

USD (US Dollar) / Unemployment Claims - 14:30

Unemployment Claims.

TheU.S. Department of Labor releases weekly claims data. The indicator is based on the citizens who applied for unemployment benefits for the first time in the last week.

The indicator is very important because it shows the strength/weakness of the labor market. If people are employed, they earn wages and consume services and goods. This can influence the rise in consumer inflation.

At the moment, the Fed is actively fighting inflation. A strong labor market indicates to the central bank that the economy is holding up and the current inflation situation will continue.

The more jobless claims, the better for the Fed's actions. The fewer jobless claims, the worse for the Fed's actions - they have to raise the rate even more.

The latest release of the rate (209K) was equal to the forecast (218K). The labor market remains stable. For this reason, there is no particular increase in unemployment.

The current market forecast is 214 thousand.

You can read more here.

USD (US Dollar) / Flash Manufacturing PMI - 15:45

Preliminary index of business activity in the US manufacturing sector.

S&P Global conducts a monthly survey among purchasing managers. Managers are asked to respond to questions related to current inventories in the company's warehouses, the number of new replenishment requests, new orders and their prices, as well as employment in the company, production utilization and current business conditions.

Flash is a preliminary index that is refined a week later in the Finale (final) version. More often than not, the Finale version makes few adjustments, so the focus is always on the preliminary (earliest) index.

There is a big misconception that the US can only consume and they don't create anything else. This is actually not true, the US is the second exporter of goods in the world. The country's geographical location forced it to develop its own production to meet its needs. Along with this, the US has a large amount of minerals on its territory, which additionally helps in the development of industry.

The USA is indeed the world's largest consumer, so much of the world economy depends on the conditions in the US market. The industry is very active in the local market, so it is a good indicator of future consumption.

The latest actual reading (51.5) was higher than the forecast (50.5).

The current market forecast is 51.8.

You can read more here.

USD (US Dollar) / Flash Services PMI - 15:45

Preliminary U.S. Flash Services PMI.

S&P Global conducts a monthly survey among purchasing managers. Managers are asked to answer questions related to new orders and their prices, employment, workload and current business conditions.

Flash - preliminary index, which is refined a week later in Finale (final) version. More often than not, the Finale version does not make many adjustments, so the focus is always on the preliminary (earliest) index.

The service sector takes a huge share of the US GDP, which is the reason why we still don't see labor market contractions. Services are not as dependent on capital investment as the manufacturing sector, which suffers from a high refinancing rate.

The latest actual rate (51.3) was higher than the forecast (52.4).

The current market forecast is 52.

More details can be found here.

Friday

EUR (Euro) / Euro Summit - All Day

A meeting of the EU governments to discuss the financial situation and the main problems of the European Union and to propose changes to improve the situation.

It is an important event, as it can give an indication of the future economic and financial situation, which will have an impact on the markets.

Example.

USD (US Dollar) / Fed Chair Powell Speaks - 15:00

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell speaks in Washington, DC.

This is an important event as the Fed Chairman has the biggest influence on the financial markets. Powell's speech can indicate the Fed's future actions.

Anexample of such a speech is talking to teachers.

Crypto

BTC/USDT

Monthly

https://www.tradingview.com/x/ymWRkS2u/

For the current period we had a high capture, the price now has a chance to get a correction to 0.5 imbalance range, in order to unload the market, so we should get ready for sharp bursts of increased liquidity, to the marks of 52-54 thousand.

Weekly

https://www.tradingview.com/x/5Fm24AMc/

As we can see, volume for the current period is higher than it was when the high was updated again at 21. Especially, price was able to consolidate above ATH, on high volume weekly candle, so I have two plans here:

• We update PWL and enter consolidation, where altcoins will get a strong decline and accumulate, and only then update the highs.
• We hold last week's low, amid the lack of resistance zones and move up.

Daily

https://www.tradingview.com/x/15d79N1C/

We need to be ready for all the events that happen at the moment, namely a sharp decline, which will long destroy all thoughts of continued growth, in order to reach the specified marks above 70-80 thousand.

ETH/USDT

Monthly

https://www.tradingview.com/x/eQ5BlRZb/

There should be no unnecessary doubts here. Updating the high is logical within the framework of 2024, but before that I wouldn't mind seeing a price clearing, namely a price return to 3290-3000, after which I would like to update the bags on efirium with the aim of overcoming 5-6 thousand.

Weekly

https://www.tradingview.com/x/IPmR8Uu8/

Here I expect the same development as on BTC: either we give an aggressive decline and go to 5000, or we hold the local market structure inside the daily range and go to 5000 in the same way.

Daily

https://www.tradingview.com/x/EU79LFjv/

Now the price has entered the same range as in late January, it remains to be seen how the price will behave: it will be an exit from this zone on impulse or a plum to 3000, before updating the high. In this case, I'm throwing all my attention to etherium, it will be a contender for a strong muve.

ETH/BTC

Weekly

https://www.tradingview.com/x/CWCQFSkS/

And here we have nothing changes, we are still waiting.

FX & Stock market

DXY

Daily

https://www.tradingview.com/x/vaFmnQDM/

It is quite difficult to make a plan for the current week, as on Wednesday we are expecting the FOMC meeting and the decision on the future interest rate. The week is very full of news events. However, we assume further growth of DXY with a possible formation of the low of the week on Wednesday, either inside the BPR zone or through manipulation to the Internal SSL at 102.0. Be careful with your positions.

EURUSD

Daily

https://www.tradingview.com/x/iLA6KM9u/

EURUSD is near the 50% consolidation zone, we don't have any plans for it as its movement will depend on the FOMC in the US and monetary policy in the UK. In general, I wrote about the short-term dominance of EUR until the US rate decision is released, and if the rate remains unreduced - USD will bring the dominance back, so I would expect a downward trend.

GBPUSD

Daily

https://www.tradingview.com/x/WZxLO9q2/

The UK rate decision and plans for future monetary policy are expected on Thursday. The GBPUSD chart tells us of a downward movement after the deviation. We expect a test of the Inversion FVG and a downtrend to the 50% consolidation zone.

SP500

Daily

https://www.tradingview.com/x/Q5xN9R75/

SP500 index is in consolidation at the 50% level, we expect the downward movement to continue, through manipulation to the FVG SIBI, where the high of the week may be formed.

NQ100

Daily

https://www.tradingview.com/x/Rqm0ThdA/

NQ100 index has already entered the lower deviation of consolidation, we expect a return to FVG SIBI with further downward movement to the GAP zone.

In general, we advise to be careful, the current week is full of volatile events, so any plans being made will be low-probability to work out. The best solution is to rest and skip the current week.