Weekly plan - 04/15 - 04/19/2024

Macro

Next week will see the release of Retail Sales, New York State Manufacturing Index, Unemployment Claims and a speech by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell.

We advise to pay attention to events that cause uncertainty in the price movement:

Monday - Empire State Manufacturing Index.

Monday

USD (US Dollar) / Core Retail Sales m/m - 15:30

Change in Core Retail Sales for the month.

TheU.S. Census Bureau releases monthly Core Retail Sales Change for the month.

To calculate the Core, the data excluding auto sales is taken. Statistically, automobile sales account for about 20% of retail sales. Car prices are constantly changing due to strong demand and therefore create a lot of volatility.

As described in past reviews, economists try to fit any situation to a model. Volatility can create problems for these models, so they remove the volatile component from the calculation.

The retail sales baseline is very important because it is the first in the chain to determine consumer demand.

The more people buy goods, the less they become available in store warehouses. In order to supply the demand, stores start to order more and more goods from enterprises. Enterprises begin to actively purchase raw materials to produce these goods.

If people buy less goods, the stocks in the stores' warehouses remain and there is no point in making a new order to the enterprise. The chain that creates a positive impact on the economy does not work.

With the help of the retail sales indicator a large number of statistics are calculated, on the basis of which further decisions on the work of enterprises and government agencies are made.

At the moment, the main task of the Fed is to reduce inflation as carefully as possible. That's why the declining retail sales figure is a short-term positive, saying that the impact is working and they will reach the 2% inflation target in the long run.

The last release of the actual figure (0.3%) was below the forecast (0.5%).

The current market forecast is 0.5%.

More details can be found here.

USD (US Dollar) / Empire State Manufacturing Index - 15:30

Important data that has a serious impact on the volatility of the price movement!

New York State Manufacturing Index.

TheFederal Reserve Bank of New York releases the New York State Manufacturing Index every month. The index is based on a survey of manufacturing companies on business conditions, employment, shipments and new orders.

New York State is the fourth largest state in terms of population (20 million) and the third largest in terms of contribution to the nation's GDP ($2.05 trillion). No matter what anyone says about the US being the world's largest consumer (trade deficit of $948.1 billion), manufacturing is still very strong. There are a large number of local brands covering almost all the needs of the citizens.

It is for this reason that manufacturing data is very important and can say a lot about the future dynamics of the economy as a whole. Since the basic element in the production of goods is enterprises, they are the best and fastest to react to changes in economic conditions. For the entire 23rd year, the indicator has more often than not been in strong negative territory, with few positive changes.

The latest release of the actual indicator (-20.9) was worse than the forecast (-7.0).

The current market forecast is -5.2.

You can read more here.

USD (US Dollar) / Retail Sales m/m - 15:30

Retail Sales Change for the month.

TheU.S. Census Bureau releases monthly data on the monthly change in Retail Sales.

To calculate the index, the data is taken into account the sales of automobiles. Statistically, automobile sales account for about 20% of retail sales. Car prices are constantly changing due to strong demand and therefore create a lot of volatility.

As described in past reviews, cars are a very important part of American life because the infrastructure is very spread out geographically and the transportation system is not as developed as in Europe.

Underreporting real statistics is not a good thing, but when compared to inflation and core inflation (CPI and Core CPI / PCE and Core PCE), car sales are not as important as rising food and energy prices.

You can not change a car for a long time and still own it. However, the car market in the US runs on credit. Mostly people do not fully own cars, but take it on lease or loan. After a certain period of use, they do not pay off the full loan for the current car change it and reallocate the loan to a new car. For this reason, the global aftermarket is filled with cars from the USA.

The hit to auto sales is a decrease in activity by dealers, manufacturers and banking institutions issuing car loans. The auto industry generates 3% of U.S. GDP and creates actual and indirect jobs for 10 million people.

The latest release of the actual rate (0.6%) was below the forecast (0.8%).

The current market forecast is 0.4%.

You can read more here.

Tuesday

USD (US Dollar) / Fed Chair Powell Speaks - 8:15 pm

Fed Chair Jerome Powell speaks at the Wilson Center's Washington Forum.

An important event, as the Fed Chairman has the biggest influence on the financial markets. Powell's speech can indicate the Fed's future actions.

Anexample of such a speech is talking to teachers.

Thursday

USD (US Dollar) / Unemployment Claims - 15:30

Unemployment Claims.

TheU.S. Department of Labor releases weekly claims data. The indicator is based on the citizens who applied for unemployment benefits for the first time in the last week.

The indicator is very important because it shows the strength/weakness of the labor market. If people are employed, they earn wages and consume services and goods. This can influence the rise in consumer inflation.

At the moment, the Fed is actively fighting inflation. A strong labor market indicates to the central bank that the economy is holding up and the current inflation situation will continue.

The more jobless claims, the better for the Fed's actions. The fewer jobless claims, the worse for the Fed's actions - they have to raise the rate even more.

The latest release of the rate (211K) was higher than forecast (216K). The labor market remains stable. For this reason, there is no particular increase in unemployment.

The current market forecast is 214 thousand.

You can read more here.

Crypto

BTC/USDT

Monthly

https://www.tradingview.com/x/JCvIXoYj/

As we can see, the altcoin market has reacted very aggressively to the spill, but bitcoin is still standing still and no scenarios are showing.

What this tells us: liquidity from bitcoin is not ready to move into alternative instruments like altcoins and ether yet. Therefore, we have too high a level to see 80k anytime soon, this spring. If that doesn't happen, we'll talk about other, alternative outcomes separately.

Weekly

https://www.tradingview.com/x/3tIByBCs/

This is the plan I am most interested in, where we get a correction to 59, from there would be an ideal entry point to open positions to capture the high.

Daily

https://www.tradingview.com/x/46geag1W/

If we can keep the weekly bar above the previous low - this will give us a chance to rise from current, if not, the emphasis will be more on 59 and then an upside exit.

4Н

https://www.tradingview.com/x/pUYTyRNQ/

The situation here is similar to the daily and weekly.

Dominance

https://www.tradingview.com/x/3BBcxQ7j/

I really like the look of the dominance. A 57.21% capture is a high chance that we are in the bottom range. If what I am saying is wrong, we will get a few more quarters of waiting before growth starts to show itself.

ETH/USDT.

Monthly

https://www.tradingview.com/x/WQ8eDVQo/

Great reaction from ether where price took out last month's loy. All we need is to close April above last month's loy, otherwise another decline awaits us.

Weekly

https://www.tradingview.com/x/1qtToVPJ/

The situation here is also excellent, as all important levels have been taken out and the 3000 zone is holding the price for now. All we need to close is a week above 3057, otherwise, the text 2717 awaits us.

Daily

https://www.tradingview.com/x/LVQLZrP0/

Similar to other periods, price here needs to close the weekly bar to do anything.

ETH/BTC

Weekly

https://www.tradingview.com/x/YXyB0baN/

The second stage has found its realization.

FX & Stock market

DXY

Weekly

https://www.tradingview.com/x/TvfwUOtA/

A potential breakdown of the upper level of the global consolidation can be seen on the weekly chart. The main target will be the External BSL.

Daily

https://www.tradingview.com/x/XmBIEv2q/

From the point of view of the daily chart we have two variants of development:

1. Movement from current to the first problem zone (FTA 106.8).
2. Correction to the level of 105.1 with subsequent reversal.

Taking into account the situation with the conflict in the Middle East, presumably the new week will open with a wide gap, so the best solution will be to build further context after the opening of the week.

H4

https://www.tradingview.com/x/Go6XAUrz/

We assume the opening in the FVG BISI zone, from where the price can continue the upward movement to the Gap + FTA zones. The second zone of interest is OB. If FVG BISI is broken, we should expect work from 105.1.

EURUSD

Weekly

https://www.tradingview.com/x/HaAdJwp0/

EURUSD is in a downtrend, where last week it overcame the FTA zone in the form of the 1.0700 level, which is now mirrored. The main target is the lower boundary of consolidation, with a possible deviation to take out the Outer SSL 1.0450.

Daily

https://www.tradingview.com/x/vSAIBHir/

It is optimal to expect a correction to the area of mirror levels 1.0700, but it all depends on how the week opens. In general, we can go down from current values without correction.

GBPUSD

Weekly

https://www.tradingview.com/x/Oy7sy6kI/

GBPUSD finally managed to reach the level of 1.2500, which we were expecting throughout March. Now we see an active exit from the consolidation and transition to the downtrend. The first target is the levels around 1.2300.

Daily

https://www.tradingview.com/x/Et5OQoJy/

We assume two variants of development:

1. Re-test of the lower boundary of consolidation (1.2500) and further reversal at 1.2300.
2. Opening gap and downward movement from current values.

SP500 / NQ100

Daily

https://www.tradingview.com/x/GjMOfo0m/

The situation on the SP500 and NQ100 stock indices continues to be ambiguous. We can notice a clear consolidation on the NQ100 index, where the value is still inside the consolidation, with an upward OF noticeable below the consolidation, which is not the case for the SP500.

At the same time SP500 is in a descending OF, with clear Internal SSL zones to reach, however these zones conflict with NQ100, from the SMT logic.

In this case, the narratives of both charts diverge, but we will favor fundamental data, particularly rising inflation, which can lead to sell-offs in stock markets, which we have seen over the last week, especially in the SP500.

Therefore, we expect the downtrend to continue, but it is worth considering how the week will open and the Empire State Manufacturing Index and Unemployment Claims data.

H4 SP500

https://www.tradingview.com/x/7HvBotkN/

We assume the test of FVG SIBI with resistance level 5190, and continuation of the movement to the internal SSL targets. However, the week may open with a rather wide gap, which may change the plans.

H4 NQ100

https://www.tradingview.com/x/7pwTm8zo/

It is optimal to consider a correction to the nearest FVG SIBI zones, but the gap may open with a breakdown of the lower consolidation boundary, right at the OB level, then the context will change.

We advise to skip Monday, and form your plans based on its data. Expect a plan update on Tuesday.