Weekly plan - 03/25 - 03/29/2024

Macro

Next week sees the release of consumer confidence and expectations, final GDP change, pending home sales, core personal consumption index.

Wednesday

USD (US Dollar) / CB Consumer Confidence - 16:00

Consumer Confidence Index.

The Conference Board releases an indicator based on a survey of about 3,000 households that asks them to rate current and future economic conditions, including labor availability, business conditions and overall economic conditions.

The indicator looks at how consumers are feeling at the current moment, as well as what they expect in the future. If they feel negative, it indicates a possible decrease in consumption in the future, which worsens the economic situation. If they feel positive, it indicates a possible increase in consumption in the future, which improves the economic situation.

The past two issues have shown a positive trend.

The most recent actual (106.7) was lower than the forecast (114.8).

The current market forecast is 106.9.

You can read more here.

Thursday

USD (US Dollar) / FOMC Member Waller Speaks - 12:00 pm

FOMC Member Christopher Waller speaks at the Economic Club event in New York.

This is an important event as the members of the Fed's Board of Governors vote on the most important policy issues of the central bank. In the course of answering questions, additional information may emerge that points to future Fed actions.

Anexample of such a speech is the SIEPR Summit.

USD (US Dollar) / Final GDP q/q - 14:30

The Final GDP figure.

TheBureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) publishes a measure based on the change in the value of all goods and services produced in the economy, adjusted for inflation.

GDP is the most important indicator of economic development, so it is treated very carefully. A large number of economic and political decisions are made on the basis of this indicator.

For the last 4 quarters, the economy has been growing, and the figures have been either higher or slightly lower than projected.

The last actual rate (4.9%) was lower than the forecast (5.2%).

The current market forecast is 3.2%.

You can read more here.

USD (US Dollar) / Unemployment Claims - 14:30

Unemployment Claims.

TheUS Department of Labor releases weekly claims data. The indicator is based on the citizens who applied for unemployment benefits for the first time in the last week.

The indicator is very important because it shows the strength/weakness of the labor market. If people are employed, they earn wages and consume services and goods. This can influence the rise in consumer inflation.

At the moment, the Fed is actively fighting inflation. A strong labor market indicates to the central bank that the economy is holding up and the current inflation situation will continue.

The more jobless claims, the better for the Fed's actions. The fewer jobless claims, the worse for the Fed's actions - they have to raise the rate even more.

The latest release of the rate (210K) came in just below the forecast (212K). The labor market remains stable. For this reason, there is no particular increase in unemployment.

The current market forecast is 214 thousand.

You can read more here.

USD (US Dollar) / Pending Home Sales m/m - 16:00

Change in the number of homes (secondary market) under contract for sale but still awaiting a closing transaction.

TheNational Association of Realtors publishes monthly data on the change in the number of secondary market homes for sale.

Real estate is the engine of the economy. The more bids find the final buyer, the more it affects the economy. The likelihood of starting renovations after buying a home is very high. Any repairs or changes are a waste of money on building materials, furniture, professionals and more. A loan is often taken out for renovations, which forces you to pay interest in the future and improve the bank.

You can read about the impact of real estate on the economy here.

The latest release of the index (-4.9%) was below the forecast (1.4%).

The current market forecast is 1.5%.

You can read more here.

USD (US Dollar) / Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment - 16:00

Revised (core) U.S. Consumer Sentiment.

The University of Michigan publishes Consumer Sentiment based on a survey of citizens answering questions about the current and future state of the economy. The main version is released 2 weeks after the release of preliminary data.

The indicator shows how consumers feel at the current moment, as well as what they expect in the future. If they feel negative, it indicates a possible decrease in consumption in the future, which worsens the economic situation. If they feel positive, it indicates a possible increase in consumption in the future, which improves the economic situation.

As part of the fight against inflation, this indicator in conjunction with consumer incomes, consumption can be a good indicator for subsequent actions of the Fed.

The indicator has been in an uptrend since November. The actual indicator (76.9) was slightly above the forecast (79.6).

The current market forecast is 76.5.

You can read more here.

Friday

EUR (Euro) / German Bank Holiday - All Day

Good Friday.

Good Friday is a day of strict fasting and abstinence in the Catholic Church. It is part of the three-day celebration of Easter (Triduum Sacrum or Triduum Paschal), which begins with the Mass of the Last Supper on Holy Thursday, continues through Good Friday and Holy Saturday, the day of the Lord's burial, and ends with the celebration of Christ's resurrection at the Easter Vigil at the Holy Sepulchre.

Since Germany is the main economic element of the European Union, the market will be missing major bank volumes. Usually low volumes cause chaotic price movements, or low volatility.

USD (US Dollar) / Core PCE Price Index m/m - 14:30

Change in the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures Index.

TheBureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) releases the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures Index (PCE) every month, about 30 days after the end of the previous month. The calculation takes the prices of consumer goods excluding energy and food (Core).

Energy and food prices are considered to be very volatile, so economists use the Core index for a more accurate measure.

Consumer spending prices account for most of the inflation as people are the main buyers of goods. This is a very important macroeconomic parameter and indicator, as it is the last in the chain of inflation and shows the real situation in the economy.

Inflation is dangerous because money is constantly depreciating. This causes very big economic and social problems, which, with uncontrolled growth, can even lead to civil conflicts and wars. This has already happened in history. That is why the government is watching this parameter very closely and doing everything possible to influence the price growth.

At the moment, the Fed is making every effort to curb the growth of inflation. The main tool is the increase in refinancing rates. The higher the rate, the higher the borrowing and lending. Expensive loans and borrowing - people can't buy new goods, houses, cars. Lack of great demand for goods - manufacturers make fewer orders, do not increase production capacity and thus do not increase prices at their level.

All of this should lower overall inflation and bring the system to a stable state. So far, the Fed has been doing well, but new problems keep popping up and the tools to influence the situation are unfortunately limited.

Inflation is measured by two main indicators - CPI (Consumer Price Index) and PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditure Index).

The CPI is considered to be the mass indicator, but it has a big problem - it is very slow to show changes and does not take dynamics into account so well.

In order to get around these limitations, the PCE index - a more sensitive index - was used.

What is the basis for the difference in indices?

1. The share of certain goods in consumption.

When the prices of certain goods rise, consumers may switch to other goods. CPI uses a rigid basket calculation of these goods and the specific weight of these goods in the basket. PCE tries to take into account the change in demand, due to which it better accounts for changes in prices and consumption.

1. What kind of prices are taken as settlement prices.

While CPI looks at prices of goods consumed by consumers, PCE takes data on the prices at which goods are sold by the producer.

1. Price Coverage.

CPI takes into account only the prices of the products consumed. PCE takes into account the costs of insurance, health care, and so on (this is also an important component in people's lives).

1. Dynamics of variables calculation formulas.

Indexes use different formulas for calculation. CPI considers a certain set of goods, PCE tries to take into account the change in the demand of consumers (they replace expensive goods with cheaper ones).

The PCE index is very important, as the Fed mainly uses it for its calculations.

The latest actual rate (0.4%) was equal to the forecasted rate (0.4%).

The current market forecast is 0.3%.

You can read more here.

USD (US Dollar) / Fed Chair Powell Speaks - 17:30

Fed Chair Jerome Powell speaks at the Macroeconomics and Monetary Policy Conference in San Francisco.

An important event, as the Fed Chairman has the biggest weight on the financial markets. Powell's speech can indicate the Fed's future actions.

Anexample of such a speech is a conversation with teachers.

Crypto

BTC/USDT

3M-1M

https://www.tradingview.com/x/UwH2BykB/

The quarterly candle closed on increased volume, I don't look at it from the liquidity withdrawal side, because there are no zones for resistance above. Any pullback that will be made should be bought back in periods where you will be scared, even if it is 50K.

https://www.tradingview.com/x/zMihxUzo/

Weekly

https://www.tradingview.com/x/vPCBrXtU/

Here to reach 70-90k, I am looking at several types of pullbacks, either it will be a short decline without blood or the bloodiest manipulation that will leave you out of money if you don't follow the structure plan.

Daily

https://www.tradingview.com/x/0hZHXFtL/

Here we have the first phase of AMD I believe. Definitely I want to see a grab of the outer levels and get wick 5-8% lower than the price is trading now.

Also any descent to 50-52k would be an easter gift for us.

ETH/USDT

Monthly

https://www.tradingview.com/x/vfpwDf6H/

Closing does not look positive, but we have another week to fix it, so let's not make any predictions yet.

Weekly

https://www.tradingview.com/x/maWqEFI6/

Here I want to believe that we have found a bottom, the price traded in the 3000 range and got a pullback, if we go down, the next braking zone will be 2700, where it would be logical to buy back the spot as we are doing now.

Daily

https://www.tradingview.com/x/6N8qBM1P/

In any case, reaching the second bottom will be accompanied by stagnation in the market while the price accumulates liquidity. Therefore, the safest method is accumulation on the spot.

ETH/BTC

Weekly

https://www.tradingview.com/x/zphrvKkw/

Nothing changes here.

FX

DXY

Daily

https://www.tradingview.com/x/Hp88E0mh/

Last week showed strengthening of the dollar on the background of unchanged interest rate, as we assumed. Given the rather impulsive movement, we should consider a correction to the daily OB zone with the subsequent continuation of the upward trend to the External BSL. Since the main news events fall on Wed and Fri, we assume a gradual decline with the formation of compression until Wed, which should form the minimum of the week in the OB zone.

H4

https://www.tradingview.com/x/hKXLGMaQ/

According to the H4 timeframe we should consider a move to the Discount zone with the aim of overlapping FVG BISI, where the correction will turn into an impulse phase.

EURUSD

Daily

https://www.tradingview.com/x/qMLtROY0/

The euro continues to move in a downward direction, potentially towards the lower boundary of the conoslidation. Between the release of the Eurozone rate and the Fed Funds rate, we expected the Euro to strengthen against the dollar, but the Fed Funds rate was not changed, which means the dollar is once again gaining ground against the other currencies. We expect the Internal SSL to be removed, correction to the 50% consolidation zone (OB) and continuation of the downtrend.

H4

https://www.tradingview.com/x/EUOkzek0/

According to H4 timeframe we consider the price reversal after removal of Internal SSL and upward movement to FVG SIBI.

GBPUSD

Daily

https://www.tradingview.com/x/eacvwoI7/

The pound tested the upper boundary of consolidation with overlapping Inversion FVG perfectly and consolidated below the zone of 50% consolidation, we assume a return to the FVG SIBI with further continuation of the downtrend to the lower boundary of consolidation (1.2500).

SP500

Daily

https://www.tradingview.com/x/eymycTYO/

H4

https://www.tradingview.com/x/D2WSk8My/

Indices continue to update ATH, but there are already signs of an approaching long term correction. On SP500 we will consider the logic of working with the wide FVG BISI zone, we need to wait for more data and see how the price will work with this zone.

On the current reversal we see the formation of SMT with NQ, which may indicate a short-term correction, potentially to the OB zone.

NQ100

Daily

https://www.tradingview.com/x/RHUvWcIx/

H4

https://www.tradingview.com/x/iMQFaTZH/

The NQ100 index shows the most accurate picture now. Against the background of expectations of various data on inflation and rates, as well as statements of the Central Bank heads, investors have moved into the phase of uncertainty, which we see on the chart in the form of consolidation. Unlike the SP500, the NQ100 has not gone beyond the sidewall, and in general it would be logical to consider a move to the 50% zone or lower boundary, but the strong FVG BISI that was formed on Wednesday on the interest rate release is a key area for further movement decisions.

Overall the situation on the charts looks like a long term AMD with upward manipulation and extension in a downward direction. You can clearly see this on the chart of the Dow30 index. This pattern tells us about the possible beginning of a long-term downtrend, which can lead us to a fall of up to -10% according to the weekly chart.

https://www.tradingview.com/x/RAhdx1Jl/