Cryptology Blog Crypto News Weekly plan - 04/22 - 04/26/2024

Weekly plan - 04/22 - 04/26/2024

ARTICLE BY

Cryptology

15 MIN READ

Crypto News

21 April 2024

Content

[show]

[hide]

Macro

Next week sees the release of manufacturing/service sector data in Germany, France and the US. There will also be US preliminary GDP, pending home sales, core personal consumption expenditures and consumer sentiment.

We advise to pay attention to events that cause uncertainty in price movement:

Thursday - Advance GDP q/q.

Friday - Core PCE Price Index m/m.

Tuesday

EUR (Euro) / French Flash Manufacturing PMI - 10:15 a.m.

Advance French Flash Manufacturing PMI.

S&P Global conducts a monthly survey of purchasing managers. Managers are asked to answer questions related to current inventories in the company's warehouses, the number of new requests for replenishment of warehouses, new orders and their prices, as well as employment in the company, production workload and current business conditions.

Flash is a preliminary index that is refined a week later in the Finale (final) version. More often than not, the Finale version does not make many adjustments, so the focus is always on the preliminary (earliest) index.

Production is one of the basic elements of any economy and is at the very beginning of the chain of creating goods that are then consumed by people. Since every manufacturer is a professional in their industry, they actively monitor market demand and understand the current market trend.

If a manufacturer sees a deteriorating market situation, it makes no sense for them to load production capacity, invest in new facilities and hiring, and purchase new raw materials. A large number of related very important elements of the economy suffer, such as the labor market, consumption, construction and many others.

France is Europe's second economy and a major exporter of goods. It is very important to keep an eye on producer sentiment as France is a major contributor to the EU's supply of goods.

Producer sentiment has been falling since the beginning of 2023. Very high refinancing rates are to blame, businesses cannot raise capital for active production. The further they raise/hold the rate, the more the manufacturing sector will stagnate, affecting the economy as a whole.

The latest actual rate (45.8) was lower than forecasted (47.5). The EU economy is more strongly tied to the refinancing rate than the US economy. The high rate was regularly raised by the ECB, which caused the situation to worsen and the economy to deteriorate.

The current market forecast is 46.9.

You can read more here.

EUR (Euro) / French Flash Services PMI - 10:15 am

Preliminary French Flash Services PMI.

S&P Global conducts a monthly survey among purchasing managers. Managers are asked to answer questions related to new orders and their prices, employment, workload and current business conditions.

Flash - preliminary index, which is refined a week later in Finale (final) version. More often than not, the final version does not make any particular adjustments, so the focus is always on the preliminary (earliest) index.

The service sector is the most important element of the modern economy of any country, making a large contribution to GDP. A large number of population works in services and most of the consumer demand is accumulated in them. As the service sector is not so strongly tied to serious capital investments, it is less tied to credit rates for attracting new capital investments.

If a company sees the economy deteriorating, it makes no sense for it to make active plans for growth. The service sector is very much tied to the income of the population. If people will buy food and clothes in any case, they are likely to postpone going on vacation or subscribing to a new resource.

The last actual indicator (47.8) turned out to be lower than the forecasted one (48.8).

The current market forecast is 48.9.

You can read more here.

EUR (Euro) / German Flash Manufacturing PMI - 10:30 PM

Preliminary index of business activity in the manufacturing sector in Germany.

S&P Global conducts a monthly survey among purchasing managers. Managers are asked to answer questions related to current inventories in the company's warehouses, the number of new requests for replenishment of warehouses, new orders and their prices, as well as employment in the company, the workload of production and the current business conditions.

Flash is a preliminary index that is refined a week later in the Finale (final) version. More often than not, the final version does not make any particular adjustments, so the focus is always on the preliminary (earliest) index.

Germany is the first economy in Europe and the third largest exporter of goods in the world. The country is a major center of mechanical engineering and chemical industry. Unlike France, which is the second country in terms of the number of nuclear power plants, Germany has turned towards green energy and is very dependent on natural gas. After the outbreak of war in Ukraine, Germany drastically cut gas supplies from Russia, which hit the manufacturing sector very hard.

Manufacturers' sentiment has been falling since March 2021. There were a few positive spikes in the index, but the decline has continued. In addition to the energy problems, refinancing rates are also superimposed. The further they raise/hold the rate, the more the manufacturing sector will stagnate, affecting the economy as a whole.

The most recent actual rate (41.6) was lower than projected (43.1). A high refinancing rate worsens the possibility of profitable capital investment, as long as the situation continues, the manufacturing sector will stagnate.

The current market forecast is 42.8.

Thursday

EUR (Euro) / Italian Bank Holiday - All Day.

The Day of Liberation from Fascism and German occupation during World War II is Italy's national holiday.

The Italian economy is big enough, but not so big that it creates a massive outflow of liquidity from the market.

USD (US Dollar) / Advance GDP q/q - 15:30

Important data having a serious impact on the volatility of price movement!

Preliminary Quarterly Change in U.S. Real GDP.

TheBureau of Economic Analysis publishes an inflation-adjusted measure of the change in the value of all goods and services produced by the economy.

GDP is the most important indicator of economic development, so it is treated very carefully. Many economic and political decisions are made based on the indicator.

A slight increase in consumer spending, a decrease in business spending on equipment purchases and investment in non-residential real estate has a positive impact on GDP growth.

The latest actual rate (3.3%) was higher than the forecast (2.0%).

The current market forecast is 2.5%.

You can read more here.

USD (US Dollar) / Unemployment Claims - 15:30

Unemployment Claims.

TheUS Department of Labor releases weekly claims data. The indicator is based on the citizens who applied for unemployment benefits for the first time in the last week.

The indicator is very important because it shows the strength/weakness of the labor market. If people are employed, they earn wages and consume services and goods. This can influence the rise in consumer inflation.

At the moment, the Fed is actively fighting inflation. A strong labor market indicates to the central bank that the economy is holding up and the current inflation situation will continue.

The more jobless claims, the better for the Fed's actions. The fewer jobless claims, the worse for the Fed's actions - they have to raise the rate even more.

The latest release of the rate (212K) was below the forecast (215K). The labor market remains stable. For this reason, there is no particular increase in unemployment.

The current market forecast is 215 thousand.

You can read more here.

USD (US Dollar) / Pending Home Sales m/m - 17:00

Change in the number of homes (secondary market) under contract for sale but still awaiting a closing transaction.

TheNational Association of Realtors publishes monthly data on the change in the number of secondary market homes for sale.

Real estate is the engine of the economy. The more bids find the final buyer, the more it affects the economy. The likelihood of starting renovations after buying a home is very high. Any repairs or changes are a waste of money on building materials, furniture, professionals and more. A loan is often taken out for renovations, which forces you to pay interest in the future and improve the bank.

You can read about the impact of real estate on the economy here.

The latest release of the index (1.6%) was higher than the forecast (1.4%).

The current market forecast is 0.9%.

You can read more here.

Friday

USD (US Dollar) / Core PCE Price Index m/m - 15:30

Important data with a serious impact on the volatility of the price movement!

Change in the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures Index.

TheBureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) releases the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures Index every month, about 30 days after the end of the previous month. The calculation takes the prices of consumer goods excluding energy and food (Core).

Energy and food prices are considered to be very volatile, so economists use the Core index for a more accurate measure.

Consumer spending prices account for most of the inflation as people are the main buyers of goods. This is a very important macroeconomic parameter and indicator, as it is the last in the chain of inflation and shows the real situation in the economy.

Inflation is dangerous because money is constantly depreciating. This causes very big economic and social problems, which, with uncontrolled growth, can even lead to civil conflicts and wars. This has already happened in history. That is why the government is watching this parameter very closely and doing everything possible to influence the price growth.

At the moment, the Fed is making every effort to curb the growth of inflation. The main tool is the increase in refinancing rates. The higher the rate, the higher the borrowing and lending. Expensive loans and borrowing - people can't buy new goods, houses, cars. Lack of great demand for goods - manufacturers make fewer orders, do not increase production capacity and thus do not increase prices at their level.

All of this should lower overall inflation and bring the system to a stable state. So far, the Fed is coping, but new problems are constantly emerging, and the tools to influence the situation are unfortunately limited.

Inflation is measured by two main indicators - CPI (consumer price index) and PCE (personal consumption expenditure index).

CPI is considered to be the mass indicator, but it has a big problem - it shows changes very slowly and does not take into account dynamics so well.

In order to get around these limitations, the PCE index - a more sensitive index - was used.

What is the basis for the difference in indices?

The share of certain goods in consumption.

When the prices of certain goods rise, consumers may switch to other goods. CPI uses a rigid basket calculation of these goods and the specific weight of these goods in the basket. PCE tries to take into account the change in demand, due to which it better accounts for changes in prices and consumption.

What kind of prices are taken as settlement prices.

While CPI looks at prices of goods consumed by consumers, PCE takes data on the prices at which goods are sold by the producer.

Price Coverage.

CPI takes into account only the prices of the products consumed. PCE takes into account the costs of insurance, health care, and so on (this is also an important component in people's lives).

Dynamics of variables calculation formulas.

Indexes use different formulas for calculation. CPI considers a certain set of goods, PCE tries to take into account the change in the demand of consumers (they replace expensive goods with cheaper ones).

The PCE index is very important, as the Fed mainly uses it for its calculations.

The latest actual rate (0.3%) was equal to the forecasted rate (0.3%).

The current market forecast is 0.3%.

You can read more here.

USD (US Dollar) / Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment - 15:30

Revised (core) U.S. Consumer Sentiment.

TheUniversity of Michigan publishes Consumer Sentiment based on a survey of citizens answering questions about the current and future state of the economy. The main version is released 2 weeks after the release of preliminary data.

The indicator shows how consumers feel at the current moment, as well as what they expect in the future. If they feel negative, it indicates a possible decrease in consumption in the future, which worsens the economic situation. If they feel positive, it indicates a possible increase in consumption in the future, which improves the economic situation.

As part of the fight against inflation, this indicator in conjunction with consumer incomes, consumption can be a good indicator for subsequent actions of the Fed.

The indicator has been in an uptrend since November. The actual indicator (79.4) was higher than forecasted (76.5).

The current market forecast is 77.8.

You can read more here.

Crypto

BTC/USDT

Monthly

https://www.tradingview.com/x/1NeFjKnK/

There are 9 days left until the monthly chart closes. So if we suddenly close above 69000, there will be no pullback, but this is something of a fantasy, so here we will just wait.

Weekly

https://www.tradingview.com/x/xF1Oufr9/

There was some very cool liquidity work here and the weekly bar looks promising.

I'm sticking to the fact that we can enter a consolidation in this range, all the way through May, but in ideal conditions, if price grabs 59000 - would be handy for us, as a lot of demand stands at 59000 - this zone may not be there and we'll go to 80000.

Daily

https://www.tradingview.com/x/wShlMPix/

As the price has been able to hold above 65000. The main concern for the asset is not to get strong selling in the 69000 zone, as a price close above these marks will affect the high update.

4Н

https://www.tradingview.com/x/T6nycPgv/

I am interested in the first two types of turn of events: fixing the daily period above 66000 to confirm the structure and growth to 69000, and there the reaction of the coin to the level or a deep type pullback to the zone of 63000 and exit upwards. Short positions are not interesting to consider yet.

Dominance

https://www.tradingview.com/x/4tDmFACu/

Everything is very simple here, we fall loudly down or give another update of the maximum and there comes a succession of altcoins to show strength.

ETH/USDT

Monthly

https://www.tradingview.com/x/uENm3gNi/

For spot buying of ether, this is the best entry point. The March low was captured and if the month closes well above the last March low, it will be a good sign for a continuation of the rally to 5000.

Weekly

https://www.tradingview.com/x/exTFkwVE/

There are 2 types here:

We accumulate without updating the loy and a few weeks later go higher.
We give a new update and price catches demand in the 2717 zone and then gives us 5000.

Daily

https://www.tradingview.com/x/79QEcVeL/

Nothing different from the older periods here. If we can close the day above 3279 - it will be a good reason for growth of altcoins and ether, but for now we just wait and buy back altcoins little by little.

https://www.tradingview.com/x/mSHZXuat/

No pure structure here like BTS, so ether is a bit weaker. You need to be careful here before opening futures trades - I am interested in waiting for a decline to 3036 and only then making decisions, but if the approach to this zone is accompanied by a sharp drop, I will further wait for the day to close above 2832.

ETH/BTC

Weekly

https://www.tradingview.com/x/pbzYAkrJ/

No change.

FX & Stock market

DXY

Weekly

https://www.tradingview.com/x/0VqQ7J2h/

Last week showed us a breakdown of the upper boundary of the global consolidation and closed above it, which generally allows us to consider the continuation of the upward movement to the next target in the form of External BSL (107.4). However, the week closed with a pin bar, which is a reversal pattern and may indicate a potential return to consolidation. To confirm further movement, one of the plans will be to work the price with PWL.

Daily

The daily timeframe gives a more logical picture, after the test of the GAP zone, mentioned in the last analysis, the price formed a return to the global consolidation level, where with the test of FVG BISI and consolidation above the level, formed a strong low (ITL), which logically should not be removed.

Based on this information we can assume two scenarios:

The transition of the price into a short-term consolidation stage, at least until Friday, where the data on GDP, unemployment, housing sales and most importantly the change in inflation (Core PCE) will be released on Friday. We dare to assume that Mon-Sat will be weakly volatile and form liquidity.

Continuation of the upward movement starting on Mon, on the background of many Flash PMI data releases, where the price is more likely to be delivered with the External BSL by Fri-Fri

Overall, we advise to stick to the upward context and work on OF movement.

EURUSD

Weekly

https://www.tradingview.com/x/hbIgPuHZ/

On the weekly timeframe there are no special changes, except for the formed FVG SIBI, which together with PWH can be a good area of interest for news manipulation in the read-through.

Daily

https://www.tradingview.com/x/UpCZFSa6/

The plan from last week's analysis is still valid, but stretched in the context of two weeks, last week as expected showed a correction leaving the high under the level of 1.0700, which could be a good area to consider a reversal to the downside. The optimal decision would be to wait for price to come out of consolidation or to work from deviations.

GBPUSD

Daily

https://www.tradingview.com/x/cEJ4A0Pt/

The GBPUSD pair has perfectly worked out the plan from last week's analysis, where we considered a retest of the broken 1.2500 level, and a continuation of the move towards the removal of the Internal SSL (1.2373).

Now the optimal solution would be to consider a correction to the OB zone, possibly with a re-test of the 1.2500 level, and a move down to the next key level of 1.2300 (1.2280).

SP500 / NQ100

Weekly

https://www.tradingview.com/x/6CS3JJ7l/

Very interesting last week, which is the biggest down week since the opening of 2024. In last week's analysis we favored fundamentals over chart analysis, where we pointed to a sell-off due to high inflation data and uncertainty from the Fed to lower rates (or raise them).

Thus last week worked out perfectly for us and all targets were removed. The most important thing to keep in mind is that both indices are consolidating below the past ATH (high 2022) and have already lost about 8%.

If the Core PCE data comes out high, it will be another trigger for a complete sell-off in the stock markets, which will snowball downward.

Personally, I believe that the bearish trend is already in place and we may see -30% on both indices soon.

Crypto investors should be careful, often stock markets pull BTC with them, but so far the logic of "protective asset" is working and BTC is out of correlation with US stock indices. But don't focus on that, always have plans for potential drawdowns.

Daily

https://www.tradingview.com/x/yS0FWrLj/

SP500: The index is near the key psychological level of 5000, from where we could see a short-term reaction upwards, but maxing out to a re-test of the past ATH (high 2022), where it could then reverse to the downside and continue to rally.

NQ100: The value is now inside the OB zone, if we expect a correction then to the 17500 level from where the downward rally will continue.

It should be taken into account that the current week's movement is strongly influenced by Core PCE data, which will determine further narratives on the US stock market. We assume that Core PCE will come out at the level of 0.4% from the forecasted 0.3%