Weekly plan - 01.04 - 05.04.2024

Macro

Next week the data on the state of the manufacturing sector in the US, inflation in Germany, the US labor market will be released.

We advise to pay attention to events that cause uncertainty in price movement:

Wednesday - ADP Non-Farm Employment Change.

Friday - Average Hourly Earnings m/m, Non-Farm Employment Change, Unemployment Rate.

Monday

EUR (Euro) / French Bank Holiday - All Day

Easter Monday.

Easter Monday is a Christian holiday celebrated the day after Easter Sunday. It used to be celebrated as Easter Week in many places, but in the 19th century it was reduced to a one-day celebration.

As France is the second economy in the European Union, the market will be missing major bank volumes. Usually low volumes cause chaotic price movements, or low volatility.

EUR (Euro) / German Bank Holiday - All Day

Easter Monday.

Easter Monday is a Christian holiday celebrated the day after Easter Sunday. It used to be celebrated as Easter week in many places, but in the 19th century it was reduced to a one-day celebration.

As Germany is the largest economy in the European Union, the market will be missing major bank volumes. Usually low volumes cause chaotic price movements, or low volatility.

EUR (Euro) / Italian Bank Holiday - All Day

Easter Monday.

Easter Monday is a Christian holiday celebrated the day after Easter Sunday. It used to be celebrated as Easter week in many places, but in the 19th century it was reduced to a one-day celebration.

As Italy is the third economy in the European Union, the market will be missing major bank volumes. Usually low volumes cause chaotic price movements, or low volatility.

USD (US Dollar) / ISM Manufacturing PMI - 17:00

Index of business activity in the manufacturing sector.

TheInstitute for Supply Management (ISM) conducts a monthly survey of purchasing managers. Managers are asked to respond to questions related to current inventories in company warehouses, the number of new replenishment requests, new orders and their prices, as well as employment, production utilization and current business conditions.

Manufacturing is one of the basic elements of any economy and is at the very beginning of the chain of creating goods that are then consumed by people. Since every manufacturer is a professional in their industry, they actively monitor market demand and understand the current market trend.

If a manufacturer sees a deteriorating market situation, it makes no sense for them to load production capacity, invest in new facilities and hiring, and purchase new raw materials. A large number of related very important elements of the economy, such as the labor market, consumption, construction and many others, suffer.

The latest actual reading (47.8) was lower than the forecast (49.5).

The current market forecast is 48.5.

You can read more here.

Tuesday

EUR (Euro) / German Prelim CPI m/m - All Day

German Prelim CPI for the month.

DE Statis publishes an indicator based on the change in prices of goods and services purchased by consumers. It is one of the most important indicators in the calculation of inflation, as consumer prices account for a large part of overall inflation.

Germany's preliminary index of consumer price change is an early indication of price changes. On the day the information is released, data is collected throughout the country throughout the day. The actual consumer price index will be released two weeks later.

For a year now, central banks in most countries have been fighting inflation by raising refinancing rates. The decline in inflation suggests that the work is being done successfully.

The latest actual rate (0.4%) was lower than the forecast (0.5%).

The current market forecast is 0.4%.

You can read more here.

USD (US Dollar) / JOLTS Job Openings - 17:00

Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS).

TheUS Federal Bureau of Statistics releases monthly statistics on the number of job openings in the labor market. The number has a time lag of 35 days because collecting such a large amount of data is quite difficult. The data is collected as part of the JOLTS program - Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey.

The number of job openings is an important indicator of the health of the economy. When the economy grows, new companies open and existing companies expand. To support this expansion, workers are needed. To recruit them, companies post job openings.

If we see a positive change in the number of job openings, it means that the economy is actively growing and needs new workers.

If we see a negative change in the number of job openings, it means that the economy is either stagnating or beginning to shrink.

As part of the fight against inflation, the Fed is trying to slow down the economy. One of the most important factors affecting inflation is people's consumption. The safer people feel about their current situation, the more they consume. This causes a huge cascading effect throughout the economy. If people no longer feel safe, they start to consume less and the economy along the chain starts to actively slow down.

The main factor in people's security is employment and the ability to get a paycheck. Even though the labor market is quite stable, the decrease in the number of applications is the first step to worsen this condition. Companies can't hire new people, the next step could be layoffs

The number of vacancies has been constantly falling for six months already, which indicates that the development of enterprises is slowing down and they are switching to the economy mode, as well as restoring the balance between supply and demand on the labor market.

The latest release of this indicator (8.86 million) was almost equal to the forecasted value (8.80 million). In a medium-term view of the situation, this looks more like a rebound. High refinancing rates will continue to weigh on this indicator as the demand for new labor is steadily decreasing.

The current market forecast is 8.79 million.

More details can be found here.

Wednesday

USD (US Dollar) / ADP Non-Farm Employment Change - 3:15 pm

Important data that has a serious impact on the volatility of the price movement!

Non-Farm Employment Change, excluding the agricultural sector and the government.

ADP Research Institute publishes monthly statistics on changes in the labor market based on the data received during the month.

The indicator is based on an automated analysis of payroll data for more than 25 million workers. The indicator is released earlier than official government data. Since the ADP indicator is released earlier, it has a greater impact on the market.

Employment is one of the most important macroeconomic indicators, as it allows earning money used for consumption. If a person is laid off from work, he/she is no longer active and is more likely to file for unemployment to receive benefits. This is additional pressure on the budget.

Since the Fed's main task at the moment is to cool down the economy, the employment rate is used as one of the main indicators when making decisions on raising/lowering the refinancing rates, as well as the duration of keeping the rate in a certain range of values.

Employment growth indicates activity in the economy. New companies are opening, people are getting jobs, getting paid and spending their paychecks. Companies pay taxes and order raw materials and services for their operations. This affects a very long chain of intermediaries.

A decline in employment indicates stagnation, or a decline in the economy. Companies are closing down, or going into austerity mode. People are being laid off from their jobs because of cost optimization. They cannot be active participants in the economy and many elements of the economy suffer.

Starting in the summer, hiring slows down. Most likely the labor market is starting to weaken and a stronger downward wave will soon begin.

The latest release of the indicator (140k) was below the forecast (149k).

The current market forecast is 149k.

You can read more here.

USD (US Dollar) / ISM Services PMI - 17:00

Services Business Activity Index.

TheInstitute for Supply Management (ISM) conducts a monthly survey among purchasing managers. Managers are asked to answer questions related to new orders and their prices, factory employment, workload and current business conditions.

The service sector is the most important sector of the U.S. GDP, accounting for about 80% of the total GDP. Companies are keenly aware of market conditions and make business development plans on that basis.

If a company sees the economy deteriorating, it makes no sense for it to actively plan for growth. The service sector is very much tied to the income of the population. If people will buy food and clothes anyway, they will most likely postpone going on vacation or subscribing to a new resource.

Since the service sector is not so strongly tied to serious capital investments, it is less tied to the growth of prices for any raw materials. The index has been growing for 6 months due to the growth of demand for services, but since September the decline has continued. At the same time, the services sector has the greatest influence on the current stability of the labor market.

The latest release of the index (52.6) was below the forecast (53.0).

The current market forecast is 52.7.

More details can be found here.

USD (US Dollar) / Fed Chair Powell Speaks - 19:10

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell speaks at the Stanford Forum.

An important event, as the Fed Chairman has the biggest weight on the financial markets. Powell's speech can indicate the Fed's future actions.

Anexample of such a speech is talking to teachers.

Thursday

USD (US Dollar) / Unemployment Claims - 15:30

Unemployment Claims.

TheU.S. Department of Labor releases weekly claims data. The indicator is based on the citizens who applied for unemployment benefits for the first time in the last week.

The indicator is very important because it shows the strength/weakness of the labor market. If people are employed, they earn wages and consume services and goods. This can influence the rise in consumer inflation.

At the moment, the Fed is actively fighting inflation. A strong labor market indicates to the central bank that the economy is holding up and the current inflation situation will continue.

The more jobless claims, the better for the Fed's actions. The fewer jobless claims, the worse for the Fed's actions - they have to raise the rate even more.

The latest release of the rate (210K) came in just below the forecast (212K). The labor market remains stable. For this reason, there is no particular increase in unemployment.

The current market forecast is 214 thousand.

You can read more here.

Friday

USD (US Dollar) / Average Hourly Earnings m/m - 15:30

Important data that has a serious impact on the volatility of the price movement!

Average Hourly Earnings (excluding agricultural industry).

TheU.S. Federal Bureau of Statistics publishes monthly statistics on wage changes based on the data received for the month

Wage growth is one of the most important factors affecting inflation. The more money people receive, the more they can spend. At the same time, businesses and service companies raise prices to compensate for wage increases. This has an even greater impact on inflation.

As long as consumer activity remains at the same level, businesses and service providers will not experience difficulties and this indicator will remain close to the forecasted values.

The latest release of the indicator (0.1%) was below the forecast (0.2%).

The current market forecast is 0.3%.

You can read more here.

USD (US Dollar) / Non-Farm Employment Change - 15:30

Important data that has a serious impact on the volatility of the price movement!

Non-Farm Employment Change.

TheU.S. Federal Bureau of Statistics publishes monthly statistics on changes in the labor market based on monthly data.

Employment is one of the most important macroeconomic indicators, as it allows earning money used for consumption. If a person has been laid off from work, they are no longer active and are more likely to file for unemployment in order to receive benefits. This is additional pressure on the budget.

Since the Fed's main task at the moment is to cool down the economy, the employment rate is used as one of the main indicators when making decisions on raising/lowering the refinancing rates, as well as the duration of keeping the rate in a certain range of values.

Employment growth indicates activity in the economy. New companies are opening, people are getting jobs, getting paid and spending their paychecks. Companies pay taxes and order raw materials and services for their operations. This affects a very long chain of intermediaries.

A decline in employment indicates stagnation, or a decline in the economy. Companies are closing down, or going into austerity mode. People are being laid off from their jobs because of cost optimization. They cannot be active participants in the economy and a large number of elements of the economy suffer.

The latest actual figure (275 thousand) was higher than the forecast (198 thousand).

The current market forecast is 205 thousand.

You can read more here.

USD (US Dollar) / Unemployment Rate - 15:30

Important data that has a serious impact on the volatility of the price movement!

Unemployment Rate.

TheU.S. Federal Bureau of Statistics publishes monthly statistics on changes in the labor market based on monthly data. The percentage of the total labor force that is unemployed and actively looking for work during the previous month.

A broader parameter of employment discussed above. Used as a general indicator to analyze current labor market conditions.

The labor market is currently quite stable and although the manufacturing sector is under pressure and the services sector is likely to start its decline, these are lagging factors that will play out a little later. Only after that it will be possible to see the impact on employment.

The latest actual figure (3.9%) was higher than the forecast (3.7%).

The current market forecast is 3.9%.

More details can be found here.

Crypto

BTC/USDT

Monthly

https://www.tradingview.com/x/cOBnkn8M/

Nothing changed, I expect a close above the high here to continue the upward movement further.

Weekly

https://www.tradingview.com/x/98YMAWDs/

Similar situation here, the price has been constantly receiving supply near the ATX, so any close above the weekly bar will have a positive impact on further upside.

4Н

https://www.tradingview.com/x/TfGdxif0/

After the close of the month, I'm expecting a price extension here where we can snag compression from below and then head for further upside.

ETH/USDT.

Monthly

https://www.tradingview.com/x/qafJsfS9/

Ether looks weaker, but if we can close above 3581.60, I think it will be an important reason not to get a deep correction, so all focus is on this level.

Weekly

https://www.tradingview.com/x/1Ijnf2NO/

Here on the weekly chart I like things very much for longs without a correction below the current week's low. I am more in favor of the first scenario if the engulfment is full last week, however if there is weakness we may give a pullback to the second scenario

Daily

https://www.tradingview.com/x/xLjJZs93/

Most likely with a close above 3672 - we will not go lower and we will continue to grow, but I want to wait for the close of the week.

ETH/BTC

Weekly

https://www.tradingview.com/x/rOYvCreA/

I think you're all used to what's going on here.

FX & Stock market

DXY

Weekly

https://www.tradingview.com/x/rF7nUg9Z/

The Fed's message of fighting inflation but not cutting the rate too soon, though we will cut it soon anyway, continues to create uncertainty among market participants, but it is certain^ that demand for the dollar will continue as long as the rate remains unchanged. Which, in itself, tells us about the strengthening of the dollar against other currencies. On the technical side, we expect to reach the upper boundary of the global consolidation (105.8), and the removal of the Outer BSL (105.00) this week.

Daily

https://www.tradingview.com/x/kowdBNcc/

H4

https://www.tradingview.com/x/YumTkHrK/

There is a clear upward orderflow on the medium-term timeframes (D-H4), where last week leaves us with a zone of interest in the form of OB + GAP. Since Monday is a bank holiday in EU countries, we expect the low of the week to be formed on Tuesday with the upward orderflow continuing to External BSL (105.00).

EURUSD

Weekly

https://www.tradingview.com/x/cIu2REFu/

According to the weekly timeframe EURUSD is in the middle of the global consolidation. After testing the upper boundary of consolidation at the opening of the year, we can observe a downward trend, where we can consider the lower boundary of consolidation as a target. Taking into account the strong dollar, we expect the continuation of the downward trend, the target of the current week will be the External SSL (1.0695).

Daily

https://www.tradingview.com/x/tifRPBHx/

On the daily timeframe we observe a clear downward orderflow, where the price has left a zone of interest in the form of FVG+OB. We expect the formation of the high of the week on Tuesday on the test of this zone. The main target is External SSL (1.0695), but we should be careful as this low is a zone of high resistance (HRLR) and may not be removed.

H4

https://www.tradingview.com/x/X1Ka45cs/

On the medium-term timeframe (H4) we observe correction formation, we expect upward movement from FVG BISI on Mon-Fri, where then, when testing the -OB zone, we will expect reversal and continuation of downward orderflow.

GBPUSD

Weekly

https://www.tradingview.com/x/UQpeEbN2/

The situation on GBPUSD is quite clear, after the removal of the External BSL, we expect a downward movement to the External SSL (1.2500).

Daily

https://www.tradingview.com/x/iIGDKbKT/

H4

https://www.tradingview.com/x/6dO2xgpb/

On the daily timeframe we observe the removal of the internal liquidity pool, where last week formed an upward corrective orderflow, which is clearly visible from the H4 timeframe. We expect the upward movement to continue with the target of overlapping FVG SIBI, where we will then consider a reversal and continuation of the downward trend to the External SSL target

SP500 / NQ100

Weekly

https://www.tradingview.com/x/5N4ftJSS/

Stock indices SP500 and NQ100 have ambiguous situation, as these assets have been constantly forming discordance for the last month, which is connected with possible overflow of funds from NQ100 shares to other sectors, profit taking in AI sector, and investors hedging their portfolios against the background of uncertainty in the future Fed policy. Of course, after J.Powell's speech we can consider the continuation of this rally, but it is worth noting that NQ100 is clearly losing ground.

On the technical side, the SP500 index has left equal highs BSL, with last week forming a weekly FVG BISI. Meanwhile, the NQ100 is in consolidation.

Daily

https://www.tradingview.com/x/q5BqNqTD/

The daily timeframe clearly shows the discordance and weakness in the NQ100 index.

On the SP500 index, the two liquidity pools on either side should be observed.

On the NQ100 index we observe a breaker + manipulation test, which indicates a potential upward movement this week.

H4

https://www.tradingview.com/x/Ctfzii5D/

According to the medium-term chart (H4) we assume an upward movement on both indices with a possible raskorelatsiya.

SP500 may go lower to overlap FV, from where a reversal can be considered.

NQ100 is optimal to consider long from current values.

In general, the situation will develop based on the data on two important economic indicators - ISM Manufacturing PMI and ISM Services PMI. Taking into account D. Powell's dovish statements and relatively good inflationary indicators, positive dynamics in industry and services is expected, which is what we see on Forecast. ISM Manufacturing PMI and ISM Services PMI may have a positive impact on the SP500 / NQ100 indices.