Weekly plan - 04/29 - 05/03/2024
Macro
Next week sees the release of German inflation, consumer confidence, US labor market, US manufacturing and service sector data. The FOMC meeting on the refinancing rate will be held.
We advise to pay attention to events that cause uncertainty in price movement:
Wednesday - ADP Non-Farm Employment Change, Federal Funds Rate, FOMC Statement, FOMC Press Conference.
Friday - Average Hourly Earnings m/m, Non-Farm Employment Change, Unemployment Rate.
Monday
EUR / German Prelim CPI m/m - All Day
German Prelim CPI for the month.
DE Statis publishes an indicator based on the change in prices of goods and services purchased by consumers. It is one of the most important indicators in the calculation of inflation, as consumer prices account for a large part of overall inflation.
Germany's preliminary index of consumer price change is an early indication of price changes. On the day the information is released, data is collected throughout the country throughout the day. The actual consumer price index will be released two weeks later.
For a year now, central banks in most countries have been fighting inflation by raising refinancing rates. The decline in inflation suggests that the work is being done successfully.
The latest actual rate (0.4%) was lower than the forecast (0.5%).
The current market forecast is 0.6%.
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More details can be found here.
Tuesday
USD (US Dollar) / Employment Cost Index q/q - 15:30
Labor Cost Index.
Every quarter, about 30 days after the end of the quarter, theU.S. Federal Bureau of Statistics releases a measure of the change in the prices that businesses and the government pay for civilian labor.
This is an important indicator of the change in workers' compensation. Most often, any wage increase is passed on to consumers - the price of goods goes up.
Natural wage growth is a sign of a healthy economy, but a large jump in wage levels can lead to higher inflation.
The latest release of the indicator (0.9%) was below the forecast (1.0%).
The current market forecast is 1.0%.
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You can read more here.
USD (US Dollar) / CB Consumer Confidence - 17:00
Consumer Confidence Index.
The Conference Board releases an indicator based on a survey of about 3,000 households that asks them to rate current and future economic conditions, including labor availability, business conditions and overall economic conditions.
The indicator looks at how consumers are feeling at the current moment, as well as what they expect in the future. If they feel negative, it indicates a possible decrease in consumption in the future, which worsens the economic situation. If they feel positive, it indicates a possible increase in consumption in the future, which improves the economic situation.
The past two issues have shown a positive trend.
The most recent actual (104.7) was lower than the forecast (106.9).
The current market forecast is 104.0.
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You can read more here.
Wednesday
EUR (Euro) / French Bank Holiday - All Day
Labor Day.
The ECB's settlement system "TARGET" will be closed on this holiday. As most of the volumes pass through large financial institutions and banks, their absence from the market will cause liquidity outflows and chaotic volatility.
EUR (Euro) / German Bank Holiday - All Day
Labor Day.
The ECB's TARGET settlement system will be closed on this holiday. As most of the volumes pass through large financial institutions and banks, their absence from the market will cause liquidity outflows and chaotic volatility.
EUR (Euro) / Italian Bank Holiday - All Day
Labor Day.
The ECB's TARGET settlement system will be closed on this holiday. As most of the volumes pass through large financial institutions and banks, their absence from the market will cause liquidity outflow and chaotic volatility.
USD (US Dollar) / ADP Non-Farm Employment Change - 15:15
Important data that has a serious impact on the volatility of the price movement!
Non-Farm Employment Change, excluding the agricultural sector and the government.
ADP Research Institute publishes monthly statistics on changes in the labor market based on the data received during the month.
The indicator is based on an automated analysis of payroll data for more than 25 million workers. The indicator is released earlier than official government data. Since the ADP indicator is released earlier, it has a greater impact on the market.
Employment is one of the most important macroeconomic indicators, as it allows earning money used for consumption. If a person is laid off from work, he/she is no longer active and is more likely to file for unemployment to receive benefits. This is an additional pressure on the budget.
Since the Fed's main task at the moment is to cool down the economy, the employment indicator is used as one of the main ones when making decisions on raising/lowering the refinancing rates, as well as the duration of keeping the rate in a certain range of values.
Employment growth indicates activity in the economy. New companies are opening, people are getting jobs, getting paid and spending their paychecks. Companies pay taxes and order raw materials and services for their operations. This affects a very long chain of intermediaries.
A decline in employment indicates stagnation, or a decline in the economy. Companies are closing down, or going into austerity mode. People are being laid off from their jobs because of cost optimization. They cannot be active participants in the economy and many elements of the economy suffer.
Starting in the summer, hiring slows down. Most likely the labor market is starting to weaken and a stronger downward wave will soon begin.
The latest release of the indicator (184 thousand) was above the forecast (148 thousand).
The current market forecast is 179 thousand.
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You can read more here.
USD (US Dollar) / Final Manufacturing PMI - 16:45
Final Manufacturing PMI.
S&P releases revised data on the preliminary index released last week.
USD (US Dollar) / ISM Manufacturing PMI - 17:00
Index of business activity in the manufacturing sector.
TheInstitute for Supply Management (ISM) conducts a monthly survey of purchasing managers. Managers are asked to respond to questions related to current inventories in company warehouses, the number of new replenishment requests, new orders and their prices, as well as employment, production utilization and current business conditions.
Manufacturing is one of the basic elements of any economy and is at the very beginning of the chain of creating goods that are then consumed by people. Since every manufacturer is a professional in their industry, they actively monitor market demand and understand the current market trend.
If a manufacturer sees a deteriorating market situation, it makes no sense for them to load production capacity, invest in new facilities and hiring, and purchase new raw materials. A large number of related very important elements of the economy, such as the labor market, consumption, construction and many others, suffer.
The latest actual reading (50.3) was higher than the forecast (48.5).
The current market forecast is 50.1.
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You can read more here.
USD (US Dollar) / JOLTS Job Openings - 17:00
Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS).
TheUS Federal Bureau of Statistics releases monthly statistics on the number of job openings in the labor market. The number has a time lag of 35 days because collecting such a large amount of data is quite difficult. The data is collected as part of the JOLTS program - Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey.
The number of job openings is an important indicator of the health of the economy. When the economy grows, new companies open and existing companies expand. To support this expansion, workers are needed. To recruit them, companies post job openings.
If we see a positive change in the number of job openings, it means that the economy is actively growing and needs new workers.
If we see a negative change in the number of job openings, it means that the economy is either stagnating or beginning to shrink.
As part of the fight against inflation, the Fed is trying to put the brakes on the economy. One of the most important factors affecting inflation is people's consumption. The safer people feel about their current situation, the more they consume. This causes a huge cascading effect throughout the economy. If people no longer feel safe, they start to consume less and the economy along the chain starts to actively slow down.
The main factor in people's security is employment and the ability to get a paycheck. Even though the labor market is quite stable, the decrease in the number of applications is the first step to worsen this condition. Companies can't hire new people, the next step could be layoffs
The number of vacancies has been constantly falling for six months already, which indicates that the development of enterprises is slowing down and they are switching to the economy mode, as well as restoring the balance between supply and demand on the labor market.
The latest release of this indicator (8.76 million) was equal to the forecasted value (8.76 million). High refinancing rates will continue to weigh on this indicator as demand for new labor is steadily declining.
The current market forecast is 8.68 mln.
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You can read more here.
USD (US Dollar) / Federal Funds Rate - 21:00
Important data that has a serious impact on the volatility of the price movement!
The main refinancing rate in the US (Fed).
TheFed is voting on future actions with the refinancing rate.
The refinancing rate is the most important parameter affecting liquidity in the financial system. Depending on the size of the lending rate, the lending rates for companies and consumers depend.
Banks can borrow funds from the central bank at the current lending rate. In order to make money, they charge their interest and lend to companies and consumers. The higher the rate, the more interest the companies and consumers have to pay on the loan.
The refinancing rate is the most important tool to fight inflation. Without exotic influences (logistical collapse under Covid-19 and supply chain disruptions), inflation rises from increasing consumer demand. Companies start producing more and more to meet demand, while prices also rise. As companies start ordering more and more raw materials to produce, raw material prices also increase. A spiral of constantly rising prices is created.
Similar to a fire, you have to reduce the oxygen supply and the fire will start to shrink. The more expensive it becomes to get money, the less people start buying goods, the less businesses produce and the less the cost of raw materials increases.
Because of the problems with the heavy debt load, increasing the refinancing rate becomes an increasingly dangerous tool. However, the inflation situation may be improving, but the problems remain. For this reason, the rate is likely to remain at the same level.
The current market forecast is 5.5%.
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You can read more here.
USD (US Dollar) / FOMC Statement - 21:00
Important data that has a serious impact on the volatility of the price movement!
FOMC Monetary Policy Statement.
The FOMC Statement describes the current state of the economy, the Fed's economic and monetary policy outlook.
USD (US Dollar) / FOMC Press Conference - 21:30
Important data with a serious impact on the volatility of the price movement!
Fed Chairman Jerome Powell Press Conference.
Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will be answering questions from economists and journalists during the press conference after the announcement of the monetary policy decision.
A very important event, because in his speech the head of the central bank may mention information about future actions to change the refinancing rate.
Anexample of such a speech.
Thursday
USD (US Dollar) / Unemployment Claims - 15:30
Unemployment Claims.
TheUS Department of Labor releases weekly claims data. The indicator is based on the citizens who applied for unemployment benefits for the first time in the last week.
The indicator is very important because it shows the strength/weakness of the labor market. If people are employed, they earn wages and consume services and goods. This can influence the rise in consumer inflation.
At the moment, the Fed is actively fighting inflation. A strong labor market indicates to the central bank that the economy is holding up and the current inflation situation will continue.
The more jobless claims, the better for the Fed's actions. The fewer jobless claims, the worse for the Fed's actions - they have to raise the rate even more.
The latest release of the rate (207K) was below the forecast (214K). The labor market remains stable. For this reason, there is no particular increase in unemployment.
The current market forecast is 212 thousand.
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You can read more here.
Friday
USD (US Dollar) / Average Hourly Earnings m/m - 15:30
Important data that has a serious impact on the volatility of the price movement!
Average Hourly Earnings (excluding agricultural industry).
TheU.S. Federal Bureau of Statistics publishes monthly statistics on wage changes based on the data received for the month
Wage growth is one of the most important factors affecting inflation. The more money people receive, the more they can spend. At the same time, businesses and service companies raise prices to compensate for wage increases. This has an even greater impact on inflation.
As long as consumer activity remains at the same level, businesses and service providers will not experience difficulties and this indicator will remain close to the forecasted values.
The latest release of the indicator (0.3%) was equal to the forecast (0.3%).
The current market forecast is 0.3%.
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You can read more here.
USD (US Dollar) / Non-Farm Employment Change - 15:30
Important data that has a serious impact on the volatility of the price movement!
Non-Farm Employment Change.
TheU.S. Federal Bureau of Statistics publishes monthly statistics on changes in the labor market based on monthly data.
Employment is one of the most important macroeconomic indicators, as it allows earning money used for consumption. If a person is laid off from a job, they are no longer active and are more likely to file for unemployment in order to receive benefits. This is additional pressure on the budget.
Since the Fed's main task at the moment is to cool down the economy, the employment rate is used as one of the main indicators when making decisions on raising/lowering the refinancing rates, as well as the duration of keeping the rate in a certain range of values.
Employment growth indicates activity in the economy. New companies are opening, people are getting jobs, getting paid and spending their paychecks. Companies pay taxes and order raw materials and services for their operations. This affects a very long chain of intermediaries.
A decline in employment indicates stagnation, or a decline in the economy. Companies are closing down, or going into austerity mode. People are being laid off from their jobs because of cost optimization. They cannot be active participants in the economy and a large number of elements of the economy suffer.
The latest actual figure (303 thousand) was higher than the forecast (212 thousand).
The current market forecast is 243 thousand.
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You can read more here.
USD (US Dollar) / Unemployment Rate - 15:30
Important data that has a serious impact on the volatility of the price movement!
Unemployment Rate.
TheU.S. Federal Bureau of Statistics publishes monthly statistics on changes in the labor market based on monthly data. The percentage of the total labor force that is unemployed and actively looking for work during the previous month.
A broader parameter of employment discussed above. Used as a general indicator to analyze current labor market conditions.
The labor market is currently quite stable and although the manufacturing sector is under pressure and the services sector is likely to start its decline, these are lagging factors that will play out a little later. Only after that it will be possible to see the impact on employment.
The latest actual figure (3.8%) was below the forecast (3.9%).
The current market forecast is 3.8%.
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You can read more here.
USD (US Dollar) / ISM Services PMI - 17:00
Services Business Activity Index.
TheInstitute for Supply Management (ISM) conducts a monthly survey of purchasing managers. Managers are asked to answer questions related to new orders and their prices, factory employment, workload and current business conditions.
The service sector is the most important sector of the U.S. GDP, accounting for about 80% of the total GDP. Companies are keenly aware of market conditions and make business development plans on that basis.
If a company sees the economy deteriorating, it makes no sense for it to actively plan for growth. The service sector is very much tied to the income of the population. If people will buy food and clothes anyway, they will most likely postpone going on vacation or subscribing to a new resource.
Since the service sector is not so strongly tied to serious capital investments, it is less tied to the growth of prices for any raw materials. The index has been growing for 6 months due to the growth of demand for services, but since September the decline has continued. At the same time, the services sector has the greatest influence on the current stability of the labor market.
The latest release of the index (51.4) was below the forecast (52.8).
The current market forecast is 52.0.
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More details can be found here.
Crypto
BTC/USDT
Monthly
https://www.tradingview.com/x/NIVoCsOd/
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In 2 days the monthly candle will close and most likely after this event we can expect a manipulation with the target of capturing 59000, so I advise you to refrain from long positions and wait for the reaction of the opening of the month.
Weekly
https://www.tradingview.com/x/FOTWejRn/
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If I was asked what kind of price action I would like to see, it would be a capture of the weekly imbalance and then a gradual exit of price to areas above the high. However, one must realize that any plum could be more aggressive than we expect and I would not ignore a red scenario.
Daily
https://www.tradingview.com/x/V1iVhc7i/
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Last week's review didn't show anything - we didn't have a consolidation above the level and the price didn't reach the 69000 level to look short, so here we will go lower and renew the low or follow the format of the first plan, with the capture of 69000.
Dominance
https://www.tradingview.com/x/jWC5gFY0/
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This is the only scenario I am considering so far, of how we will have a dominance spillover. I emphasize that a few altcoins will show their strength at the moment when the final dominance dump happens and then liquidity will start flowing into all alts near the end of summer.
ETH/USDT
Monthly
https://www.tradingview.com/x/6NyUByg9/
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Relative to BTC, ether looks great, if we can stay above last month's body, some altcoins will be able to breathe air for the next few weeks, and the target could hit the April high.
Weekly
https://www.tradingview.com/x/FdYs3nM5/
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This was my plan to correct the price to 3007, but as you can see, the price did not test it and left the current ones - here I made a mistake that I waited for the third price return to the demand zone. In this case, I would like to believe that Mon-Wed will give a short correction to continue the trend, taking into account that the week and the month will close as it is now or even better.
Daily
https://www.tradingview.com/x/uhLKUfKj/
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I will like this format of working out, once price closes above 3279 - green light for all senior periods to go up.
ETH/BTC
Weekly
https://www.tradingview.com/x/i48lNeks/
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As you may have noticed, there are more than 5 words in this section, which means I have something to add: the monotonic dynamics of this chart tells us that every time BTC merges and consolidates - liquidity is distributed a little bit in ETH with BTC. Somewhat unfortunately, to get 100% upside and long momentum, we need to close the weekly period above 0.06117. Or update the low again to form a closer high.
FX
DXY
Weekly
https://www.tradingview.com/x/TAMyEU1A/
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Last week closed above the upper boundary of the global consolidation while balancing the weekly FVG BISI. We daresay that this formed a Long Term Low (LTL) that should not be taken down. External BSL (107.3) remains the target for the move.
Daily
https://www.tradingview.com/x/n7lei3kN/
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On the daily timeframe, during the test of the weekly FVG BISI, price formed +OB, which is currently a key POI to deliver to last week's high (PWH), or even the main target of External BSL. However, it is worth considering the Fed meeting and the rate decision on Wednesday, which will bring strong changes in the context, for this reason we advise to work off the move to PWH, and then look at the situation after the rate release.
EURUSD
Weekly
https://www.tradingview.com/x/DYx9ajav/
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Last week formed a correction back to balance FVG SIBI, testing the mirror level (1.072), while closing the week below FVG SIBI, indicating the continuation of the downward movement, taking into account DXY analytics.
Daily
https://www.tradingview.com/x/DK14EX1f/
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On the daily timeframe -OB was formed, which will be the starting point in the downward movement, the first target is last week's low (PWL), the main target is the lower boundary of consolidation (1.0500) and External SSL (1.0450).
GBPUSD
Daily
https://www.tradingview.com/x/2h7UMewx/
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As expected, last week the pound formed a correction to the level of 1.2500 where it closed the week. In this case, the situation is ambiguous, as we are in a global consolidation where we tested the lower boundary (1.2300), while we are on the deviation of an internal more local consolidation where we are testing the lower boundary (1.2500). When viewed from a deviation perspective, it is optimal to move higher towards 1.2800. We envision a small upward movement towards FVG SIBI to the 1.2600 zone, from where we will expect a reversal and continuation of the downward movement.
SP500
Daily
https://www.tradingview.com/x/gxDeL8yd/
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SP500 index after removal of Internal SSL in the context of full overlap of monthly FVG BISI, has formed a correction where it has currently reached the first POI in the form of FVG SIBI from where we can expect a reversal. However, it is worth noting that for now the upward OF is supported by block delivery and we have the last OB to hold the price. The decoupling should be expected on Wednesday at the Fed meeting.
NQ100
Daily
https://www.tradingview.com/x/4F9FxEh1/
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On NQ100 index we assume continuation of downward movement. After Internal SSL removal, the price has corrected and is currently at the key break level (18000). Taking into account the crossing of FVG SIBI and last week's high (PWH), we assume a test of 18000 with the formation of the week's high on Wednesday and downward movement.