Weekly plan - 02/12-02/16/2024

11 February 2024


Next week, data on consumer and manufacturing inflation, retail sales, the state of New York State's manufacturing sector, and consumer sentiment will be released.

We advise paying attention to the data that cause increased volatility:

Tuesday - Core CPI m/m.

Thursday - Empire State Manufacturing Index.

Friday - Core PPI m/m.

January's ISM Services PMI (the state of the US services sector) showed a significant increase, which is positive for the economy. The sharp improvement in the state of the service sector causes additional price increases as companies increase orders to meet demand.

At the same time, the labor market and consumer spending remain stable. This causes an increase in personal income, which allows for more borrowing.

The situation worries the Fed at this stage of the fight against inflation. For this reason, the lending rate will be held for a while longer.


USD (US Dollar) / Core CPI m/m - 15:30

Core CPI monthly change.

TheUS Federal Bureau of Statistics releases the Core CPI every month, about 16 days after the end of the previous month. The calculation is based on the prices of consumer goods, excluding energy and food (Core).

It is considered that energy and food prices are very volatile and take up only 1/4 of the whole index. For this reason, economists use the Core index for more accurate measurement.

Consumer prices account for most of the inflation, as people are the main buyers of goods. This is a very important macroeconomic parameter and indicator, which is the last in the chain of inflation and shows the real situation in the economy.

Inflation is dangerous because money is constantly depreciating. This causes very big economic and social problems, which, with uncontrolled growth, can even lead to civil conflicts and wars. This has already happened in history. That is why the government is watching this parameter very closely and doing everything possible to influence the price growth.

At the moment, the Fed is making every effort to curb the growth of inflation. The main tool is the increase in refinancing rates. The higher the rate, the higher the borrowing and lending. Expensive loans and borrowing - people can't buy new goods, houses, cars. Lack of large demand for goods - manufacturers make fewer orders, do not increase production capacity and thus do not increase prices at their level.

The latest actual rate (0.3%) was equal to the forecast (0.3%).

The current market forecast is 0.3%.

You can read more here.

USD (US Dollar) / CPI m/m - 15:30

Monthly change in the Consumer Price Index.

TheUS Federal Bureau of Statistics releases the Consumer Price Index every month, about 16 days after the end of the previous month. The calculation is based on the prices of consumer goods, including energy and food prices.

Since the index includes energy and food prices, it is more realistic and closer to ordinary people. The dependence of prices on energy costs has been described above.

In the USA, the infrastructure of cities is built in such a way that it is very difficult to get around without a car. The public transportation system there is not as well developed as in European cities. For this reason, the cost of fuel used to refuel their cars is very important for ordinary citizens. The same can be said about nutrition.

When all of this is taken into account, as with the example of comparing Core PPI and PPI, a very large volatility in performance is created. If you look at it from an academic point of view, it is superfluous information that doesn't play a role and it is smoothed out. If you look at it from a consumer point of view, this extra information is everything. Today you fill up a liter of gasoline for 55 hryvnias, tomorrow for 70, the day after tomorrow for 90, and in a week for 60. Not a very calm situation for an ordinary person.

The last actual figure (0.3%) was higher than the forecast (0.2%).

The current market forecast is 0.2%.

You can read more here.

USD (US Dollar) / CPI y/y - 15:30

Year-over-year change in the Consumer Price Index.

TheUS Federal Bureau of Statistics releases the Consumer Price Index every month, about 16 days after the end of the previous month. Consumer prices are calculated based on the prices of consumer goods, including energy and food prices.

The index is annualized. It is widely used in the media, as it is easier to explain for ordinary people. A large number of instruments related to social security and insurance are calculated on the basis of this index.

The last actual index (3.4%) was higher than forecasted (3.2%).

The current market forecast is 2.9%.

You can read more here.


USD (US Dollar) / Core Retail Sales m/m - 3:30 p.m.

Change in Core Retail Sales for the month.

TheU.S. Census Bureau releases monthly data on the change in Core Retail Sales for the month.

To calculate the Core, the data excluding auto sales is taken. Statistically, automobile sales account for about 20% of retail sales. Car prices are constantly changing due to strong demand and therefore create a lot of volatility.

As described in past reviews, economists try to fit any situation to a model. Volatility can create problems for these models, so they remove the volatile component from the calculation.

The retail sales baseline is very important because it is the first in the chain to determine consumer demand.

The more people buy goods, the less they become available in store warehouses. In order to supply the demand, stores start to order more and more goods from enterprises. Enterprises begin to actively purchase raw materials to produce these goods.

If people buy less goods, the stocks in the stores' warehouses remain and there is no point in making a new order to the enterprise. The chain that creates a positive impact on the economy does not work.

With the help of the retail sales indicator a large number of statistics are calculated, on the basis of which further decisions on the work of enterprises and government agencies are made.

At the moment, the main task of the Fed is to reduce inflation as carefully as possible. That's why the declining retail sales figure is a short-term positive, saying that the impact is working and they will reach the 2% inflation target in the long run.

The last release of the actual figure (0.4%) was higher than the forecast (0.2%).

The current market forecast is 0.1%.

More details can be found here.

USD (US Dollar) / Empire State Manufacturing Index - 15:30

New York State Manufacturing Index.

TheFederal Reserve Bank of New York releases the Empire State Manufacturing Index on a monthly basis. The index is based on a survey of manufacturing companies on business conditions, employment, shipments and new orders.

New York State is the fourth largest state in terms of population (20 million) and the third largest in terms of contribution to the nation's GDP ($2.05 trillion). No matter what anyone says about the US being the world's largest consumer (trade deficit of $948.1 billion), manufacturing is still very strong. There are a large number of localized brands covering almost all the needs of the citizens.

It is for this reason that manufacturing data is very important and can say a lot about the future dynamics of the economy as a whole. Since the basic element in the production of goods is enterprises, they are the best and fastest to react to changes in economic conditions. For the entire 23rd year, the indicator has more often than not been in strong negative territory, with few positive changes.

The latest release of the actual indicator (-43.7) was worse than the forecast (-4.9).

The current market forecast is -11.9.

You can read more here.

USD (US Dollar) / Retail Sales m/m - 15:30

Retail Sales Change for the month.

TheU.S. Census Bureau releases monthly data on the monthly change in Retail Sales.

To calculate the index, the data is taken into account the sales of automobiles. Statistically, automobile sales account for about 20% of retail sales. Car prices are constantly changing due to strong demand and therefore create a lot of volatility.

As described in past reviews, cars are a very important part of American life because the infrastructure is very spread out geographically and the transportation system is not as developed as in Europe.

Underreporting real statistics is not a good thing, but when compared to inflation and core inflation (CPI and Core CPI / PCE and Core PCE), car sales are not as important as rising food and energy prices.

You can not change a car for a long time and still own it. However, the car market in the US runs on credit. Mostly people do not fully own cars, but take it on lease or loan. After a certain period of use, they do not pay off the full loan for the current car change it and reallocate the loan to a new car. For this reason, the global aftermarket is filled with cars from the USA.

The impact on car sales is a decrease in the activity of dealers, manufacturers and banking institutions issuing car loans. The auto industry generates 3% of US GDP and creates actual and indirect jobs for 10 million people.

The last release of the actual rate (0.6%) was higher than the forecast (0.4%).

The current market forecast is -0.2%.

You can read more here.

USD (US Dollar) / Unemployment Claims - 15:30

Unemployment Claims.

TheUS Department of Labor releases weekly claims data. The indicator is based on the citizens who applied for unemployment benefits for the first time in the last week.

The indicator is very important because it shows the strength/weakness of the labor market. If people are employed, they earn wages and consume services and goods. This can influence the rise in consumer inflation.

At the moment, the Fed is actively fighting inflation. A strong labor market indicates to the central bank that the economy is holding up and the current inflation situation will continue.

The more jobless claims, the better for the Fed's actions. The fewer jobless claims, the worse for the Fed's actions - they have to raise the rate even more.

The latest rate release (218k) was lower than projected (221k). The labor market remains stable. For this reason, there is no particular increase in unemployment.

The current market forecast is 217 thousand.

You can read more here.


USD (US Dollar) / Core PPI m/m - 15:30

Important data with a serious impact on price movement volatility!

Change in the Core PPI for the month.

TheUS Federal Bureau of Statistics releases the Core PPI every month, about 13 days after the end of the previous month. To calculate it, prices are taken by major sectors of the economy, as well as by stages of production.

Core - a variant of the index calculation that excludes energy and food prices. It is used for "smoothing" the index and operational monitoring of price changes.

Energy is the most important sector of the modern economy. Energy is used to produce goods, to move transportation that moves produced goods, to light streets, to heat houses and much, much more.

The higher the price of energy, the higher the price of all other aspects of life. Rising/falling prices cascade down a long chain, affecting the prices of everything else.

Food is the most important component in human life. Without quality nutrition, a person cannot exist. Today, most of the food produced is done by machines. Raw materials are sown and harvested using specialized machines. It is then processed in factories by specialized machines. Energy binds this whole process together, as neither machines nor machines will work without energy - fuel and electricity obtained in various ways.

Since this is a basic element of human survival, the higher the prices of products, the faster they rise - people buy products en masse, fearing shortages and everything else.

In order to "smooth" the price growth, economists went for a trick and made an additional parameter that does not take into account energy and food prices. Even without taking these prices into account, in any case they indirectly affect everything because of their importance.

The producer price index is an important parameter that shows how prices change on the production side. Before a product hits the store shelves where people buy it, the product has to be produced. This is a whole chain of stages where raw materials are gradually processed into a product.

All these stages and transformations require different goods, equipment and so on. If prices increase at each of these stages - it affects the cost of the final product.

When a manufacturer realizes that the cost of his product is constantly increasing, he is left with two options for further pricing of the finished product:

  • Either reduce his margins. In simpler terms, start selling the product at a loss, and therefore earn less.
  • Or increase the cost of the product itself. In this case, the end buyer pays for the increase in production prices.

I think you realize that producers most often choose the second option. Therefore, the parameter of producer price growth actively influences the growth of commodity prices and consumer inflation.

The core producer price index has been in a downtrend for a year. More often than not, the actual change coincides with the predicted change.

After the COVID-19 lockdowns, which caused a large number of businesses to close and disrupted logistics, producer prices rose sharply. The main factor was that direct-to-consumer businesses were placing large numbers of orders because the goods were simply not reaching warehouses.

For example, you wanted to order 10 cars. You placed the order, 1 arrived due to logistical problems. So to solve this problem, you made multiple orders to dial those 10 cars up bit by bit. This caused a huge strain on the enterprises.

To meet this demand they had to work harder, order more raw materials and components for production. However, people are in lockdown, there are also difficulties with raw materials, as there are disruptions in logistics, and companies supplying raw materials are also partially in lockdown and also have problems with logistics at their level. Vicious circle.

As soon as the supply problem started to be solved, prices started to come down.

The latest release of the actual rate (0.0%) was lower than the forecast (0.2%).

The current market forecast is 0.1%.

You can read more here.

USD (US Dollar) / PPI m/m - 15:30

Producer Price Index change for the month.

TheUS Federal Bureau of Statistics releases the Producer Price Index every month, about 13 days after the end of the previous month. The index takes prices by major sectors of the economy as well as by stage of production.

This type of index takes into account energy and food prices, showing a more realistic picture of the current situation.

Why producer prices are so important is described above. We would like to discuss separately why the pure index is so important, without removing prices convenient for statistics.

When working with data, they are easy to manipulate. The reason for manipulation is most often an attempt to fit reality to one's model, and to say that the people in charge are good, they are doing everything right and everything will be fine.

As it was described above, energy is the main indicator influencing everything. So trying to reduce the weight of this indicator just doesn't show the reality.

Just compare a graph of Core PPI and PPI, how beautiful Core PPI is and how volatile PPI is. That's all the manipulation in action.

The latest release of the actual index (-0.1%) was below the forecast (0.1%).

The current market forecast is 0.1%

You can read more here.

USD (US Dollar) / Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment - 17:00

Prelim U.S. Consumer Sentiment.

TheUniversity of Michigan releases preliminary consumer sentiment data based on a survey of citizens answering questions about the current and future state of the economy. The main version will be released 2 weeks after the release of the preliminary data.

The indicator shows how consumers feel at the current moment, as well as what they expect in the future. If they feel negative, it indicates a possible decrease in consumption in the future, which worsens the economic situation. If they feel positive, it indicates a possible increase in consumption in the future, which improves the economic situation.

As part of the fight against inflation, this indicator in conjunction with consumer income, consumption can be a good indicator for the Fed's next actions.

Since August, the indicator has been on a downward trend. The actual indicator (78.8) turned out to be higher than forecasted (69.8), thus changing the downward trend.

The current market forecast is 79.9.

More details can be found here.








The situation on the DXY chart remains unchanged from last week. We expect the upward movement to continue with the target of 104.8. The key days will be Tuesday, Tuesday and Friday. At the same time, key CPI data will be released on Tuesday, which will be a catalyst for price movement. We believe that the CPI is underestimated (2.9) and is likely to come out slightly higher (3.1-3.3), which will be positive for the DXY. We can assume that we will see a Classic Buy Week this week.






Euro continues its downward trend towards the main target - 1.6150. Last week we saw a correction and attempts to pass the GAP zone at 1.0780, but these attempts were unsuccessful. Given the upward weakness, we expect a downward movement either from the current GAP zone or from the key institutional level of 1.0800, with the support of the downside OB. We consider 1.6560 as the target for the current week.






The current week will be special for the pound, as on Wednesday the CPI data will be released, which is expected to be 0.1 basis points higher than the previous value. Also during the week the head of the Bank of England - E. Bailey will speak, who will tell the main points concerning the current economic situation in the UK. This may serve as a good impetus for the price, and formalize the exit from the current 2-month consolidation. We expect manipulation to the resistance level (Res) or to the 0.5 level of consolidation with the subsequent downward movement to the main target - 1.2500.




Last week showed maximum quality workout of our plan to update ATH, where price updated it on Friday and currently closed above the ATH level.



In the current scenario, the best solution is to wait for a correction to the 4980 level on the overlap of the daily FVG (BISI). After reaching this zone, one should revisit the chart and SPI data to adjust one's plans.




The NQ100 index was able to consolidate above the ATH level, which makes it difficult to find optimal correction initiation zones as we have no levels to grab onto. On this basis, we should prefer working with Fibonacci projections. Currently, the NQ100 index is in a potential correction initiation zone (-2.5), with the price stopping at the 18000 level, which is a strong (round) institutional number.

We expect a correction to the 17800 zone (FVG BISI), from where we will make plan adjustments.







As we can see, the price has made a return to the 2024 highs and will soon update them, its goal is to update the annual high, to fill the monthly imbalance.



Manipulation comes on Sunday, which means the first half of the week is likely to be a pullback, get ready to pick up altcoins, we have some time to jump in.



Before heading to 52000, I want to see a pullback to 46000, then a pullback and a jump, everything is as obvious as possible here, except that the correction could be deeper and hit 45000.


Everything is similar here, we have two areas to catch bitcoin, if it goes down of course and not ignore the correction.



Here I was wrong and apparently we are flying to 57%, where after their test, we can wait for a terrible picture on altcoins, I think it is not worth explaining what will happen to them.




In the last post I said we are sad, but a breath of sadness - overshadowed by the pampa, let's move to the lower candles soon.



Once the week closes above 2400 it's just a red flag for the bull to rush right in to liquidate short traders, it's a reason to test 3000 and possibly 3290



On a daily basis I would look at adding long positions once price gets into the range between 2447-2400. Once we find strength there - I will proceed to fill volume.



Everything is similar here, no need for unnecessary words.




Things are not as great here as I wanted, so I will just keep an eye on the two formats. But be aware, a break update could negatively affect your spot deposits, so stay strong and buy back the bottom.

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