Cryptology.Key Blog Crypto News Weekly plan - 09.09 - 13.09.2024

Weekly plan - 09.09 - 13.09.2024

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Cryptology.Key

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Crypto News

08 September 2024

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Macro

US CPI - Wednesday
US PPI (Producer Price Index) - Thursday
ECB Interest Rate Decision - Thursday

Monday

🇯🇵 GDP - 02:50

🇪🇺 Sentix Investor Confidence - 11:30 🇺🇸 Wholesale Inventories/Trade Sales - 17:00 🇺🇸 NY Fed 1-Year Consumer Inflation Expectations - 18:00 🇺🇸 Atlanta FED GDPnow (q3) - 19:30

Let's break down the most important ones:

Monday will not be marked by high volatility in the markets. The main reason for this is the absence of important economic events or news that could affect investor sentiment. Therefore, you can be prepared for more stable and predictable market behavior during the day.

Tuesday

🇬🇧 Unemployment Rate - 09:00 🇩🇪 CPI - 09:00 🇨🇳 Trade Balance + Exports + Imports - 18:40 🇺🇸 3y T-Note Auction - 20:00 🇺🇸🛢 Weekly Crude Oil Stock - 23:30

Let's break down the most important ones:

🇬🇧 Unemployment Rate - 09:00

Previous figure (4.2%)

Forecast (4.1%)

The Unemployment Rate is an indicator that shows the percentage of people who are unemployed to the total labor force. This indicator plays an important role in assessing the state of the economy, as the unemployment rate directly affects the welfare of the population and the economic stability of the country.

To accurately calculate the unemployment rate, it is necessary to determine who exactly is in the labor force. The labor force includes all people who either have a job or are actively looking for one, i.e. the unemployed. Those who are neither working nor looking for work, such as students, retirees, or housewives, are not considered part of the labor force and are not included in the calculation of the unemployment rate.

A higher unemployment rate may indicate problems in the economy, such as low demand for labor or structural changes.

🇩🇪 CPI - 09:00

Previous MoM (0.3%) YoY (2.3%)

Forecast MoM (-0.1%) YoY (1.9%)

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is one of the key economic indicators widely used to gauge the inflation rate of a country. This index is calculated based on a careful measurement of changes in the prices of a wide range of goods and services that are included in the so-called "consumer basket". In the structure of the CPI, approximately 2/3 of the basket consists of services and 1/3 of goods. This distribution reflects current trends in developed economies, where the service sector plays an increasingly important role.

Core CPI, or core CPI, is a modified version of the standard CPI. The key difference of Core CPI is that two important components are excluded from its calculation: food and energy. Using Core CPI along with the standard CPI gives a more complete picture of inflationary processes. While the CPI reflects changes in the general price level, including short-term fluctuations, the Core CPI allows assessing underlying inflationary trends that are less susceptible to temporary factors.

Regular monitoring of these indicators allows the Central Bank to assess the effectiveness of monetary policy, forecast economic trends and make informed decisions in the field of economic regulation.

How does the price dynamics play out? A rise in values will be an incentive to tighten monetary policy and a corresponding strengthening of the currency, and vice versa.

🇺🇸 3y T-Note Auction - 8:00 p.m.

The yield on auctioned government bonds reflects the return an investor will receive by holding the bond to maturity. Governments issue these obligations to cover budget deficits and refinance debt. The average yield at auction is important for assessing the health of the economy and the level of confidence in the government.

Fluctuations in yields can indicate changes in the economy and investor expectations. If yields are rising compared to previous auctions, it may indicate a decline in confidence or expectations of rising interest rates and currency appreciation.

Wednesday

🇬🇧 GDP - 09:00 🇬🇧 Trade Balance - 09:00 🇬🇧 10y T-Gilt Auction - 12:00 🇩🇪 10y T-Bund Auction - 12:30 🇺🇸 MBA 30y Mortgage Rate + Mortgage Index - 14:00 🇺🇸 MBA Purchase Index - 14:00 🇺🇸 CPI - 15:30 🇺🇸 Core CPI - 15:30 🇺🇸🛢 Cushing + Crude Oil Inventories - 17:30 🇺🇸 10y T-Bond Auction - 20:00

Let's break down the most important ones:

🇬🇧 GDP - 09:00

Previous figure (0.7%)

Forecast (1.3%)

Gross Domestic Product is a key economic indicator that measures the annual change in the value of all goods and services produced domestically. It is important to note that GDP takes into account inflation, that is, changes in the price level of goods and services. This allows us to assess the real growth of the economy, not just the increase in value due to rising prices.

GDP is the broadest and most comprehensive indicator of economic activity, as it includes all sectors of the economy: industry, agriculture, services, construction and others. In this regard, GDP is used as the main indicator of the state of the economy. When GDP is rising, it indicates that the economy is growing, production is increasing, and people are getting richer on average. Conversely, a decline in GDP can indicate a slowdown in economic activity or even the beginning of a recession.

It is published monthly. There are three versions of GDP released one month apart - preliminary, second publication and final.

🇺🇸 CPI - 15:30

Previous MoM (0.2%) YoY (2.9%)

Forecast MoM (0.2%) YoY (2.6%) 🇺🇸 Core CPI - 15:30

Previous MoM (0.2%) YoY (3.2%)

Forecast MoM (0.2%) YoY (N/A)

How does the price dynamics play out? A rise in values will be an incentive to tighten monetary policy and a corresponding strengthening of the currency, and vice versa.

🇬🇧 10y T-Gilt Auction - 12:00 pm

🇩🇪 10y T-Bund Auction - 12:30.

🇺🇸 10y T-Bond Auction - 20:00

Thursday

🏦🇪🇺 Interest Rate Decision - 15:15 🇪🇺 Deposit Facility Rate + Marginal Lending Facility - 15:15 🇺🇸 PPI - 15:30

🇺🇸 Core PPI - 15:30 🇺🇸 Unemployment Claims - 15:30 🇺🇸 30y T-Bond Auction - 20:00 🇺🇸 Federal Budget Balance - 21:00 🇺🇸 FEDʼs Balance Sheet - 23:30 🇺🇸 Reserve Balances with FED - 23:30

Let's break down the most important ones:

🏦🇪🇺 Interest Rate Decision - 15:15

Previous Rate (4.25%)

Forecast (4.00%)

The Central Bank of the country plays a key role in setting interest rates, which have a direct impact on how much commercial banks charge for loans and how much they pay for deposits. Interest rates are part of the monetary policy of a country, which the central bank uses to control economic conditions, inflation and employment.

How it works:

When the central bank lowers interest rates, it makes credit cheaper for businesses and consumers, which stimulates economic growth. At the same time, lower interest rates can also reduce the privatization of saving money in the national currency, because deposits bring less income. If the central bank raises interest rates, it makes loans more expensive, which can stimulate economic activity, but at the same time makes the national currency more profitable for investors, who are looking for higher profits on deposits.

Importance for the currency market:

Interest rates are one of the main factors affecting the value of the national currency on international markets. Decisions on rates and anticipation of their changes can significantly affect the valuation of currency.

Increase in interest rates often leads to appreciation of currency. This happens because a higher rate makes assets in this currency more favorable for investors, reducing the interest on the currency. Lower interest rates, on the other hand, will weaken the currency as investors seek higher returns in other currencies.

🇺🇸 PPI - 15:30

Previous MoM (0.1% ); YoY (2.2%)

Forecast MoM (0.2% ); YoY (N/A) 🇺🇸 Core PPI - 3:30 pm

Previous MoM (0.0% ); YoY (2.4%)

Forecast MoM (0.2% ); YoY (N/A)

PPI (Producer Price Index) - Producer Price Index, reflects changes in the prices of goods and services from the point of view of their producers and sellers. This index covers a wide range of industries, including raw materials, materials and intermediate products. PPI has a lagged effect on measures of consumer inflation because changes in the prices of raw materials and intermediate goods are not immediately reflected in prices for final consumers. For example, an increase in metal prices may not immediately affect the price of a car at a car dealership, but over time this increased cost may be passed on to the consumer. It is important to note that PPI takes into account not only goods but also services, making it a comprehensive measure of price changes throughout the economy. This provides a more complete picture of economic processes and potential inflationary pressures.

How does the PPI score on price dynamics? A rise in values will be an incentive to tighten monetary policy and the corresponding strengthening of the currency.

🇺🇸 Unemployment Claims - 3:30 pm

Previous (227K)

Forecast (N/A)

Initial Jobless Claims (IJC), or Unemployment Claims, is a weekly report published by the U.S. Department of Labor (Labor Department). This report records the number of Initial Jobless Claims filed during the previous week. The IJC report gives an idea of how many people first applied for unemployment assistance, which can indicate possible changes in the labor market. For example, a surge in applications may indicate the beginning of economic difficulties, such as a decline in business activity or a wave of layoffs. Conversely, a decline in applications is often interpreted as a sign that the labor market is improving and employment is rising.

This indicator is also a leading indicator of the economic cycle, as it allows us to gauge the current state of the economy before more comprehensive data such as employment or GDP reports are released. However, it is worth noting that Initial Jobless Claims may be subject to significant revisions, as the data may be adjusted in subsequent reports based on more complete information.

In addition, this indicator is sometimes subject to manipulation, especially during periods of economic uncertainty. This may be due to temporary factors such as seasonal fluctuations or government programs that may distort data in the short term.

A lower reading could indicate a possible rise in inflation, which in turn would lead to tighter monetary policy and a stronger currency.

🇺🇸 30y T-Bond Auction - 8:00 p.m.

Friday

🇫🇷 CPI - 09:45 🇬🇧 Inflation Expectations - 11:30 🇪🇺 Industrial Production - 12:00 🇺🇸 Export/Import Price Index - 15:30 🇨🇦 Wholesale Sales - 15:30 🇺🇸 Michigan 1y+5y Inflation Expectations - 17:00 🌍 CFTC Report - 22:30

Let's break down the most important ones:

🇫🇷 CPI - 09:45

Previous MoM (0.2%) YoY (2.3%)

Forecast MoM (0.6) YoY (1.9%)

Core CPI, or core CPI, is a modified version of the standard CPI. The key difference between the Core CPI and the standard CPI is that it excludes two important components: food and energy. Using Core CPI along with the standard CPI gives a more complete picture of inflationary processes. While the CPI reflects changes in the general price level, including short-term fluctuations, the Core CPI allows assessing underlying inflationary trends that are less susceptible to temporary factors.

How does it play out on the price dynamics? Rising values will be an incentive to tighten monetary policy and the corresponding strengthening of the currency, and vice versa.

🗂️ CFTC Report - 22:30

The Commitment of Traders (COT) Report is an important weekly report that provides detailed information on the aggregate futures positions of various categories of market participants on U.S. exchanges. It is published every Friday at 22:30 GMT+3 by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). This report serves as a snapshot of the market, showing the distribution of positions between large institutional investors, commercial participants and retail traders. This analysis helps you as traders and analysts to understand market sentiment, identify possible trends and predict future price movements based on how different groups of market participants allocate their positions.

Crypto

BTC/USDT

Monthly

https://www.tradingview.com/x/lf2vmQQO/

Everything is going within the technical plan. Of course, this correction is not the most pleasant for our portfolio, but still, we should be ready for a break or price reaction in the current RB.

Weekly

https://www.tradingview.com/x/OhYAhsz7/

The other day price got a reaction from the level I talked about earlier. However, I did not go long - I am waiting to see how the week closes. This will be an extremely difficult period for bitcoin, because if the week closes below 53500, our next target is the break and 48-45k

Daily

https://www.tradingview.com/x/vCe0wkZ4/

If there is no reaction and the week closes as I said above, 55-58k is the optimal zones to look for short positions.

ETH/USDT

Monthly

https://www.tradingview.com/x/SUYJJH41/

Now 1900 is no joke, but it's all relative here.

On a monthly basis I would like to see the low refresh and go to the new September high.

Weekly

https://www.tradingview.com/x/px1QElVr/

Only 2 options here, a reaction from current and zakol 2800 or a low update and zakol 2800.

Daily

https://www.tradingview.com/x/UQBigfFn/

Identical for the daily period.

ETH/BTC

Weekly

https://www.tradingview.com/x/K1kYrRFP/

We need one more bright outlier and the market will be ready.

FX & Stock market

DXY

Daily

https://www.tradingview.com/x/gFS1Ii3Q/

Globally, we expected the DXY to hike towards the internal BSL at 103.5. This plan remains unchanged in the medium term, however, last week showed us that the DXY is trying to execute a manipulation to the downside for the Fed meeting on September 18.

Currently, DXY tested the nearest FVG SIBI and got a downward reaction, which continues the downward order flow. We dare to assume SSL withdrawal with a potential test of 100 level, before further reversal (possibly on the release of SPI data).

https://www.tradingview.com/x/vibZsnrJ/

We assume an upward movement to FVG SIBI with a further descent to the removal of SSL (Range Low), from where an upward reversal can be considered.

EURUSD

Weekly

https://www.tradingview.com/x/WikMNtyB/

EURUSD in terms of weekly timeframe came to the deviation of the global consolidation, with a test of 50% of the Volume Imbalance zone, from where it got a reaction and returned to the upper boundary of the global consolidation. At the moment it is quite difficult to assume further movement, but the ECB is to lower the rate on September 12, which may lead us to the EURUSD decline in the short term.

Daily

https://www.tradingview.com/x/kZ7NmDUk/

On the daily timeframe the price is squeezed between two FVG zones (SIBI/BISI). We should expect a breakdown (inversion) of one of the zones to build further narratives, but the main priority will be on the inversion of the FVG BISI zone.

GBPUSD

Weekly

https://www.tradingview.com/x/bTyzWs6D/

GBPUSD removed the key BSL level, forming a swing-high. We can assume a correction to the OB zone or even a downside move to the SSL.

Daily

https://www.tradingview.com/x/RszqRdON/

From the perspective of the daily timeframe a descending OB was formed, where on Friday on the background of the NFP release, was tested by the price at the 50% level, which led to a downward close on Friday. From this logic we can assume that a descending OF was formed, where the first target is +OB (Weekly) at 1.30.

https://www.tradingview.com/x/oDExcfwb/

On the 4-hour timeframe we see the removal of Internal BSL with the formation of OB, from where we can expect a downward movement. However, it should be taken into account that the current logic of GBPUSD diverges from the logic of DXY, we should be more careful.

SP500 / NQ100

Weekly

https://www.tradingview.com/x/hknNgxOX/

Last week's expectations did not come true, in particular, against the background of the release of relatively weak NFP, as well as the revision of its previous indicator, investors reacted with sell-offs. The indices were also affected by the fall and sell-offs of semiconductor companies, in particular, the Japanese had big sell-offs.

All this leads us to the fact that the indices become in global consolidation or a downward trend is formed, which is also confirmed by seasonality and increased risks of recession on the background of rate cuts, which makes investors get rid of risky assets, at least in the short term.

At the moment SP500 is in the first long zone of BPR, but there is a high probability of its breakdown and movement to Range Low. NQ100 index came to the Rejection zone, which may give a brief upward scenario, but the main narrative is downward.

Daily

https://www.tradingview.com/x/hknNgxOX/