Weekly plan - 25.11 - 29.11.2024

Macro

All in all, next week is going to be a very eventful week and interestingly enough, all the major events will be on Wednesday. All the other days will be pretty quiet.

Monday:

🟢 🇩🇪 Business Expectations, Current Assessment, Business Climate - 11:00 a.m. 🟢 🇺🇸 Chicago Fed National Activity - 3:30 p.m.

Monday won't stand out as anything special or interesting.

Tuesday:

🟢 🇩🇪 5y Bobl - 12:30 p.m.

🟢 🇺🇸 House Price Index - 4pm 🟠 🇺🇸 New Home Sales - 4pm 🟠 🇺🇸 Richmond Manufacturing/Services Index - 5pm:00 🔴 🇺🇸 CB Consumer Confidence - 17:00 🟢 🇺🇸 Dallas Fed Services Revenues - 17:30 🟠 🇺🇸 M2 Money Supply - 18:00

Let's break down the most important ones:

🇺🇸 CB Consumer Confidence - 17:00

Previous (108.7)

Forecast (112)

The Consumer Confidence Index, which is calculated by an organization called the Conference Board (CB), is an important tool for gauging consumer sentiment about economic conditions. This index shows how confident people are about the sustainability of the economy and their financial capabilities. A high level of consumer confidence usually indicates that people are willing to spend money on purchases, which in turn stimulates economic growth. Since consumer spending accounts for a significant portion of gross domestic product (GDP), consumer confidence is an important leading indicator to predict future economic trends.

When the index shows high values, it means that consumers perceive economic stability and are willing to actively participate in purchases, investments and other economic activities. This creates favorable conditions for businesses, which can count on increased demand for their goods and services. On the other hand, low consumer confidence can signal that people are worried about their financial future and tend to postpone large purchases or savings, which can slow economic growth. Thus, changes in the consumer confidence index can provide insight into consumer sentiment and expectations for the future, making it an important tool for economic analysis and decision-making by investors and policymakers.

Wednesday:

🟢 🇬🇧 GfK Consumer Confidence - 09:00 🟢 🇫🇷 Consumer Confidence - 09:45 🟢 🇪🇸 Retail Sales - 10:00 🟢 🇪🇺 ECB Non-monetary Policy Meeting - 10:00 🟠 🇺🇸 Durable Goods Orders m/m - 15:30 🔴 🇺🇸 Unemployment Claims - 15:30 🔴 🇺🇸 (Prelim) GDP Price Index q3 - 15:30 🔴 🇺🇸 (Prelim) GDP q3 - 15:30 🔴 🇺🇸 Dallas Fed PCE - 16:00 🔴 🇺🇸 Core PCE Price Index - 17:00 🔴 🇺🇸 PCE Price Index - 17:00 🔴 🇺🇸 Meeting Minutes (FOMC) - 21:00 🟠 🇺🇸 Atlanta FED GDPnow (q4) - 20:00 🟠 🇺🇸 7y T-Note - 20:00

Let's break down the most important ones: 🇫🇷 Consumer Confidence - 09:45

Previous Indicator (94)

Forecast (94)

The Consumer Confidence Index, which is calculated by an organization called the Conference Board (CB), is an important tool for gauging consumer sentiment about the economic situation. This index shows how confident people are about the sustainability of the economy and their financial capabilities. A high level of consumer confidence usually indicates that people are willing to spend money on purchases, which in turn stimulates economic growth. Since consumer spending accounts for a significant portion of gross domestic product (GDP), consumer confidence is an important leading indicator to predict future economic trends.

When the index shows high values, it means that consumers perceive economic stability and are willing to actively participate in purchases, investments and other economic activities. This creates favorable conditions for businesses, which can count on increased demand for their goods and services. On the other hand, low consumer confidence can signal that people are worried about their financial future and tend to postpone large purchases or savings, which can slow economic growth. Thus, changes in the consumer confidence index can provide insight into consumer sentiment and expectations for the future, making it an important tool for economic analysis and decision-making by investors and policymakers. 🇺🇸 Durable Goods Orders m/m - 3:30 p.m.

Previous MoM reading (-0.7%)

MoM Forecast (0.1%)

Durable Goods Orders is an important economic survey conducted each month by the U.S. Census Bureau. This survey collects data on orders for goods that are designed to last a long time, such as automobiles, appliances, industrial equipment, and other goods that serve for several years.

This survey covers various industries to provide an accurate picture of the current economic activity in the country. Investors and analysts closely follow the results of this survey as it is one of the key indicators of the state of the economy.

Durable goods orders can be used to draw conclusions about product demand, production levels, and industrial prospects. An increase in orders may indicate economic growth, while a decrease may indicate possible problems or a downturn. Thus, this data helps investors make informed decisions about investing in different sectors of the economy. 🇺🇸 Unemployment Claims - 3:30 p.m.

Previous figure (213K)

MoM Forecast (215K)

Initial Jobless Claims (IJC), or UnemploymentClaims, is a weekly report published by the U.S. Department of Labor (Department of Labor). This report records the number of Initial Jobless Claims filed during the previous week. The IJC report gives an idea of how many people first applied for unemployment assistance, which can indicate possible changes in the labor market. For example, a surge in applications may indicate the beginning of economic difficulties, such as a decline in business activity or a wave of layoffs. Conversely, a decline in applications is often interpreted as a sign that the labor market is improving and employment is rising.

This indicator is also a leading indicator of the economic cycle, as it allows us to gauge the current state of the economy before more comprehensive data such as employment or GDP reports are released. However, it is worth noting that Initial Jobless Claims may be subject to significant revisions, as the data may be adjusted in subsequent reports based on more complete information.

In addition, this indicator is sometimes subject to manipulation, especially during periods of economic uncertainty. This may be due to temporary factors such as seasonal fluctuations or government programs that may distort data in the short term.

A decline in the figures could indicate a possible rise in inflation, which in turn would lead to tighter monetary policy and a stronger currency. 🇺🇸 (Prelim) GDP Price Index q3 - 15:30

Previous figure (2.5%)

Forecast (1.8%)

TheGDP Price Index is a key economic indicator that measures the rate of inflation based on changes in the prices of goods and services produced in the United States. This index reflects how the prices of domestically created products change, and it is used to estimate the overall inflation rate in the economy. It is important to note that the index only covers goods and services that are produced in the United States and exported abroad. Prices of goods and services imported into the country are not included in this index. This means that the GDP price index provides an indication of how prices are changing within the country, but does not take into account external factors, such as the cost of imported goods, which can also affect the inflation rate in the economy. This indicator is widely used to analyze economic stability and understand price dynamics over the long term.

How does wagering on price dynamics play out? Like any other indicator of inflation dynamics. A rise in values will be an incentive to tighten monetary policy and a corresponding strengthening of the currency, and vice versa. 🇺🇸 (Prelim) GDP q3 - 3:30 pm

Previous MoM figure (3.0%)

MoM forecast (2.8%)

Gross Domestic Product is a key economic indicator that measures the annual change in the value of all goods and services produced domestically. It is important to note that GDP takes into account inflation, that is, changes in the price level of goods and services. This allows us to measure the real growth of the economy, not just the increase in value due to rising prices.

GDP is the broadest and most comprehensive measure of economic activity, as it includes all sectors of the economy: industry, agriculture, services, construction and others. Because of this, GDP is used as the primary indicator of the health of the economy. When GDP is rising, it indicates that the economy is growing, production is increasing, and people are getting richer on average. Conversely, a decline in GDP can indicate a slowdown in economic activity or even the beginning of a recession.

It is published on a monthly basis. There are three versions of GDP released at one-month intervals - preliminary, second publication and final. 🇺🇸 Core PCE Price Index - 17:00

Previous MoM (0.3% ); YoY (2.8%)

Forecast MoM (0.3%); YoY (2.2%) 🇺🇸 PCE Price Index - 17:00

Previous MoM (0.2% ); YoY (2.1%)

Forecast MoM (0.2% ); YoY (2.2%)

Another inflation metric that is the most important of all the others, because it is what the Fed looks at when setting the target rate.

PCE Price Indexpublished monthly in the Personal Income and Expenditure Report, is an important indicator that tracks changes in the prices of goods and services purchased by consumers in the United States. The index takes into account a wide range of goods and services, from food and clothing to health care and electronics, making it a key indicator of inflation. Importantly, in addition to monthly data, PCE price index information is also included in quarterly and annual GDP reports, providing a better understanding of overall trends in the economy and their impact on people's purchasing power. The PCE is one of the tools the Federal Reserve uses to assess inflation risks and make monetary policy decisions.

TheCore PCE Price Index excluding food and energy, also known as theCore PCE Price Index, is published as part of the monthly Personal Income and Expenditures report. The core index makes it easier to determine the underlying trend in inflation by excluding two categories-food and energy-whose prices tend to fluctuate more sharply and more frequently than other goods and services. The Federal Reserve closely monitors the PCE core price index when conducting monetary policy.

The effects on the currency can be mutual: a rise in the PCE can lead to higher interest rates and an appreciation of the national currency; on the other hand, during a recession, a rise in the PCE can lead to a deepening of the recession and thus a depreciation of the national currency. 🇺🇸 Meeting Minutes (FOMC) - 21:00

The FOMC Meeting Minutes is a detailed account of the committee's meeting that took place about three weeks ago where monetary policy was discussed and set. The document provides an in-depth analysis of the FOMC's stance on monetary strategy. Just get the bigger picture regarding the decision to cut rates more aggressively. 🇺🇸 Atlanta FED GDPnow (q4) - 8:00 p.m.

Previous figure (2.6%)

Forecast (2.6%)

GDPNow is not an official forecast from the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. It should be viewed as a current estimate of real GDP growth based on available economic data for the current measured quarter. GDPNow does not include subjective adjustments - the estimate is based solely on the mathematical results of the model. In particular, it does not take into account the effects of COVID-19 and social mobility beyond their impact on the raw GDP data and related economic reports that have already been published. GDPNow also does not predict their impact on future economic reports beyond the standard internal dynamics of the model. 🇺🇸 7y T-Note - 8:00 p.m.

The yield on auctioned government bonds reflects the return that an investor will receive by holding the bond to maturity. Governments issue these obligations to cover budget deficits and refinance debt. The average yield at auction is important for assessing the health of the economy and the level of confidence in the government.

Fluctuations in yields can indicate changes in the economy and investor expectations. If yields are rising from previous auctions, it may indicate a decline in confidence or expectations of rising interest rates and a strengthening currency.

Thursday:

Bank Holiday - 🇺🇸

🟢 🇪🇺 M3 Money Supply - 11:00 am

🟢 🇪🇺 Business and Consumer Survey - 12:00pm

🟢 🇪🇺 Business Climate, Consumer Confidence, Services+Industrial Sentiment - 12:00 pm

🟠 🇩🇪 (Final) CPI - 15:00

Let's break down the most important ones:

🇩🇪 (Final) CPI - 15:00

Previous MoM (0.4% ); YoY (2.4% )

Forecast MoM (-0.5%); YoY (2.6%)

TheConsumer Price Index (CPI) is one of the key economic indicators widely used to gauge a country's inflation rate. This index is calculated based on a careful measurement of changes in the prices of a wide range of goods and services that are included in the so-called "consumer basket". In the structure of the CPI, approximately 2/3 of the basket consists of services and 1/3 of goods. This distribution reflects current trends in developed economies, where the service sector plays an increasingly important role.

Core CPI, or core CPI, is a modified version of the standard CPI. The key difference of Core CPI is that two important components are excluded from its calculation: food and energy. Using Core CPI along with the standard CPI gives a more complete picture of inflationary processes. While the CPI reflects changes in the general price level, including short-term fluctuations, the Core CPI allows assessing underlying inflationary trends, which are less susceptible to temporary factors.

Regular monitoring of these indicators allows the Central Bank to assess the effectiveness of monetary policy, forecast economic trends and make informed decisions in the field of economic regulation.

How does the price dynamics play out? A rise in values will be an incentive to tighten monetary policy and the corresponding strengthening of the currency, and vice versa.

Friday:

🟠 🇩🇪 Import Price Index - 09:00 🟠 🇩🇪 Retail Sales - 09:00 🟠 🇫🇷 CPI, PPI - 09:45 🟠 🇩🇪 Unemployment Rate - 10:55 🟢 🇬🇧 M3 Money Supply - 11:30 🔴 🇪🇺 Final CPI - 12:00 🔴 🇪🇺 Final Core CPI - 12:00

Let's break down the most important ones:

🇩🇪 Retail Sales - 09:00

Previous MoM (1.2% ); YoY (3.8% )

Forecast MoM (-1.0%); YoY (1.0%)

Retail Sales tracks consumer demand for already finished goods. Retail Sales data is released monthly by the U.S. Census Bureau and indicates the direction of the economy. It acts as a key economic barometer and determines whether inflationary pressures exist. Retail sales are measured by durable and non-durable goods purchased over a period of time. Sales data for the report are drawn from 13 types of retail establishments, ranging from food service establishments to retail stores.

A stronger than expected reading should be positive for the currency, while a weaker than expected reading should be negative for the currency. 🇫🇷 CPI - 09:45

Previous MoM (0.3% ); YoY (1.2%)

Forecast MoM (-0.1% ); YoY (1.2%)

TheConsumer Price Index (CPI) is one of the key economic indicators widely used to gauge a country's inflation rate. This index is calculated based on a careful measurement of changes in the prices of a wide range of goods and services that are included in the so-called "consumer basket". In the structure of the CPI, approximately 2/3 of the basket consists of services and 1/3 of goods. This distribution reflects current trends in developed economies, where the service sector plays an increasingly important role.

Core CPI, or core CPI, is a modified version of the standard CPI. The key difference of Core CPI is that two important components are excluded from its calculation: food and energy. Using Core CPI along with the standard CPI gives a more complete picture of inflationary processes. While the CPI reflects changes in the general price level, including short-term fluctuations, the Core CPI allows assessing underlying inflationary trends, which are less susceptible to temporary factors.

Regular monitoring of these indicators allows the Central Bank to assess the effectiveness of monetary policy, forecast economic trends and make informed decisions in the field of economic regulation.

How does the price dynamics play out? A rise in values will be an incentive to tighten monetary policy and the corresponding strengthening of the currency, and vice versa.

🇫🇷 PPI - 09:45

Previous MoM (-0.1% ); YoY (-7.0%)

Forecast MoM (-0.1%); YoY (-6.8%)

PPI (Producer Price Index) - Producer Price Index reflects changes in the prices of goods and services from the point of view of their producers and sellers. This index covers a wide range of industries, including raw materials, materials and intermediate products. PPI has a lagged effect on measures of consumer inflation because changes in the prices of raw materials and intermediate goods are not immediately reflected in prices for final consumers. For example, an increase in metal prices may not immediately affect the price of a car at a car dealership, but over time this increased cost may be passed on to the consumer. It is important to note that PPI takes into account not only goods but also services, making it a comprehensive measure of price changes throughout the economy. This provides a more complete picture of economic processes and potential inflationary pressures.

How does the PPI score on price dynamics? The growth of values will be an incentive for tightening monetary policy and the corresponding strengthening of the currency. 🇩🇪 Unemployment Rate - 10:55 AM

Previous MoM figure (6.1%)

MoM Forecast (6.1%)

The UnemploymentRate is an indicator that shows the percentage of people who are unemployed to the total labor force. This indicator plays an important role in assessing the state of the economy, as the unemployment rate directly affects the welfare of the population and the economic stability of the country.

To accurately calculate the unemployment rate, it is necessary to determine who exactly is in the labor force. The labor force includes all people who either have a job or are actively looking for one, i.e. the unemployed. Those who are neither working nor looking for work, such as students, retirees, or housewives, are not considered part of the labor force and are not included in the calculation of the unemployment rate.

A higher unemployment rate may indicate problems in the economy, such as low demand for labor or structural changes. 🇪🇺 Final CPI - 12:00

Previous MoM (0.3% ); YoY (2.0%)

Forecast MoM (-0.3% ); YoY (2.3%) 🇪🇺 Final Core CPI - 12:00 PM

Previous YoY (2.7%)

Forecast YoY (3.0%)

Consumer Price Index (CPI) is one of the key economic indicators widely used to assess the level of inflation in the country. This index is calculated on the basis of careful measurement of changes in prices for a wide range of goods and services, which are included in the so-called "consumer basket". In the structure of the CPI, approximately 2/3 of the basket consists of services and 1/3 of goods. This distribution reflects current trends in developed economies, where the service sector plays an increasingly important role.

Core CPI, or core CPI, is a modified version of the standard CPI. The key difference between the Core CPI and the standard CPI is that it excludes two important components: food and energy. Using Core CPI along with the standard CPI gives a more complete picture of inflationary processes. While the CPI reflects changes in the general price level, including short-term fluctuations, the Core CPI allows assessing underlying inflationary trends, which are less susceptible to temporary factors.

Regular monitoring of these indicators allows the Central Bank to assess the effectiveness of monetary policy, forecast economic trends and make informed decisions in the field of economic regulation.

How does the price dynamics play out? The growth of values will be an incentive to tighten monetary policy and the corresponding strengthening of the currency, and vice versa.

Crypto

BTC

Monthly

https://www.tradingview.com/x/lDLXW7yp/

The price has hit 99860. The psychological number of 100k has not been touched yet. Ideally we need time to accumulate in place before we start firing the altcoin further. It's important to know that the strength that altcoins have shown is not the high.

ETH

Monthly

https://www.tradingview.com/x/2bXyim4H/

If you are not in swing positions or without spot trades - my condolences, it has been an extremely long time to take risk and reward. All I can advise you now is to wait until the end of the month and hope for a correction in early December. As soon as ether absorbs all the fall of the summer period - further growth to ATH will begin.

Weekly

https://www.tradingview.com/x/uYyW9agB/

Here the price will make an update of the minimum and enter the weekly imbalance or on the contrary will feed all late longists with a new portion of FOMO. Therefore, it remains to wait for the closing of the month and hope for a pullback to complete the positions.

Daily

https://www.tradingview.com/x/ysdD94SK/

There are two scenarios here, as I said above, we do not make a break below 3000 and go to 4000 or give another chance to late traders.

Dominance

Weekly

https://www.tradingview.com/x/mNH73WzM/

Here we start a gradual decline to 48%, but if it's too early, the start could come after a test of 64%, which I don't have much faith in, but I'm not putting it out of my mind. Once the crazy liquidity outflow from BTC starts - viola will explode like crazy.

USDT.D.

Weekly

https://www.tradingview.com/x/xenNxzwC/

Here I still believe in another move higher, as I would like more early long liquidations, namely a jump to 4.67 and only then a dump.

So the option of leaving the current lows is not really interesting to me, I also want to get more fresh swing positions before the party starts.

ETH.D

Weekly

https://www.tradingview.com/x/sf2QGcxr/

Ether dominance in a zone that has nucleated the Ether cycle twice. Whether this zone will be able to repeat the past - we can only wait.

FX & Stock market

DXY

Weeky

https://www.tradingview.com/x/HePLe54X/

Once again our DXY index plans are working out, the value came to the key level of 108. We assume that from this point the DXY index may start a correction, where the first target will be the removal of the PWL with a test of the FVG BISI, in case the reversal is confirmed and a low Core PCE Price Index m/m is released.

If the correction does not start - the trend will continue to the next key level - 109.5.

Daily

https://www.tradingview.com/x/2DLSDMeb/

PWH level should be watched carefully, if the index shows a reversal pattern when removed - we are expected to move to FVG BISI (105.8). If PWH level is broken - movement to 109.5.

EURUSD

Monthly

https://www.tradingview.com/x/ZPfHBCZV/

EURUSD reached the key monthly support level of 1.034, in conjunction with a test of the monthly FVG BISI, which could be a good area for a medium-term upward reversal.

Weekly

https://www.tradingview.com/x/3lp09Bs7/

In case the upward reversal is confirmed, we should watch the level of 1.048, consolidation above it will lead to the movement to the FVG SIBI zone. If the level of 1.048 keeps the price from rising, we may see a downward movement up to 1.010.

Daily

https://www.tradingview.com/x/RoIkqVyG/

We advise to be more careful with PWH / PWL levels.

GBPUSD

Weekly

https://www.tradingview.com/x/iCDfzEVd/

GBPUSD is at the key level of 1.25, which can form an upward price reversal if the reversal pattern is confirmed. The first target will be PWH + FVG SIBI.

Daily

https://www.tradingview.com/x/1UdXZHJP/

As well as with EURUSD we advise to work from PWL / PWH.

SP500 / NQ100

Daily

https://www.tradingview.com/x/aDjyWdLL/

As expected, last week was a correction, where we pointed out the test of Inversion FVG and potentially the continuation of the downward movement.

On SP500 we should watch for the formation of a reversal pattern in the inversion zone, in case of confirmation of the end of the correction - the target will be the level of 5724. In case the inversion does not hold the price - growth on ATH (6053).

On NQ100 we are watching FVG SIBI. In case of reversal - the target is 19810, in case of breakdown of this FVG SIBI - growth to ATH (21340).