Weekly plan - 24.06 - 28.06.2024

Macro

Next week sees the release of consumer confidence and expectations, final US GDP, pending home sales, and core personal consumption expenditures.

We advise to pay attention to events that cause uncertainty in price movement:

Friday - Core PCE Price Index m/m.

Tuesday

USD (US Dollar) / CB Consumer Confidence - 17:00

Consumer Confidence Index.

The Conference Board releases an index based on a survey of about 3,000 households that asks them to rate current and future economic conditions, including labor availability, business conditions and overall economic conditions.

The indicator looks at how consumers are feeling at the current moment, as well as what they expect in the future. If they feel negative, it indicates a possible decrease in consumption in the future, which worsens the economic situation. If they feel positive, it indicates a possible increase in consumption in the future, which improves the economic situation.

The latest actual reading (102.0) was higher than the forecast (96.0).

The current market forecast is 100.2.

More details can be found here.

Thursday

USD (US Dollar) / Final GDP q/q - 15:30

The Final GDP figure.

TheBureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) releases a measure based on the inflation-adjusted change in the value of all goods and services produced in the economy.

GDP is the most important indicator of economic development, so it is treated very carefully. A large number of economic and political decisions are made on the basis of this indicator.

For the last 4 quarters, the economy has been growing and the figures have been either higher or slightly lower than projected.

The last actual reading (3.4%) was higher than the forecast (3.2%).

The current market forecast is 1.4%.

You can read more here.

USD (US Dollar) / Unemployment Claims - 15:30

Unemployment Claims.

TheUS Department of Labor releases weekly claims data. The indicator is based on the citizens who applied for unemployment benefits for the first time in the last week.

The indicator is very important because it shows the strength/weakness of the labor market. If people are employed, they earn wages and consume services and goods. This can influence the rise in consumer inflation.

At the moment, the Fed is actively fighting inflation. A strong labor market indicates to the central bank that the economy is holding up and the current inflation situation will continue.

The more jobless claims, the better for the Fed's actions. The fewer jobless claims, the worse for the Fed's actions - they have to raise the rate even more.

The latest release of the figure (238k) was higher than forecast (235k).

The current market forecast is 240 thousand.

You can read more here.

USD (US Dollar) / Pending Home Sales m/m - 17:00

Change in the number of homes (secondary market) under contract for sale but still awaiting a closing transaction.

TheNational Association of Realtors publishes monthly data on the change in the number of secondary market homes for sale.

Real estate is the engine of the economy. The more bids find the final buyer, the more it affects the economy. The likelihood of starting renovations after buying a home is very high. Any repairs or changes are a waste of money on building materials, furniture, professionals and more. A loan is often taken out for renovations, which forces you to pay interest in the future and improve the bank.

You can read about the impact of real estate on the economy here.

The latest release of the index (-7.7%) was below the forecast (-1.1%).

The current market forecast is 2.3%.

You can read more here.

Friday

USD (US Dollar) / Core PCE Price Index m/m - 15:30

Important data with a serious impact on the volatility of the price movement!

Change in the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures Index.

TheBureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) releases the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures Index every month, about 30 days after the end of the previous month. The calculation takes the prices of consumer goods excluding energy and food (Core).

Energy and food prices are considered to be very volatile, so economists use the Core index for a more accurate measure.

Consumer spending prices account for most of the inflation as people are the main buyers of goods. This is a very important macroeconomic parameter and indicator, as it is the last in the chain of inflation and shows the real situation in the economy.

Inflation is dangerous because money is constantly depreciating. This causes very big economic and social problems, which, with uncontrolled growth, can even lead to civil conflicts and wars. This has already happened in history. That is why the government is watching this parameter very closely and doing everything possible to influence the price growth.

At the moment, the Fed is making every effort to curb the growth of inflation. The main tool is the increase in refinancing rates. The higher the rate, the higher the borrowing and lending. Expensive loans and borrowing - people can't buy new goods, houses, cars. Lack of great demand for goods - manufacturers make fewer orders, do not increase production capacity and thus do not increase prices at their level.

All of this should lower overall inflation and bring the system to a stable state. So far, the Fed has been doing well, but new problems keep popping up and the tools to influence the situation are unfortunately limited.

Inflation is measured by two main indicators - CPI (Consumer Price Index) and PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditure Index).

CPI is considered to be the mass indicator, but it has a big problem - it is very slow to show changes and does not take into account dynamics so well.

In order to get around these limitations, the PCE index - a more sensitive index - was used.

What is the basis for the difference in indices?

1. The share of certain goods in consumption.

When the prices of certain goods rise, consumers may switch to other goods. CPI uses a rigid basket calculation of these goods and the specific weight of these goods in the basket. PCE tries to take into account the change in demand, due to which it better accounts for changes in prices and consumption.

1. What kind of prices are taken as settlement prices.

While CPI looks at prices of goods consumed by consumers, PCE takes data on the prices at which goods are sold by the producer.

1. Price Coverage.

CPI takes into account only the prices of the products consumed. PCE takes into account the costs of insurance, health care, and so on (this is also an important component in people's lives).

1. Dynamics of variables calculation formulas.

Indexes use different formulas for calculation. CPI considers a certain set of goods, PCE tries to take into account the change in the demand of consumers (they replace expensive goods with cheaper ones).

The PCE index is very important, as the Fed mainly uses it for its calculations.

The latest actual rate (0.2%) was lower than the forecast (0.3%).

The current market forecast is 0.1%.

You can read more here.

USD (US Dollar) / Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment - 17:00

Revised (core) U.S. Consumer Sentiment.

TheUniversity of Michigan publishes Consumer Sentiment based on a survey of citizens answering questions about the current and future state of the economy. The main version is released 2 weeks after the release of preliminary data.

The indicator shows how consumers feel at the current moment, as well as what they expect in the future. If they feel negative, it indicates a possible decrease in consumption in the future, which worsens the economic situation. If they feel positive, it indicates a possible increase in consumption in the future, which improves the economic situation.

As part of the fight against inflation, this indicator in conjunction with consumer incomes, consumption can be a good indicator for subsequent actions of the Fed.

The indicator has been in an uptrend since November. The actual indicator (69.1) was below the forecast (67.8).

The current market forecast is 65.9.

You can read more here.

Crypto

BTC/USDT

Monthly

https://www.tradingview.com/x/bhGfAzGu/

The situation does not change in any way, we will still accumulate inside the last monthly candle.

Weekly

https://www.tradingview.com/x/Ti0m9PaH/

Similar to the monthly TF, we will accumulate until about 190 days have passed since March 11, which means we have a good chance that BTC will make a new high by the end of September, and all that is happening now is accumulation.

Daily

https://www.tradingview.com/x/2s0r0hK5/

If futures buying has a chance to liquidate, then buying BTC from current and until it gets to 58000 is a good entry point.

ETH/USDT

Monthly

https://www.tradingview.com/x/CE2nLIyS/

Similarly, everything is neutral here. We need to either hold the close above 3581 or stay sideways until September, if the month closes as it is now.

Weekly

https://www.tradingview.com/x/cV1FmseJ/

Of course, I want the price not to update the low again and to go higher as soon as possible. Expecting this I need an aggressive weekly close above 3581 or better - last week's high, which we are unlikely to get, so we live by the principle, from week to week.

Daily

https://www.tradingview.com/x/OIfXeL3j/

Since the last review, the scenarios do not change, so this stage is also relevant while there is no clarity on htf.

ETH/BTC

3D

https://www.tradingview.com/x/PhDtpVVM/

What's cool here is that the price is held in one place, which means that liquidity filling doesn't stop, but instead transitions.

FX & Stock market

DXY

Daily

https://www.tradingview.com/x/MXhxdiNy/

As expected since last week, DXY index after testing OB + BB formed the low of the week on Tuesday and continued to move in the upward OF, where it currently reached the upper boundary of the global consolidation (105.8)

We continue to work in the upward direction with targets to External BSL (106.5 / 107.4). The final GDP and Unemployment Claims are expected on Thursday and PCE on Friday, for this reason we expect a compression correction to the OB zone (105.5), with the formation of the low of the week on Thursday.

H4

https://www.tradingview.com/x/Nt3j9G0t/

On the other hand, it is worth considering the Consumer Confidence Index, which is released on Tuesday, which could form the low of the week in the OB zone, and continue to expand to the External BSL (106.5), where we will see a reversal on Thursday.

However, in both cases, it is considered to work with the upside OF and reaching External BSL (106.5 / 107.4).

EURUSD

Daily

https://www.tradingview.com/x/l5z0fhSa/

EURUSD continues to move according to last week's plan, where we Formed the high of the week on Tuesday and continued the downward OF. At the current moment we assume a return to OB + FVG and continuation of descending OF with the target of Internal SSL (1.0600).

H4

https://www.tradingview.com/x/4b4YD8qz/

From the perspective of 4-hour timeframe we see EURUSD discordance with the DXY chart (SMT DXY) to the upside, but this SMT is only a signal for correction. This correction may stop at the FVG SIBI zone (option 1) or, which cannot be ruled out, at the removal of last week's high PWH (option 2). The high of the week could be either Tuesday or Thursday. To determine the exact context we need to look at Tuesday's news reaction. In both cases a downward close of the week on the removal of the Internal SSL (1.0600) is considered.

GBPUSD

Daily

https://www.tradingview.com/x/RSMJbyB0/

Last week worked out quite well on the back of inflation and monetary policy data, where on Wednesday, the OB test, CPI release formed the high of the week and price continued to move down.

H4

https://www.tradingview.com/x/K2sJ16uy/

At the moment we are in the problem zone (level 1.2635 + FVG) from which we can get an upward correction. We assume correction to the FVG SIBI zone and continuation of downward OF on inversion of the current problem zone, with the main target - 1.2500.

SP500

Daily

https://www.tradingview.com/x/lj4bciBg/

Last week we showed the situation on the VIX volatility index where we talked about the coming correction in the US stock market, and as we can see on Thursday with the release of unemployment data we formed a full-fledged high, pulling back to the FVG zone.

At the moment we should consider how the price will work from the FVG data + 5520 level. The first option assumes inversion of this FVG and working in the downward direction. The second option - continuation of the upward trend from this FVG. We will know the outcome after the release of the consumer confidence index on Tuesday, where we will know which way to work.

NQ100

Daily

https://www.tradingview.com/x/Ar1uPUF7/

The Nasdaq 100 index reached a major mark of 20,000, with a test of the institutional level of 20,200 where it got a reversal on Thursday. Currently, the index value is in the potential I-FVG zone, but we should wait for a consolidation below to start in a downward OF. The first target will be the problematic FVG zone at 19500 level.

However, on the other side we may not see a consolidation below I-FVG, and the price will go back above 20,200 and continue the upward movement. In this case, the decision will be made after the release of the consumer confidence index on Tuesday.