Weekly plan - 18.11 - 22.11.2024

Macro

Monday

🟠🇪🇺 Trade Balance (Sep) - 12:00 pm

🟠🇺🇸 NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker (Oct) - 4:00 p.m.

🟢🇺🇸 3-6 Month Bill Auction - 6:30 p.m.

🟠🇺🇸 TIC Net Long-Term Transactions (Sep) - 23:00🟠 🇺🇸 TIC Net Long-Term Transactions (Sep) - 23:00

Let's take a look at the most important ones:

🇪🇺 Trade Balance (Sep) - 12:00 PM

Previous (4.6B)

Forecast (n/a)

Thetrade balance is an economic indicator that reflects the difference between the value of goods and services exported abroad and the value of goods and services imported into a country over a given period of time. If a country exports more goods and services than it imports, the balance of trade is considered positive, which means there is a trade surplus. In this case, a country's economy receives more income from foreign markets than it spends on buying foreign goods and services.

On the other hand, if a country imports more than it exports, then the trade balance becomes negative, indicating a trade deficit. This may indicate that a country's economy is more dependent on foreign goods and services than it produces and sells to foreign markets.

The trade balance is an important indicator of a country's economic health. A positive trade balance can strengthen the national currency and increase foreign exchange reserves, while a negative trade balance may signal problems with the competitiveness of the economy or a significant demand for imported goods. Economists and analysts closely monitor changes in the trade balance as they can have an impact on exchange rates, inflation and a country's overall economic outlook.

🟢 3-6 Month Bill Auction - 6:30 p.m.

3 Month

6 Month

The yield on auctioned government bonds reflects the return an investor will receive by holding the bond until it matures. Governments issue these obligations to cover budget deficits and refinance debt. The average yield at auction is important for assessing the health of the economy and the level of confidence in the government.

Fluctuations in yields can indicate changes in the economy and investor expectations. If yields are rising compared to previous auctions, it may indicate a decline in confidence or expectations of rising interest rates and a strengthening currency.

Tuesday

🔴🇪🇺 CPI (Oct) - 12:00 p.m.

🟠🇪🇺 Core CPI (Oct) - 12:00 pm

🟠🇺🇸 Building Permits (Oct) - 3:30 p.m.

🟠🇺🇸 Housing Starts (Oct) - 3:30 pm

🟠🇺🇸 Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q4) - 6:30 p.m.

🟠🇺🇸 API Weekly Crude Oil Stock -23:30 pm

Let's take a look at the most important ones:

🇪🇺 CPI (Oct) - 12:00 pm

Previous MoM (-0.1%); YoY (2.0%)

Forecast MoM (0.3%); YoY (2.0%)

MoM

YoY

TheConsumer Price Index (CPI) is one of the key economic indicators widely used to gauge a country's inflation rate. This index is calculated based on a careful measurement of changes in the prices of a wide range of goods and services that are included in the so-called "consumer basket". In the structure of the CPI, approximately 2/3 of the basket consists of services and 1/3 of goods. This distribution reflects current trends in developed economies, where the services sector plays an increasingly important role.

How does the price dynamics play out? Rising values will be an incentive to tighten monetary policy and a corresponding strengthening of the currency, and vice versa.

🇪🇺 Core CPI (Oct) - 12:00 pm

Previous MoM (0.2%); YoY (2.7%)

Forecast MoM (0.2%); YoY (2.7%)

YoY

TheCore CPI, or core CPI, is a modified version of the standard CPI. The key difference in the Core CPI is that two important components are excluded from its calculation: food and energy. Using Core CPI along with the standard CPI gives a more complete picture of inflationary processes. While the CPI reflects changes in the general price level, including short-term fluctuations, the Core CPI allows us to assess underlying inflationary trends that are less susceptible to temporary factors.

🇺🇸 Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q4) - 6:30 p.m.

Previous (2.5%)

Forecast (2.5%)

GDPNow is not an official forecast of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. It should be viewed as a current estimate of real GDP growth based on available economic data for the current measured quarter. GDPNow does not include subjective adjustments - the estimate is based solely on the mathematical results of the model. In particular, it does not take into account the effects of COVID-19 and social mobility beyond their impact on the raw GDP data and related economic reports that have already been published. GDPNow also does not predict their impact on future economic reports beyond the standard internal dynamics of the model.

Environment

🔴🇬🇧 CPI (Oct) - 09:00 AM

🟢🇬🇧 Core CPI (MoM) (Oct) - 9:00 am

🟠🇬🇧 PPI Input (MoM) (Oct) - 09:00

🟠🇪🇺 ECB Financial Stability Review - 12:00 pm

🔴🇺🇸 Crude Oil Inventories - 17:30

🟠🇺🇸 Cushing Crude Oil Inventories - 17:30

🟠🇬🇧 MPC Member Ramsden Speaks - 18:00🟠 🇬🇧 MPC Member Ramsden Speaks - 18:00

🟠🇺🇸 20-Year Bond Auction - 8:00 p.m.

Let's take a look at the most important ones:

🇬🇧 CPI (Oct) - 09:00

Previous MoM (0.0%); YoY (1.7%)

Forecast MoM (n/a); YoY (n/a)

YoY

🇬🇧 Core CPI (MoM) (Oct) - 9:00 AM

Previous MoM (0.1%); YoY (3.2%)

Forecast MoM (n/a); YoY (n/a)

MoM

YoY

MoM

🇬🇧 PPI Input (MoM) (Oct) - 09:00 PM

Previous MoM (-1.0%);

MoM Forecast (n/a)

PPI (Producer Price Index) - Pro ducer Price Index, reflects changes in the prices of goods and services from the point of view of their producers and sellers. This index covers a wide range of industries, including raw materials, materials and intermediate products. PPI has a lagged effect on measures of consumer inflation because changes in the prices of raw materials and intermediate goods are not immediately reflected in prices for final consumers. For example, an increase in metal prices may not immediately affect the price of a car at a car dealership, but over time this increased cost may be passed on to the consumer. It is important to note that PPI takes into account not only goods but also services, making it a comprehensive measure of price changes throughout the economy. This provides a more complete picture of economic processes and potential inflationary pressures.

How does the PPI score on price dynamics? Rising values will be an incentive to tighten monetary policy and the corresponding strengthening of the currency.

🇺🇸 20-Year Bond Auction - 8:00 p.m.

Thursday

🟠🇺🇸 Continuing Jobless Claims - 3:30 p.m.

🔴🇺🇸 Initial Jobless Claims - 3:30 p.m.

🔴🇺🇸 Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Nov) - 3:30 p.m.

🔴🇺🇸 Existing Home Sales (Oct) - 5:00 pm

🔴🇺🇸 US Leading Index (MoM) (Oct) - 5:00 pm

🟠🇺🇸 Fed's Balance Sheet - 11:30 p.m.

Let's take a look at the most important ones:

🇺🇸 Initial Jobless Claims - 3:30pm

Previous figure (217K)

Forecast (215K)

Initial Jobless Claims (IJC), or unemployment claims, is a weekly report published by the U.S. Department of Labor (Department of Labor). This report records the number of Initial Jobless Claims filed during the previous week. The IJC report gives an idea of how many people first applied for unemployment assistance, which can indicate possible changes in the labor market. For example, a surge in applications may indicate the beginning of economic difficulties, such as a decline in business activity or a wave of layoffs. Conversely, a decline in applications is often interpreted as a sign that the labor market is improving and employment is rising.

This indicator is also a leading indicator of the economic cycle, as it allows us to gauge the current state of the economy before more comprehensive data such as employment or GDP reports are released. However, it is worth noting that Initial Jobless Claims may be subject to significant revisions, as the data may be adjusted in subsequent reports based on more complete information.

In addition, this indicator is sometimes subject to manipulation, especially during periods of economic uncertainty. This may be due to temporary factors such as seasonal fluctuations or government programs that may distort data in the short term.

A decline in the reading could indicate a possible rise in inflation, which in turn would lead to tighter monetary policy and a stronger currency.

Friday

🟠🇬🇧 Retail Sales (MoM) (Oct) - 9:00 a.m.

🟠🇪🇺 HCOB Eurozone PMI (Nov) - 11:00 am

🟠🇬🇧 S&P Global/CIPS UK PMI (Nov) - 11:30 am

🔴🇺🇸 S&P Global PMI (Nov) - 4:45 pm

🟠🗂️ CFTC Report - 22:30

Let's take a look at the most important ones:

🇬🇧 Retail Sales (MoM) (Oct) - 9:00am

Previous MoM (0.3%)

MoM Forecast (-0.2%)

Retail Sales reflects the total value of sales at the retail level. It is one of the key indicators for assessing the overall health of a country's economy, as it reflects the consumer spending of households. The indicator covers a wide range of goods and services purchased by "ordinary" households and is therefore important for understanding the level of consumer activity.

High values of US Retail Sales may indicate a growth in consumption, which is a positive sign for the economy and may increase the value of the national currency. However, changes in this indicator can be volatile, particularly due to seasonal factors or external economic influences.

🇪🇺 HCOB Eurozone PMI (Nov) - 11:00 am

Previous Manufacturing (46.0); Services (51.6)

Forecast Manufacturing (46.0) ; Services (51.6)

Manufacturing

Services

PMI (Purchasing Managers Index) is a business activity index, which is one of the key indicators of a country's economic health. The PMI is calculated based on surveys of purchasing managers who assess the current conditions and outlook for their businesses. These surveys cover aspects such as output, new orders, inventories of goods, employment and shipments. A PMI above 50 indicates economic growth and expansion of business activity (currency appreciation). If the index is above 48 for an extended period of time, it may also indicate that the economy is still growing, albeit at a lower intensity. A reading below 48 indicates a contraction in business activity.

PMI Manufacturing - measures business activity in the manufacturing sector. It is derived from surveys of representatives of manufacturing companies that measure parameters such as output, new orders, employment and inventories. PMI Manufacturing is an important indicator of the health of the manufacturing industry, which plays a key role in the economy, especially in countries with developed industrial sectors.

PMI Services - reflects business activity in the services sector. It is based on surveys of companies operating in service industries such as transportation, communications, finance, health care and education. This index provides an indication of the status and outlook for the services sector, which accounts for a significant portion of GDP in most developed economies.

🇬🇧 S&P Global/CIPS UK PMI (Nov) - 11:30 a.m.

Previous Manufacturing (49.9); Services (52.0)

Forecast Manufacturing (50.1) ; Services (52.3)

Manufacturing

Services

🇺🇸 S&P Global PMI (Nov) - 4:45 pm

Previous Manufacturing (48.5) ; Services (55.0)

Forecast Manufacturing (n/a) ; Services (n/a)

Manufacturing

Services

The S&P Global reading from S&P Global has less influence and is considered not as accurate as the one from ISM.

🗂️ CFTC Report - 22:30

TheCommitment of Traders (COT) Report is an important weekly report that provides detailed information on the aggregate futures positions of various categories of market participants on U.S. exchanges. It is published every Friday at 22:30 GMT+3 by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). This report serves as a snapshot of the market, showing the distribution of positions between large institutional investors, commercial participants and retail traders. This analysis helps you as traders and analysts to understand market sentiment, identify possible trends and predict future price movements based on how different groups of market participants allocate their positions.

Crypto

BTC

Monthly

https://www.tradingview.com/x/YSxN8BdM/

The price has reached the 90k mark. The expected accumulation zone for the asset is 90-100k. All I am waiting for now, with liquidity actively flowing into bitcoin further, is for it to rise until we reach 100k, after that I will start to keep a close eye on the dominance, as most of the assets are still at the bottom.

Weekly

https://www.tradingview.com/x/5w92h2uE/

On the CME chart we have a gap that has not been removed. If we go up this weekend, there will be 2 gaps and the targets to work with will be much larger. I expect the end of this month or early December to be very tedious and unpleasant for the market - when most of the cryptocurrencies will start to correct, so if you have any long positions that have from the current 10-15% profit from entry points, think about partial fixing. Think back to last month of December and how it affected the market and be prepared, for now we are in for a complete repeat of last year 2023.

Daily

https://www.tradingview.com/x/rCy4WnSt/

Be prepared this month for a correction.

ETH

Monthly
https://www.tradingview.com/x/ni915ND0/

Objectively the ether is holding up pretty well. I'm still waiting for 2 scenarios on it and an opportunity to grab 4-5k. The plan you see on the chart hasn't changed in any way.

Daily
https://www.tradingview.com/x/GGeX3cmv/

We have almost completely covered the gap, which means we can start to exit from the current ones or price will make another sharp slide down before starting to rise towards 4000.

BTC.D

https://www.tradingview.com/x/NABIs3I2/

The salvation for altcoins is the lack of engulfment of the weekly candle to avoid forming an orderblock. If we can sell this candle and close it below 50% of the last candle it will be a salvation for us, however, if there is an orderblock, it's another attempt for a rise in dominance to 61-63%

USDT.D

https://www.tradingview.com/x/JGi2RaOM/

The dominance of usdt.d is falling rapidly to the downside, this is not a bad thing, however I am waiting for the weekly candle to close below 4.29% and then some sharp momentum to 4.49% so that this momentum has the character of the end of the month of November in it to get under the December transition which will see one of the most tedious weeks of the month. The ideal plan is to close below 4.29%, accumulate in place and grow a bit for half of the December month period, and then taper off. But be prepared that the dominant growth phase could be 4.67% on momentum, but that's unlikely.

FX & Stock market

DXY

Weekly

https://www.tradingview.com/x/rCz3mOs1

The DXY index continues its upward trend and has already moved beyond the global consolidation, but from a weekly timeframe perspective it still has room to move, at least to the 108 level, and potentially 110.

Daily

https://www.tradingview.com/x/0pNJJlpv

On the weekly timeframe, the FVG BISI was balanced on Friday, so we can assume a continuation of the uptrend to the 108 level from the beginning of the week. However, there is also a high probability of a small intra-week consolidation between 107 and 106.

EURUSD

Weekly

https://www.tradingview.com/x/bueIYOLx

EURUSD continues to actively move downwards, where it has already reached the lower boundary of the global consolidation. We assume a deviation approach with a test of the 1.2000 level, which is key for a potential stop of the current downtrend.

Daily

https://www.tradingview.com/x/nQjunkOK

From the point of view of the daily timeframe we consider 2 variants of movement:

1. In case the withdrawal of 1.0448 holds the price - transition to consolidation between 1.0448 and 1.0650
2. Continuation of impulse fall to 1.0200

GBPUSD

Weekly

https://www.tradingview.com/x/bil0wApo

Not in vain last week we advised to continue to work in the downward flow, despite the uncertain factors, GBPUSD also accelerated downward quite actively, and reached our target of 1.2613. Globally, we are likely to see a continuation of the move to the lower boundary of consolidation in the zone of 1.22-1.23.

Daily

https://www.tradingview.com/x/A0etrS9d

The situation is similar to EURUSD, we have 2 work plans:

1. Transition to intra-week consolidation in case 1.2613 holds the price, with correction to FVG SIBI
2. Impulse continuation of the downward flow to the zone 1.23-1.22

SP500 NQ100

Daily

https://www.tradingview.com/x/KPlWboTd

Both indices have formed an inversion (I-FVG), which means that we have entered the downward trend phase and the pre-election rally is over, the market is balancing.

SP500 index is at the key level of 5900, we can expect correction to I-FVG with continuation of downward flow to the target 5724, or without correction from 5900 to 5724.

On NQ100 index we expect a retest of 20685 level and movement to the target 19817.