Weekly plan - 16.12 - 20.12.2024

Cryptology.Key
ARTICLE BY
Cryptology.Key
15 MIN READ
Crypto News
15 December 2024
Content
[show]
[hide]

Macro

Next week sees the release of data on the state of the manufacturing and service sectors, consumer sales, the level of GDP and the change in personal consumption prices. The FOMC will hold a meeting on the level of the credit rate.

It is advised to pay attention to events that cause uncertainty in price movement:

Wednesday - Federal Funds Rate, FOMC Economic Projections, FOMC Press Conference.

Friday - Core PCE Price Index m/m.

Monday

EUR / French Flash Manufacturing PMI - 10:15 AM

Preliminary index of business activity in the French manufacturing sector.

S&P Global conducts a monthly survey among purchasing managers. Managers are asked to answer questions related to current inventories in the company's warehouses, the number of new requests for replenishment of warehouses, new orders and their prices, as well as employment in the company, production workload and current business conditions.

Flash is a preliminary index that is refined a week later in the Finale (final) version. More often than not, the Finale version does not make many adjustments, so the focus is always on the preliminary (earliest) index.

Production is one of the basic elements of any economy and is at the very beginning of the chain of creating goods that are then consumed by people. Since every manufacturer is a professional in their industry, they actively monitor market demand and understand the current market trend.

If a manufacturer sees a deteriorating market situation, it makes no sense for them to load production capacity, invest in new facilities and hiring, and purchase new raw materials. A large number of related very important elements of the economy suffer, such as the labor market, consumption, construction and many others.

France is Europe's second economy and a major exporter of goods. It is very important to keep an eye on producer sentiment as France is a major contributor to the EU's supply of goods.

The latest actual reading (43.1) was lower than the forecast (43.2).

The current market forecast is 43.2.

You can read more here.

EUR (Euro) / French Flash Services PMI - 10:15 PM

Preliminary French Flash Services PMI.

S&P Global conducts a monthly survey among purchasing managers. Managers are asked to answer questions related to new orders and their prices, employment, workload and current business conditions.

Flash - preliminary index, which is refined a week later in Finale (final) version. More often than not, the final version does not make any particular adjustments, so the focus is always on the preliminary (earliest) index.

The service sector is the most important element of the modern economy of any country, making a large contribution to GDP. A large number of population works in services and most of the consumer demand is accumulated in them. As the service sector is not so strongly tied to serious capital investments, it is less tied to credit rates for attracting new capital investments.

If a company sees the economy deteriorating, it makes no sense for it to make active plans for growth. The service sector is very much tied to the income of the population. If people will buy food and clothes in any case, they are likely to postpone going on vacation or subscribing to a new resource.

The last actual indicator (46.9) turned out to be higher than the forecasted one (45.7).

The current market forecast is 46.9.

You can read more here.

EUR (Euro) / German Flash Manufacturing PMI - 10:30 PM

Preliminary index of business activity in the manufacturing sector in Germany.

S&P Global conducts a monthly survey among purchasing managers. Managers are asked to answer questions related to current inventories in the company's warehouses, the number of new requests for replenishment of warehouses, new orders and their prices, as well as employment in the company, the workload of production and the current business conditions.

Flash is a preliminary index that is refined a week later in the Finale (final) version. More often than not, the Finale version does not make many adjustments, so the focus is always on the preliminary (earliest) index.

Germany is Europe's first economy and the third largest exporter of goods in the world. The country is a major center of engineering and chemical industries. Unlike France, which is the second country with the most nuclear power plants, Germany has turned toward green energy and is very hooked on natural gas. After the outbreak of war in Ukraine, Germany drastically cut gas supplies from Russia, which hit the manufacturing sector very hard.

The latest actual figure (43) was lower than forecast (43.2).

The current market forecast is 43.1.

You can read more here.

EUR (Euro) / German Flash Services PMI - 10:30 AM

Preliminary index of business activity in the German services sector.

S&P Global conducts a monthly survey among purchasing managers. Managers are asked to answer questions related to new orders and their prices, employment, workload and current business conditions.

Flash - preliminary index, which is refined a week later in Finale (final) version. More often than not, the Finale version does not make many adjustments, so the focus is always on the preliminary (earliest) index.

The latest actual index (49.3) was lower than the forecast (49.4).

The current market forecast is 49.5.

More details can be found here.

USD (US Dollar) / Flash Manufacturing PMI - 16:45

The preliminary index of business activity in the U.S. manufacturing sector.

S&P Global conducts a monthly survey among purchasing managers. Managers are asked to answer questions related to current inventories in the company's warehouses, the number of new requests for replenishment of warehouses, new orders and their prices, as well as employment in the company, the workload of production and current business conditions.

Flash is a preliminary index that is refined a week later in the Finale (final) version. More often than not, the Finale version does not make much correction, so the focus is always on the preliminary (earliest) index.

There is a big misconception that the US can only consume and they don't create anything else. This is actually not true, the US is the second exporter of goods in the world. The country's geographical location forced it to develop its own production to meet its needs. Along with this, the US has a large amount of minerals on its territory, which additionally helps in the development of industry.

The USA is indeed the world's largest consumer, so much of the world economy depends on the conditions in the US market. The industry is very active in the local market, so it is a good indicator of future consumption.

The latest actual reading (48.4) was higher than the forecast (47.7).

The current market forecast is 49.4.

You can read more here.

USD (US Dollar) / Services PMI - 16:45

Preliminary US Services PMI.

S&P Global conducts a monthly survey among purchasing managers. Managers are asked to answer questions related to new orders and their prices, employment, workload and current business conditions.

Flash - preliminary index, which is refined a week later in Finale (final) version. More often than not, the Finale version does not make many adjustments, so the focus is always on the preliminary (earliest) index.

The service sector takes a huge share of the US GDP, which is the reason why we still don't see labor market contractions. Services are not as dependent on capital investment as the manufacturing sector, which suffers from a high refinancing rate.

The latest actual rate (56.1) was higher than forecast (57).

The current market forecast is 55.7.

More details can be found here.

Tuesday

USD (US Dollar) / Core Retail Sales m/m - 3:30 pm

Core Retail Sales change for the month.

TheU.S. Census Bureau releases monthly data on the change in Core Retail Sales for the month.

To calculate the Core, the data excluding auto sales is taken. Statistically, automobile sales account for about 20% of retail sales. Car prices are constantly changing due to strong demand and therefore create a lot of volatility.

As described in past reviews, economists try to fit any situation to a model. Volatility can create problems for these models, so they remove the volatile component from the calculation.

The retail sales baseline is very important because it is the first in the chain to determine consumer demand.

The more people buy goods, the less they become available in store warehouses. In order to supply the demand, stores start to order more and more goods from enterprises. Enterprises begin to actively purchase raw materials to produce these goods.

If people buy less goods, the stocks in the stores' warehouses remain and there is no point in making a new order to the enterprise. The chain that creates a positive impact on the economy does not work.

The retail sales indicator is used to calculate a large number of statistics, on the basis of which further decisions on the work of enterprises and government agencies are made.

At the moment, the Fed's main task is to reduce inflation as carefully as possible. That's why the declining retail sales figure is a short-term positive, saying that the impact is working and they will reach the 2% inflation target in the long run.

The last release of the actual figure (0.1%) was below the forecast (0.3%).

The current market forecast is 0.4%.

More details can be found here.

USD (US Dollar) / Retail Sales m/m - 15:30

Retail Sales Change for the month.

TheU.S. Census Bureau releases monthly data on the monthly change in Retail Sales.

To calculate the index, the data is taken into account the sales of automobiles. Statistically, automobile sales account for about 20% of retail sales. Car prices are constantly changing due to strong demand and therefore create a lot of volatility.

As described in past reviews, cars are a very important part of American life because the infrastructure is very spread out geographically and the transportation system is not as developed as in Europe.

Underreporting real statistics is not a good thing, but when compared to inflation and core inflation (CPI and Core CPI / PCE and Core PCE), car sales are not as important as rising food and energy prices.

You can not change a car for a long time and still own it. However, the car market in the US runs on credit. Mostly people do not fully own cars, but take it on lease or loan. After a certain period of use, they do not pay off the full loan for the current car change it and reallocate the loan to a new car. For this reason, the global aftermarket is filled with cars from the USA.

The impact on car sales is a decrease in the activity of dealers, manufacturers and banking institutions issuing car loans. The auto industry generates 3% of US GDP and creates actual and indirect jobs for 10 million people.

The latest release of the actual figure (0.4%) was higher than the forecast (0.3%).

The current market forecast is 0.6%.

You can read more here.

Wednesday

USD (US Dollar) / Federal Funds Rate - 21:00

Important data that has a serious impact on the volatility of the price movement!

US Prime Refinancing Rate (Fed Funds Rate).

TheFed is voting on future actions with the refinancing rate.

The refinancing rate is the most important parameter affecting liquidity in the financial system. Depending on the size of the lending rate, the lending rates for companies and consumers depend.

Banks can borrow funds from the central bank at the current lending rate. In order to make money, they charge their interest and issue loans to companies and consumers. The higher the rate, the more interest the companies and consumers have to pay on the loan.

The refinancing rate is the most important tool to fight inflation. Without exotic influences (logistical collapse under Covid-19 and supply chain disruptions), inflation rises from increasing consumer demand. Companies start producing more and more to meet demand, while prices also rise. As companies start ordering more and more raw materials to produce, raw material prices also increase. A spiral of constantly rising prices is created.

Similar to a fire, you have to reduce the oxygen supply and the fire will start to shrink. The more expensive it becomes to get money, the less people start buying goods, the less businesses produce and the less the cost of raw materials increases.

The current market forecast is 4.5%.

You can read more here.

USD (US Dollar) / FOMC Economic Projections - 21:00

Important data with a serious impact on price movement volatility!

FOMC Economic Projections.

The Fed publishes its macroeconomic forecasts once a quarter. This is very important information, as it gives an idea about the current assessment of the situation and future actions of the Fed.

USD (US Dollar) / FOMC Statement - 21:00

Important data that has a serious impact on the volatility of the price movement!

Fed's Monetary Policy Statement.

The FOMC Statement describes the current state of the economy, the Fed's economic and monetary policy outlook.

USD (US Dollar) / FOMC Press Conference - 21:30

Important data having a serious impact on the volatility of price movement!

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell press conference.

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will answer questions from economists and journalists during the press conference after the announcement of the monetary policy decision.

A very important event, as in his speech the head of the central bank may mention information about future actions to change the refinancing rate.

An example of such a speech.

Thursday

USD (US Dollar) / Final GDP q/q - 15:30

The Final GDP figure.

TheBureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) publishes a measure based on the change in the value of all goods and services produced in the economy, adjusted for inflation.

GDP is the most important indicator of economic development, so it is treated very carefully. A large number of economic and political decisions are made on the basis of this indicator.

For the last 4 quarters, the economy has been growing, with indicators either higher or slightly lower than projected.

The last actual rate (3.0%) was equal to the projected rate (3.0%).

The current market forecast is 2.8%.

You can read more here.

USD (US Dollar) / Unemployment Claims - 15:30

Unemployment Claims.

The US Department of Labor releases weekly claims data. The indicator is based on the citizens who applied for unemployment benefits for the first time in the last week.

The indicator is very important because it shows the strength/weakness of the labor market. If people are employed, they earn wages and consume services and goods. This can influence the rise in consumer inflation.

At the moment, the Fed is actively fighting inflation. A strong labor market indicates to the central bank that the economy is holding up and the current inflation situation will continue.

The more jobless claims, the better for the Fed's actions. The fewer jobless claims, the worse for the Fed's actions - they have to raise the rate even more.

The latest release of the figure (242K) was higher than forecast (221K).

The current market forecast is 245 thousand.

You can read more here.

Friday

USD (US Dollar) / Core PCE Price Index m/m - 15:30

Important data with a serious impact on the volatility of the price movement!

Change in the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures Index.

TheBureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) releases the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures Index (PCE) every month, about 30 days after the end of the previous month. The calculation takes the prices of consumer goods excluding energy and food (Core).

Energy and food prices are considered to be very volatile, so economists use the Core index for a more accurate measure.

Consumer spending prices account for most of the inflation as people are the main buyers of goods. This is a very important macroeconomic parameter and indicator, as it is the last in the chain of inflation and shows the real situation in the economy.

Inflation is dangerous because money is constantly depreciating. This causes very big economic and social problems, which, with uncontrolled growth, can even lead to civil conflicts and wars. This has already happened in history. That is why the government is watching this parameter very closely and doing everything possible to influence the price growth.

At the moment, the Fed is making every effort to curb the growth of inflation. The main tool is the increase in refinancing rates. The higher the rate, the higher the borrowing and lending. Expensive loans and borrowing - people can't buy new goods, houses, cars. Lack of great demand for goods - manufacturers make fewer orders, do not increase production capacity and thus do not increase prices at their level.

All of this should lower overall inflation and bring the system to a stable state. So far, the Fed has been doing well, but new problems keep popping up and the tools to influence the situation are unfortunately limited.

Inflation is measured by two main indicators - CPI (Consumer Price Index) and PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditure Index).

CPI is considered to be the mass indicator, but it has a big problem - it is very slow to show changes and does not take into account dynamics so well.

In order to get around these limitations, the PCE index - a more sensitive index - was used.

What is the basis for the difference in indices?

  1. The share of certain goods in consumption.

When the prices of certain goods rise, consumers may switch to other goods. CPI uses a rigid basket calculation of these goods and the specific weight of these goods in the basket. PCE tries to take into account the change in demand, due to which it better accounts for changes in prices and consumption.

  1. What kind of prices are taken as settlement prices.

While the CPI examines prices for goods consumed by consumers, the PCE takes data on the prices at which goods are sold by the producer.

  1. Price Coverage.

CPI only takes into account the prices of products consumed. PCE takes into account the costs of insurance, health care, and so on (this is also an important component in people's lives).

  1. Dynamics of variables calculation formulas.

Indexes use different formulas for calculation. CPI considers a certain set of goods, PCE tries to take into account the change in the demand of consumers (they replace expensive goods with cheaper ones).

The PCE index is very important because the Fed mainly uses it for its calculations.

The latest actual rate (0.3%) was lower than the forecast (0.3%).

The current market forecast is 0.2%.

You can read more here.

 

Crypto

 

BTC

Monthly

https://www.tradingview.com/x/BbRPXzkB/

No comments here, except how we could be in for a very scary price drop within a few weeks which could dramatically wipe out altcoins once again at -40%. So we either get growth for the rest of the year across all coins or there will be a sharp 90k plum.

ETH

Monthly

https://www.tradingview.com/x/BPYwM1Al/

Here we do not have a clear picture, but we have formed equals, the price will either break through and close the annual, quarterly, monthly bar above 4000 - it looks logical and very bullish or vice versa at the close of the month or in a few days, the price will go to remove the formed imbalance on the monthly chart.

Weekly
https://www.tradingview.com/x/TK8DerdS/

I don't like the current week, unless of course it is bought out overnight in favor of the bulls. Here I will just watch the close of the week.

Daily

https://www.tradingview.com/x/t9vwRio7/

Here we have daily accumulation lows, it would be nice^ if price can take them down and get a reaction in the daily block, from there we can try to long under 4093.

4H

https://www.tradingview.com/x/t3UGNDAU/

Here I will try to trade 2 scenarios, exit on structure formation and then look for a pullback or plum to the zone and from there clip without confirmation.

USDT.D

Weekly

https://www.tradingview.com/x/Lxut0b3F/

The spill^ I waited for produced a not so great inflow of dominance, at 4.29 we stopped out. I said in previous views that I was expecting 2 stages, only the local one worked, it's probably more of a plus than a minus if we can sell the weekly candle and head for a down trend continuation in the week. However, I don't really see any targets yet that can be reached before the end of the month. Therefore, I remain neutral here.

ETHBTC

https://www.tradingview.com/x/CgATWhd2/

No change.

 

FX & Stock market

DXY

Daily

https://www.tradingview.com/x/G7sdzjAI

This week we are expecting a number of important indicators as well as the FOMC meeting, which creates some uncertainty in the future movement. For this reason, it does not make sense to make plans before the FOMC. It is advised to wait for the release of data and press conference, and then form further narratives. For now, we can only assume that the DXY may react with a downward movement back to the lower boundary of the current consolidation - 105.5.

EURUSD

Daily

https://www.tradingview.com/x/PAc13TtP

Before FOMC we have uncertainty of further movement, so we are not forming plans, we are waiting for FOMC exit, current forecasts suggest an upward exit from the level of 1.0425.

GBPUSD

Daily

https://www.tradingview.com/x/aSC9t2YF

The situation is identical with EURUSD, presumably this week there will be an upward movement to 1.28, but a more accurate narrative should be considered after the FOMC

SP500

Daily

https://www.tradingview.com/x/HP65txt8

The narrative for the stock indices is still unknown, but the chart may suggest a decline to the Gap zone in the 6000 range.

NQ100

Daily

https://www.tradingview.com/x/SEDtz0tz

The chart suggests consolidation and a decline to 21350, but we will only be able to confirm this narrative after the FOMC release.

SUBSCRIPTION TO NEWS
Join our mailing list. No spam.
Only exclusive offers.