Cryptology.Key Blog Crypto News Weekly plan - 09.12 - 13.12.2024

Weekly plan - 09.12 - 13.12.2024

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Cryptology.Key

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Crypto News

08 December 2024

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Macro

The week will be quite volatile with key data expected on Wednesday and Thursday.

Monday-Tuesday:

No important publications are expected, but do not forget that Monday is the opening of the trading week, which may be accompanied by volatility and preparation for quite a busy week. Also, do not forget about what is happening in the world: the situation in Syria, Trump's aggressive statements - all this can affect the opening of the trading week, so do not forget about risk control.

Wednesday:

15:30 U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) YoY.
Tuesday will definitely be accompanied by an increase in volatility as we are expecting the publication of the Consumer Price Index. The pre-holiday index is quite interesting, especially considering the arrival of the incoming new president, who has already shared many bright remarks regarding the current state of affairs, the head of the Fed and changes in the monetary policy of the country. Nevertheless, J. Powell is still standing on his own. The CPI data may affect the future decision on the key refinancing rate, the decision on which is expected on December 18. At the moment, the probability of the next cut is estimated at 90%.

Do not forget that volatility increases not only during the publication of such data, but also before - take this into account when working.

Thursday:

Thursday is expected to be volatile for the Eurozone and the dollar. Key focus on Eurozone and PPI publications.

15:15 Deposit Facility Rate

The interest rate at which commercial banks place excess reserves on deposit with the European Central Bank (ECB) overnight. This rate directly affects the cost of short-term borrowing between banks and serves as an indicator of the ECB's policy to fight inflation or stimulate the economy.

15:15 ECB Interest Rate Decision

This is the main interest rate determined by the European Central Bank for refinancing operations. It affects the cost of credit for banks and end borrowers. Very High (three stars). This is the key decision that determines the monetary policy of the euro area.

These two decisions show the direction of ECB policy - Eurozone trading pairs will be subject to high volatility both before the news is released and in time and after, because in 15 minutes the US Producer Price Index will be released - be careful.

15:30 PPI

PPI (Producer Price Index) is a producer price index that measures the change in the prices at which manufacturers sell their goods and services. It is considered one of the key indicators of inflation, along with CPI (Consumer Price Index).

Measurement: PPI data is released monthly and is expressed as a percentage change from the previous month(m/m) or the same month of the previous year(y/y).
PPI Categories:
- General (Headline) PPI: Includes all categories of goods and services.
- Core PPI: Excludes food and energy due to their high volatility.
Inflation Indicator:
- If PPI is rising, it may indicate inflationary pressures as producers often pass on cost increases to consumers.
- A high PPI can lead to a rising CPI, which affects central banks' interest rate decisions.
Fed reaction:
- Rising inflation can prompt the Federal Reserve (Fed) to raise interest rates to combat inflation. This usually leads to a stronger U.S. dollar and a decline in the value of stocks and bonds.
Leading indicator:
- PPI often outpaces changes in CPI because changes in manufacturing prices can be reflected in consumer prices with a lag.

15:30 Unemployment Claims.

A weekly report published by the U.S. Department of Labor. This report records the number of Initial Jobless Claims filed during the previous week. The IJC report gives you an idea of how many people have applied for unemployment assistance for the first time, which can indicate possible changes in the labor market. For example, a surge in applications may indicate the beginning of economic difficulties, such as a decline in business activity or a wave of layoffs. Conversely, a decline in applications is often interpreted as a sign that the labor market is improving and employment is rising.

This indicator is also a leading indicator of the economic cycle, as it allows us to gauge the current state of the economy before more comprehensive data such as employment or GDP reports are released. However, it is worth noting that Initial Jobless Claims may be subject to significant revisions, as the data may be adjusted in subsequent reports based on more comprehensive information.

In addition, this indicator is sometimes subject to manipulation, especially during periods of economic uncertainty. This may be due to temporary factors, such as seasonal fluctuations or government programs, which may distort the data in the short term.

A lower reading could indicate a possible rise in inflation, which in turn would lead to tighter monetary policy and a stronger currency.

15:45 ECB Press Conference

The European Central Bank (ECB) press conference is held after an interest rate announcement and is often accompanied by comments on the state of the economy and future monetary policy. Any announcements of policy tightening or easing can cause the Euro to fluctuate sharply - a volatile period.

Friday:

9:00 GDP MoM.

Gross Domestic Product (GDP, MoM) measures the change in the value of all goods and services produced in the economy in a month. This GDP report is an important signal to assess the current economic condition of the UK and possible steps from the Bank of England.

FX & Stock market

DXY

Daily

https://www.tradingview.com/x/WOsJCdTD/

Last week we mentioned the DXY correction, but after the release of unemployment data on Friday, and expectations for the CPI this Wednesday, we tend to expect the DXY to return to the upside. In addition, we will see a EUR rate cut on Thursday, expected by 25 bps, which will also make the USD stronger against the EUR. The main target for the week is 107, potential upside target is 109.5.

EURUSD

Daily

https://www.tradingview.com/x/SfJNDlb6/

Based on the released and expected fundamental data, as well as the current chart, we can assume EURUSD downward movement. At the moment we see BSL removal inside the weekly FVG SIBI zone, which may lead to the removal of 1.0425 as the first FTA zone, and a move towards PWL. The broader target is the 1.0200 level.

GBPUSD

Daily

https://www.tradingview.com/x/ZnoOrvpE/

GBPUSD fulfilled last week's plan by reaching the FVG SIBI zone. At the moment the situation is complicated, we got a reaction from the FVG SIBI, and the week has consolidated below, which may indicate a downward movement, which is confirmed by the fundamentals, but the upward OF is not broken. We may see SSL removal this week, and overall we expect consolidation between the two zones of FVG SIBI and FVG BISI.

SP500

Daily

https://www.tradingview.com/x/0pEIRx19/

While the stock markets are in an upward rally phase, it is dangerous to consider a downward movement. At the moment the SP500 index has tested the FVG BISI zone from which it can go higher. On the other hand, the current CPI forecasts on Wednesday may turn the indices to correction, especially on the chart we see the standard deviation projections (-4 and -2.5). We advise to continue longing, keeping a close eye on Wednesday's CPI data.

NQ100

Daily

https://www.tradingview.com/x/KusoHa1U/

As expected according to last week's plan - NQ100 has reached ATH, and is currently at its highest point. The situation is similar to sp500 - we continue to work on OF in an uptrend while keeping an eye on Wednesday's SPI. Potential target is 21800-22000.

Crypto

BTC

Monthly

https://www.tradingview.com/x/ju5hhkCM/

The price has reached 104000, which means it's time for a correction.

Weekly

https://www.tradingview.com/x/gBi5hVQ8/

I am considering weekly equals as an argument for price to drop to open the week, the ideal plan is to plummet to 90, 89 and then consolidate and alts surge.

ETH

Weekly

https://www.tradingview.com/x/Vmxvx689/

How strong or weak the pullback will be is unknown for ether, however my focus is betting on a test of 3675 and then a sharp pullback to ATH. The plan for 2024 is to make a high in ether and start the correction serious in January.

Daily

https://www.tradingview.com/x/HnAtkY6W/