Weekly plan - 02.12 - 06.12.2024

Macro

The coming week is expected to be volatile. Every day important indicators will be released. We recommend you to pay attention to Monday and Tuesday, when business activity indicators will be released in the US, Europe and Britain. They will give us an insight into the vector of the economies' movements, which will allow us to form expectations for the next macro indicators.

Monday

🟠🇬🇧 Nationwide HPI (Nov) - 09:00 AM

🟠🇪🇺 HCOB Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (Nov) - 11:00 am

🟠🇬🇧 S&P Global/CIPS UK Manufacturing PMI (Nov) - 11:30 am

🟠🇪🇺 Unemployment Rate (Oct) - 12:00 pm

🔴🇺🇸 S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI (Nov) - 16:45

🟠 🇺🇸 Construction Spending (MoM) (Oct) - 5:00 pm

🔴 🇺🇸 ISM Manufacturing PMI (Nov) - 5:00 pm

🟠🗂️ CFTC Report - 22:30

Let's take a look at the most important ones:

🇪🇺 HCOB Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (Nov) - 11:00 am

Previous reading (46.0)

Forecast (45.2)

PMI (Purchasing Managers Index) is a business activity index, which is one of the key indicators of a country's economic health. The PMI is calculated based on surveys of purchasing managers who assess the current conditions and outlook for their businesses. These surveys cover aspects such as output, new orders, inventories of goods, employment and shipments. A PMI above 50 indicates economic growth and expansion of business activity (currency appreciation). If the index is above 48 for an extended period of time, it may also indicate that the economy is still growing, albeit at a lower intensity. A reading below 48 indicates a contraction in business activity.

PMI Manufacturing - measures business activity in the manufacturing sector. It is derived from surveys of representatives of manufacturing companies that measure parameters such as output, new orders, employment and inventories. PMI Manufacturing is an important indicator of the health of the manufacturing industry, which plays a key role in the economy, especially in countries with developed industrial sectors.

🇬🇧 S&P Global/CIPS UK Manufacturing PMI (Nov) - 11:30 am

Previous figure (49.9)

Forecast (48.6)

🇪🇺 Unemployment Rate (Oct) - 12:00 pm

Previous figure (6.3%)

Forecast (6.3%)

TheUnemployment Rate is a measure that shows the percentage of people who are unemployed as a proportion of the total labor force. This indicator plays an important role in assessing the state of the economy, as the unemployment rate directly affects the welfare of the population and the economic stability of the country.

To accurately calculate the unemployment rate, it is necessary to determine who exactly is in the labor force. The labor force includes all people who either have a job or are actively looking for one, i.e. the unemployed. Those who are neither working nor looking for work, such as students, retirees, or housewives, are not considered part of the labor force and are not included in the calculation of the unemployment rate.

A higher unemployment rate may indicate problems in the economy, such as low demand for labor or structural changes.

🇺🇸 S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI (Nov) - 4:45 p.m.

Previous reading (48.5)

Forecast (48.8)

S&P Global readings from S&P Global have less influence and are considered not as accurate as those from ISM.

🇺🇸 ISM Manufacturing PMI (Nov) - 5:00 pm

Previous reading (46.5)

Forecast (47.5)

🗂️ CFTC Report - 22:30

TheCommitment of Traders (COT) Report is an important weekly report that provides detailed information on the aggregate futures positions of various categories of market participants on U.S. exchanges. It is published every Friday at 22:30 GMT+3 by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). This report serves as a snapshot of the market, showing the distribution of positions between large institutional investors, commercial participants and retail traders. This analysis helps you as traders and analysts to understand market sentiment, identify possible trends and predict future price movements based on how different groups of market participants allocate their positions.

Tuesday

🟠🇬🇧 BRC Retail Sales Monitor (YoY) (Nov) - 02:01 PM

🔴🇺🇸 JOLTS Job Openings (Oct) - 17:00

🟠🇺🇸 API Weekly Crude Oil Stock - 23:30

Let's take a look at the most important ones:

🇺🇸 JOLTS Job Openings (Oct) - 17:00

Previous (7.443M)

Forecast (7.490M)

The survey, conducted by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, helps measure job openings. It collects data from employers about employment at their facilities, job openings, recruitment, hiring, and layoffs.

JOLTS (Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey) defines job openings as all positions that remain open (unfilled) on the last business day of the month. A vacancy is considered "open" only if it meets all three of the following conditions:

A specific position exists and there is work available for that position.

The job can begin within 30 days, regardless of whether the business finds a suitable candidate within that period.

There is an active search for workers outside the location of the business where the vacancy exists.

A reading that turns out to be higher than forecast is usually supportive (strengthening) for the US dollar, while a reading that is lower than forecast is usually negative (weakening) for the US dollar.

Wednesday

🟠🇪🇺 HCOB Eurozone Services PMI (Nov) - 11:00 am

🟠🇬🇧 S&P Global/CIPS UK Services PMI (Nov) - 11:30 am

🟠🇪🇺 PPI (MoM) (Oct) - 12:00 pm

🔴 🇺🇸 ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Nov) - 2:00 pm

🔴 🇺🇸 S&P Global Services PMI (Nov) - 4:45 pm

🟠 🇺🇸 Factory Orders (MoM) (Oct) - 5:00 pm

🔴 🇺🇸 ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Nov) - 5:00 PM

🔴 🇺🇸 Crude Oil Inventories - 5:30 pm

🔴 🇺🇸 Fed Chair Powell Speaks - 8:45 p.m.

Let's take a look at the most important ones:

🇪🇺 HCOB Eurozone Services PMI (Nov) - 11:00 am

Previous reading (51.6)

Forecast (49.2)

PMI Services - reflects business activity in the services sector. It is based on surveys of companies operating in service industries such as transportation, communications, finance, health care and education. This index provides an indication of the status and outlook for the services sector, which in most developed economies accounts for a significant portion of GDP.

🇬🇧 S&P Global/CIPS UK Services PMI (Nov) - 11:30 am

Previous figure (52.0)

Forecast (50.0)

🇪🇺 PPI (MoM) (Oct) - 12:00 pm

Previous (-0.6%)

Forecast (0.4%)

PPI (Producer Price Index) - Pro ducer Price Index, reflects changes in the prices of goods and services from the point of view of their producers and sellers. This index covers a wide range of industries, including raw materials, materials and intermediate products. PPI has a lagged effect on measures of consumer inflation because changes in the prices of raw materials and intermediate goods are not immediately reflected in prices for final consumers. For example, an increase in metal prices may not immediately affect the price of a car at a car dealership, but over time this increased cost may be passed on to the consumer. It is important to note that PPI takes into account not only goods but also services, making it a comprehensive measure of price changes throughout the economy. This provides a more complete picture of economic processes and potential inflationary pressures.

How does the PPI score on price dynamics? The growth of values will be an incentive to tighten monetary policy and the corresponding strengthening of the currency.

🇺🇸 S&P Global Services PMI (Nov) - 16:45

Previous reading (55.0)

Forecast (57.0)

S&P Global figures from S&P Global have less influence and are considered not as accurate as those from ISM.

🇺🇸 ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Nov) - 5:00 pm

Previous reading (56.0)

Forecast (55.5)

Thursday

🟠🇪🇺 Retail Sales (MoM) (Oct) - 12:00 pm

🟠 🇺🇸 Continuing Jobless Claims - 3:30pm

🔴 🇺🇸 Initial Jobless Claims - 3:30 p.m.

🟠 🇺🇸 Trade Balance (Oct) - 15:30

Let's take a look at the most important ones:

🇪🇺 Retail Sales (MoM) (Oct) - 12:00 pm

Previous (0.5%)

Forecast (-0.4%)

Retail Sales track consumer demand for already manufactured goods. Retail sales data is released monthly by the U.S. Census Bureau and indicates the direction of the economy. It acts as a key economic barometer and determines whether inflationary pressures exist. Retail sales are measured by durable and non-durable goods purchased over a period of time. Sales data for the report are taken from 13 types of retail establishments ranging from food service establishments to retail stores.

A stronger than expected reading should be positive for the currency, while a weaker than expected reading should be negative for the currency.

🇺🇸 Initial Jobless Claims - 3:30 pm

Previous (213K)

Forecast (215K)

Initial Jobless Claims (IJC), orInitial Jobless Claims, is a weekly report published by the U.S. Department of Labor. This report records the number of Initial Jobless Claims filed during the previous week. The IJC report gives an idea of how many people first applied for unemployment assistance, which can indicate possible changes in the labor market. For example, a surge in applications may indicate the beginning of economic difficulties, such as a decline in business activity or a wave of layoffs. Conversely, a decline in applications is often interpreted as a sign that the labor market is improving and employment is rising.

This indicator is also a leading indicator of the economic cycle, as it allows us to gauge the current state of the economy before more comprehensive data such as employment or GDP reports are released. However, it is worth noting that Initial Jobless Claims may be subject to significant revisions, as the data may be adjusted in subsequent reports based on more complete information.

In addition, this indicator is sometimes subject to manipulation, especially during periods of economic uncertainty. This may be due to temporary factors such as seasonal fluctuations or government programs that may distort data in the short term.

A decline in the indicator may indicate a possible increase in inflation, which in turn would lead to a tightening of monetary policy and strengthening of the currency.

🇺🇸 Trade Balance (Oct) - 15:30

Previous (-84.40B)

Forecast (-75.70B)

Thetrade balance is an economic indicator that reflects the difference between the value of goods and services exported abroad and the value of goods and services imported into a country over a given period of time. If a country exports more goods and services than it imports, the balance of trade is considered positive, which means there is a trade surplus. In this case, a country's economy receives more income from foreign markets than it spends on buying foreign goods and services.

On the other hand, if a country imports more than it exports, then the trade balance becomes negative, indicating a trade deficit. This may indicate that a country's economy is more dependent on foreign goods and services than it produces and sells to foreign markets.

The trade balance is an important indicator of a country's economic health. A positive trade balance can strengthen the national currency and increase foreign exchange reserves, while a negative trade balance may signal problems with the competitiveness of the economy or a significant demand for imported goods. Economists and analysts closely monitor changes in the trade balance because they can have an impact on exchange rates, inflation, and a country's overall economic outlook.

Friday

🟠🇬🇧 Halifax House Price Index (Nov) - 09:00 AM

🟠🇪🇺 GDP (Q3) - 12:00 PM

🔴 🇺🇸 Average Hourly Earnings (Nov) - 15:30

🔴 🇺🇸 Nonfarm Payrolls (Nov) - 3:30 pm

🔴 🇺🇸 Unemployment Rate (Nov) - 3:30 pm

🟠 🇺🇸 Consumer Credit (Oct) - 22:00

Let's take a look at the most important ones:

🇪🇺 GDP (Q3) - 12:00 PM

Previous QoQ (0.4%); YoY (0.6%)

Forecast QoQ (0.4%); YoY (0.9%)

QoQ

YoY

Gross Domestic Product is a key economic indicator that measures the annual change in the value of all goods and services produced domestically. It is important to note that GDP takes into account inflation, that is, changes in the price level of goods and services. This allows us to measure the real growth of the economy, not just the increase in value due to rising prices.

GDP is the broadest and most comprehensive measure of economic activity, as it includes all sectors of the economy: industry, agriculture, services, construction and others. Because of this, GDP is used as the primary indicator of the health of the economy. When GDP is rising, it indicates that the economy is growing, production is increasing, and people are getting richer on average. Conversely, a decline in GDP can indicate a slowdown in economic activity or even the beginning of a recession.

It is published monthly. There are three versions of GDP released at one-month intervals - preliminary, second publication and final.

🇺🇸 Nonfarm Payrolls (Nov) - 3:30 pm

Previous (12K)

Forecast (202K)

NonfarmPayrolls is a key economic indicator that measures the change in the number of people employed in the economy during the previous month, excluding agricultural workers. This indicator is published monthly by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and is one of the most closely watched indicators of labor market conditions.

Nonfarm Payrolls covers virtually every sector of the economy except agriculture, making it an important indicator for assessing the overall state of employment in the country. This indicator includes workers in manufacturing, services, health care, construction, retail trade, and other industries. The exclusion of the agricultural sector is due to its seasonal nature and susceptibility to weather conditions, which can distort the overall employment picture.

The growth in employment indicates the creation of new jobs, which is a positive signal for the economy. Increased employment boosts consumer spending because people with jobs have income and tend to spend money on goods and services. Since consumer spending is a large part of economic activity, job creation directly affects overall economic growth.

A decline in the number of people employed, on the other hand, can indicate slower economic growth and lower consumer activity, which is a concern for economists and analysts. Therefore, the Nonfarm Payrolls indicator is important for forecasting further trends in the economy and making monetary policy decisions.

🇺🇸 Unemployment Rate (Nov) - 3:30 p.m.

Previous (4.1%)

Forecast (4.2%)

Crypto

BTC

Monthly

https://www.tradingview.com/x/ULcRkJA6/

The situation with BTC is still unchanged, I expect a correction to the 84000 range. The month of December often shows a correction before the continuation of the rally, so here we focus on a pullback and continuation of growth.

ETH

Monthly

https://www.tradingview.com/x/V84zr3dA/

We have absorbed the last quarter of correction perfectly, which means that the dominance of ether will gradually grow, we need to find favorable zones, one of them is the range 34370-3284, a place where I would like to see strength and start buying ether further.

Weekly

https://www.tradingview.com/x/rg8I4T9C/

Before the price reaches ATH, ideally make a micro-test of the zone of interest to start accumulating ether.

Daily

https://www.tradingview.com/x/TQJgzyuU/

There are 2 turn of events here. Here the price gets a reaction from the nearest zone and on the background of strength ignores the weakness of the market or on the contrary, there is a sharp decline and plum, but then the dominance increases sharply.

ETHBTC

Weekly

https://www.tradingview.com/x/an1ccJ3j/

The forces will be justified as price can form a structure.

USDT.D

Weekly

https://www.tradingview.com/x/9dBD8Nnq/

There may be a further decline here down to 3.79%, but I still aim to see at least 4.67%

BTC.D

https://www.tradingview.com/x/dQ3XZzDe/

The rally is starting, we just have to wait for the final momentum and that's it....

FX & Stock market

DXY

Weekly

https://www.tradingview.com/x/SoUFWK5W/

As expected, last week the DXY index started a correction after reaching the key 108.0 level, with the week closing exactly inside our indicated target, the FVG BISI. We believe that DXY will continue its downtrend with an inversion of the current FVG BISI, and will move towards the SSL 103.3 level as a key target for now. The 104.8 level will be a trouble zone where the index could stall.

Daily

https://www.tradingview.com/x/xChwdL8c/

From the daily timeframe perspective, we can consider a downward movement from the GAP zone, or through a correction to the 107 level. The level of 104.8 as a problem zone and the level of 103.3 as the main target.

EURUSD

Weekly

https://www.tradingview.com/x/7amuL2ev/

EURUSD moved up, having consolidated inside the global consolidation, however, it did not reach the FVG SIBI zone. In this case, the priority of work will remain longing, where the problem zone will be this FVG SIBI, and the main target is the level of 1.076 (50% of consolidation).

Daily

https://www.tradingview.com/x/PFLE2baK/

From the point of view of the daily timeframe we can assume a correction to the removal of the level 1.05, with further upward movement to FVG SIBI and the level 1.076

GBPUSD

Weekly

https://www.tradingview.com/x/WbDSMWIa/

GBPUSD again fulfills our weekly plan and forms a reversal from the indicated level of 1.25, reaching the first target in the form of FVG SIBI. At the moment, the FVG SIBI data should be closely monitored.

Daily

https://www.tradingview.com/x/YxMsgCGS/

From the point of view of the daily timeframe we assume a correction to the FVG BISI zone with the removal of 1.264, and further upward movement to overlap FVG SIBI to the level of 1.283. There are assumptions that this FVG SIBI will be broken, which will open the way to the level of 1.30.

SP500

Weekly

https://www.tradingview.com/x/4UjFZXFB/

The SP500 index updates the ATN again, but the week closes below the high, which could mean consolidation is forming. The GAP zone is acting as support.

Daily

https://www.tradingview.com/x/x26Cetn6/

From a daily timeframe perspective, it is hard to tell, but we believe that the SP500 will come down to overlap the GAP zone and then, continue the uptrend, or break the GAP zone and then we will see consolidation. We should wait for the decoupling, but in the meantime we can work short to the GAP zone.

NQ100

Daily

https://www.tradingview.com/x/eDIEJWD3/

NQ100 is well behind the SP500 forming SMT, but the NQ100 chart tells us through its OF that the upward direction is correct. We assume upward movement to the first target in the form of BSL, and further on ATH.