Weekly plan - 02.09 - 06.09.2024

Macro

The week is expected to be quite volatile with a lot of fundamental news. The most attention, of course, should be paid to Thursday and Friday, when US business activity and labor market data are released. On Wednesday it is worth paying attention to the Eurozone PPI for July, which may give a preview of the CPI for August. On Tuesday we pay attention to the states manufacturing PMI which has contracted for 4 months in a row and shows a rascolution with services. On Monday we look at the Eurozone and British manufacturing activity figures, the latter showing a prolonged momentum for a long time, which is laid down in the value of the pound.

Monday

🇺🇸 Holiday - All Day

🇪🇺 HCOB Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (Aug) - 11:00 am

🇬🇧 HCS&P Global/CIPS UK Manufacturing PMI (Aug) - 11.30.

Let's break down the most important ones:

🇪🇺 HCOB Eurozone HCOB Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (Aug) - 11:00

Previous reading (45.8)

Forecast (45.6)

🇬🇧 HCS&P Global/CIPS UK Manufacturing PMI (Aug) - 11.30

Previous figure (52.1)

Forecast (52.5)

ThePurchasing Managers Index (PMI) is a business activity index, which is one of the key indicators of a country's economic health. The PMI is calculated based on surveys of purchasing managers who assess the current conditions and outlook for their businesses. These surveys cover aspects such as output, new orders, inventories of goods, employment and shipments. A PMI above 50 indicates economic growth and expansion of business activity (currency appreciation). If the index is above 48 for an extended period of time, it may also indicate that the economy is still growing, albeit at a lower intensity. A reading below 48 indicates a contraction in business activity.

PMI Manufacturing - measures business activity in the manufacturing sector. It is derived from surveys of representatives of manufacturing companies that measure parameters such as output, new orders, employment and inventories. PMI Manufacturing is an important indicator of the health of the manufacturing industry, which plays a key role in the economy, especially in countries with developed industrial sectors.

PMI Services - reflects business activity in the services sector. It is based on surveys of companies operating in service industries such as transportation, communications, finance, health care and education. This index provides an indication of the state and outlook for the services sector, which in most advanced economies accounts for a significant portion of GDP.

Tuesday

🇺🇸 S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI (Aug) - 4:45 p.m.

🇺🇸 Construction Spending (MoM) (Jul) - 5:00 p.m.

I🇺🇸 SM Manufacturing Employment (Aug) - 17:00

🇺🇸 ISM Manufacturing PMI (Aug) - 17:00

🇺🇸 ISM Manufacturing Prices (Aug) - 17:00

🇺🇸 Atlanta Fed GDPNow - 18:00

🇺🇸 3-Month Bill Auction - 6:30 p.m.

🇺🇸 6-Month Bill Auction - 6:30 p.m.

Let's break down the most important ones:

🇺🇸 S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI (Aug) - 4:45pm

Previous reading (49.6)

Forecast (48.0)

The S&P Global reading from S&P Global has less impact and is considered not as accurate as the one from ISM.

🇺🇸 ISM Manufacturing PMI (Aug) - 5:00 pm

Previous reading (46.8)

Forecast (47.8)

🇺🇸 Atlanta Fed GDPNow - 6:00 p.m.

Previous (2.5%)

Forecast (2.5%)

GDPNow is not an official forecast from the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. It should be viewed as a current estimate of real GDP growth based on available economic data for the current measured quarter. GDPNow does not include subjective adjustments - the estimate is based solely on the mathematical results of the model. In particular, it does not take into account the effects of COVID-19 and social mobility beyond their impact on the raw GDP data and related economic reports that have already been published. GDPNow also does not predict their impact on future economic reports beyond the standard internal dynamics of the model.

🇺🇸 3-Month Bill Auction - 6:30 p.m.

🇺🇸 6-Month Bill Auction - 6:30 p.m.

The yield on auctioned government bonds reflects the return that an investor will receive by holding the bond to maturity. Governments issue these obligations to cover budget deficits and refinance debt. The average yield at auction is important for assessing the health of the economy and the level of confidence in the government.

Fluctuations in yields can indicate changes in the economy and investor expectations. If yields are rising compared to previous auctions, it may indicate a decline in confidence or expectations of rising interest rates and currency appreciation.

Wednesday

🇪🇺 HCOB Eurozone Composite PMI (Aug) - 11:00 am

🇪🇺 HCOB Eurozone Services PMI (Aug) - 11:00 AM

🇬🇧 S&P Global/CIPS UK Composite PMI (Aug) - 11:30 am

🇬🇧 S&P Global/CIPS UK Services PMI (Aug) - 11:30 am

🇪🇺 PPI (MoM) (Jul) - 12:00 pm

🇪🇺 PPI (YoY) (Jul) - 12:00 pm

🇺🇸 Trade Balance (Jul) - 15:30

🇺🇸 Factory Orders (MoM) (Jul) - 17:00

🇺🇸 JOLTs Job Openings (Jul) - 17:00

🇺🇸 API Weekly Crude Oil Stock - 23:30

Let's break down the most important ones:

🇪🇺 HCOB Eurozone Composite/Services PMI (Aug) - 11:00 am

Previous Composite (51.2); Services (53.3)

Forecast Composite (51.2); Services (53.3)

Services

Composite

🇬🇧 S&P Global/CIPS UK Composite/Services PMI (Aug) - 11:30 am

Previous Composite (53.4); Services (53.3)

Forecast Composite (53.4); Services (53.3)

Services

Composite

🇪🇺 PPI (Jul) - 12:00 pm

Previous MoM (0.5% ); YoY (-3.2%)

Forecast MoM (0.2% ); YoY (-2.6%)

MoM

YoY

PPI (Producer Price Index) - Producer Price Index, reflects changes in the prices of goods and services from the point of view of their producers and sellers. This index covers a wide range of industries, including raw materials, materials and intermediate products. PPI has a lagged effect on measures of consumer inflation because changes in the prices of raw materials and intermediate goods are not immediately reflected in prices for final consumers. For example, an increase in metal prices may not immediately affect the price of a car at a car dealership, but over time this increased cost may be passed on to the consumer. It is important to note that PPI takes into account not only goods but also services, making it a comprehensive measure of price changes throughout the economy. This provides a more complete picture of economic processes and potential inflationary pressures.

How does the PPI score on price dynamics? A rise in values will be an incentive to tighten monetary policy and the corresponding strengthening of the currency.

🇺🇸 Trade Balance (Jul) - 15:30

Previous reading (-73.10B)

Forecast (-74.00B)

Trade Balance is an economic indicator that reflects the difference between the value of goods and services exported abroad and the value of goods and services imported into a country over a given period of time. If a country exports more goods and services than it imports, the balance of trade is considered positive, which means there is a trade surplus. In this case, a country's economy receives more income from foreign markets than it spends on buying foreign goods and services.

On the other hand, if a country imports more than it exports, then the trade balance becomes negative, indicating a trade deficit. This may indicate that a country's economy is more dependent on foreign goods and services than it produces and sells to foreign markets.

The trade balance is an important indicator of a country's economic health. A positive trade balance can strengthen the national currency and increase foreign exchange reserves, while a negative trade balance may signal problems with the competitiveness of the economy or a significant demand for imported goods. Economists and analysts closely monitor changes in the trade balance as they can have an impact on exchange rates, inflation and a country's overall economic outlook.

🇺🇸 JOLTs Job Openings (Jul) - 5:00 p.m.

Previous figure (8.184M)

Forecast (8.09M)

The survey, conducted by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, helps measure job openings. It collects data from employers about employment at their facilities, job openings, recruitment, hiring and layoffs.

JOLTS (Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey) definesjob openings as all positions that remain open (unfilled) on the last business day of the month. A vacancy is considered "open" only if it meets all three of the following conditions:

1. A specific position exists and there is work available for that position.
2. The job can begin within 30 days, regardless of whether the business finds a suitable candidate within that period.
3. There is an active search for workers outside the location of the business where the vacancy exists.

A reading that turns out to be higher than forecast is usually supportive (strengthening) for the US dollar, while a reading that is lower than forecast is usually negative (weakening) for the US dollar.

Thursday

🇪🇺 HCOB Eurozone Construction PMI (MoM) (Aug) - 10:30 am

🇬🇧 S&P Global / CIPS UK Construction PMI (Aug) - 11:30 am

🇪🇺 Retail Sales (YoY) (Jul) - 12:00 pm

🇪🇺 Retail Sales (MoM) (Jul) - 12:00 pm

🇺🇸 ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Aug) - 15:15

🇺🇸 Initial Jobless Claims - 15:30

🇺🇸 S&P Global Composite PMI (Aug) - 16:45

🇺🇸 S&P Global Services PMI (Aug) - 16:45

🇺🇸 ISM Non-Manufacturing Employment (Aug) - 17:00

🇺🇸 ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Aug) - 17:00

🇺🇸 ISM Non-Manufacturing Prices (Aug) - 17:00

🇺🇸 Crude Oil Inventories - 18:00

🇺🇸 Fed's Balance Sheet - 23:30.

Let's break down the most important ones:

🇪🇺 HCOB Eurozone Construction PMI (MoM) (Aug) - 10:30 am

Previous reading (41.4)

Forecast (42)

🇬🇧 S&P Global / CIPS UK Construction PMI (Aug) - 11:30 AM

Previous MoM (55.3)

MoM forecast (54.1)

🇪🇺 Retail Sales (Jul) - 12:00 PM

Previous MoM (-0.3% )

MoM forecast (0.1%)

🇺🇸 Unemployment Claims/Initial Jobless Claims - 3:30 pm

Previous MoM (231K)

Forecast (247.0K)

Initial Jobless Claims (IJC), or unemployment claims, is a weekly report published by the U.S. Department of Labor (Labor Department). This report records the number of Initial Jobless Claims filed during the previous week. The IJC report gives an idea of how many people first applied for unemployment assistance, which can indicate possible changes in the labor market. For example, a surge in applications may indicate the beginning of economic difficulties, such as a decline in business activity or a wave of layoffs. Conversely, a decline in applications is often interpreted as a sign that the labor market is improving and employment is rising.

This indicator is also a leading indicator of the economic cycle, as it allows us to gauge the current state of the economy before more comprehensive data such as employment or GDP reports are released. However, it is worth noting that Initial Jobless Claims may be subject to significant revisions, as the data may be adjusted in subsequent reports based on more complete information.

In addition, this indicator is sometimes subject to manipulation, especially during periods of economic uncertainty. This may be due to temporary factors such as seasonal fluctuations or government programs that may distort data in the short term.

A lower reading could indicate a possible rise in inflation, which in turn would lead to tighter monetary policy and a stronger currency.

🇺🇸 S&P Global Composite/ServicesPMI (Aug) - 4:45 p.m.

Previous Composite (54.1); Services (55.2)

Forecast Composite (54.1); Services (55.2)

Services

Composite

The S&P Global figures from S&P Global have less influence and are considered not as accurate as those from ISM.

🇺🇸 ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Aug) - 5:00 p.m.

Previous reading (51.4)

Forecast (51.5)

Friday

🇬🇧 Mortgage Rate (GBP) (Aug) - 12:00 pm

🇪🇺 GDP (YoY) (Q2) - 12:00 pm

🇪🇺 GDP (QoQ) (Q2) - 12:00 pm

🇺🇸 Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) (Aug) - 15:30

🇺🇸 Nonfarm Payrolls (Aug) - 15:30

🇺🇸 Unemployment Rate (Aug) - 15:30

🗂️ CFTC Report - 22:30

Let's break down the most important ones:

🇪🇺 GDP (Q2) - 12:00 PM

Previous QoQ (0.3% ); YoY (0.4%)

Forecast QoQ (0.3% ); YoY (0.6%)

QoQ

YoY

Gross Domestic Product is a key economic indicator that measures the annual change in the value of all goods and services produced domestically. It is important to note that GDP takes into account inflation, that is, changes in the price level of goods and services. This allows us to measure the real growth of the economy, not just the increase in value due to rising prices.

GDP is the broadest and most comprehensive measure of economic activity, as it includes all sectors of the economy: industry, agriculture, services, construction and others. Because of this, GDP is used as the primary indicator of the health of the economy. When GDP is rising, it indicates that the economy is growing, production is increasing, and people are getting richer on average. Conversely, a decline in GDP can indicate a slowdown in economic activity or even the beginning of a recession.

It is published monthly. There are three versions of GDP released one month apart - preliminary, second publication and final.

🇺🇸 Nonfarm Payrolls (Aug) - 3:30 p.m.

Previous figure (114K)

Forecast (163K)

Nonfarm Payrolls is a key economic indicator that measures the change in the number of people employed in the economy during the previous month, excluding agricultural workers. This indicator is published monthly by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and is one of the most closely watched indicators of labor market conditions.

Nonfarm Payrolls covers virtually all sectors of the economy except agriculture, making it an important indicator for assessing the overall state of employment in the country. This indicator includes workers in industry, services, health care, construction, retail trade and other sectors. The exclusion of the agricultural sector is due to its seasonal nature and susceptibility to weather conditions, which can distort the overall employment picture.

The growth in employment indicates the creation of new jobs, which is a positive signal for the economy. Increased employment boosts consumer spending because people with jobs have income and tend to spend money on goods and services. Since consumer spending is a large part of economic activity, job creation directly affects overall economic growth.

A decline in the number of people employed, on the other hand, can indicate slower economic growth and lower consumer activity, which is a concern for economists and analysts. Therefore, the Nonfarm Payrolls indicator is important for forecasting further trends in the economy and making monetary policy decisions.

🇺🇸 Unemployment Rate (Aug) - 15:30

Previous Rate (4.3%)

Forecast (4.2%)

TheUnemployment Rate is an indicator that shows the percentage of people who are unemployed to the total labor force. This indicator plays an important role in assessing the state of the economy, as the unemployment rate directly affects the welfare of the population and the economic stability of the country.

To accurately calculate the unemployment rate, it is necessary to determine who exactly is in the labor force. The labor force includes all people who either have a job or are actively looking for one, i.e. the unemployed. Those who are neither working nor looking for work, such as students, retirees, or housewives, are not considered part of the labor force and are not included in the calculation of the unemployment rate.

A higher unemployment rate may indicate problems in the economy, such as low demand for labor or structural changes.

🗂️ CFTC Report - 22:30

TheCommitment of Traders (COT) Report is an important weekly report that provides detailed information on the aggregate futures positions of various categories of market participants on U.S. exchanges. It is published every Friday at 22:30 GMT+3 by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). This report serves as a snapshot of the market, showing the distribution of positions between large institutional investors, commercial participants and retail traders. This analysis helps you as traders and analysts to understand market sentiment, identify possible trends and predict future price movements based on how different groups of market participants allocate their positions.

Crypto

BTC/USDT

Monthly

https://www.tradingview.com/x/YFQkETFn/

The month closed perfectly. Here we make 3DP or get correction and catch demand in 0.5 RB range, go accumulate and gain strength on ATH.

Weekly

https://www.tradingview.com/x/U84lC2bX/

Most likely the week will close with a takeover. Either way there will be a correction and the first zone I am interested in is 53500. If it shows strength then we will start gaining strength if the test is Wednesday-Thursday.

Daily

https://www.tradingview.com/x/Qit9cWR2/

Similar situation as for the periods above.

ETH/USDT

Monthly

https://www.tradingview.com/x/vzBuCexN/

I am not interested in anything here: whether it is a reaction with accumulation and exit from current or a re-flop, as the candle is weak for buyers and we may have a sweep and exit in September or a takeover.

Weekly

https://www.tradingview.com/x/CAoBXWle/

There are a lot more developmental stages here on the younger periods. I am more eager to see the 1st option than the 2nd and 3rd as I am in the ether longs on futures. If I am wrong, the price will go to stage 2 and 3, but I will only dock to spot after option 3.

Daily

https://www.tradingview.com/x/LxiQn232/

I don't change anything here, I only discard the stage of exit from current, there is nothing to add.

ETH/BTC

Weekly

https://www.tradingview.com/x/VmyRV4pD/

The situation does not change.

FX & Stock market

DXY

Daily

https://www.tradingview.com/x/OjT4iBFq/

DXY index, as expected last week, started an upward correction, where at the moment it removed the first internal BSL, with a test of FVG SIBI. We assume a continuation of the upward movement, through a return to FVG BISI or from the current marks, to the first problematic zone 102.2, from where it can turn to the downside. Globally we assume removal of Internal BSL at 103.5.

EURUSD

Weekly

https://www.tradingview.com/x/1JAjzGdu/

EURUSD is clearly looking to get back to test the major 1.10 level with the overlap of the weekly FVG BISI and a test of the upper boundary of the global consolidation.

Daily

https://www.tradingview.com/x/T53CDBWE/

From the perspective of the daily timeframe, we assume the drop of the mentioned level 1.10, through the correction to the daily FVG SIBI with further movement to the test of 1.10, from where we can expect an upward reaction.

GBPUSD

Daily

https://www.tradingview.com/x/yjP9ZYLQ/

GBPUSD as indicated earlier is aiming for 1.3050 level. At the current moment after the removal of the key high (External BSL), an OB with FVG BISI inversion was formed, For this reason we expect a downward movement to the first problematic zone of 1.3050, either from the current values or through a test of the OB.

SP500 / NQ100

Daily

https://www.tradingview.com/x/KdxCdsCV/

The narrative remains unchanged, we also expect a move to the External BSL 5721 on SP500 and overlap of FVG SIBI 20000 zone on NQ100. At the moment SP500 index is still in sideways movement, and it did not test the FVG BISI marked below, unlike NQ100 index, which moved in downward compression and overlapped the FVG BISI marked by us. Thus, we have an upward discordance. Presumably, both indices will start an upward movement from the beginning of the week, in particular, the key to this movement will be ISM Manufacturing PMI, with expectations at 47.5, which is 0.7 bps above the previous value of 46.8.