Weekly plan - 28.10 - 01.11.2024

Macro

It will be a very busy week. Particular focus on the second half, in which we will see the publication of the first US and Eurozone GDP calculations and the PCE with the US unemployment rate, which will be key indicators in the Fed's rate decision on November 7.

Monday:

🟢 🇬🇧 CBI Distributive Trades Survey - 1:00 pm 🟢 🇺🇸 Dallas Fed Mfg Business Index - 5:30 pm 🟢 🇺🇸 2y T-Note Auction - 7:00 pm 🟢 🇺🇸 5y T-Note Auction - 7:00 pm

Let's break down the most important ones:

🇺🇸 2y T-Note Auction - 7:00 p.m.

The yield on auctioned government bonds reflects the return an investor will receive by holding the bond to maturity. Governments issue these obligations to cover budget deficits and refinance debt. The average yield at auction is important for assessing the health of the economy and the level of confidence in the government.

Fluctuations in yields can indicate changes in the economy and investor expectations. If yields are rising compared to previous auctions, it may indicate a decline in confidence or expectations of rising interest rates and currency appreciation.

🇺🇸 5y T-Note Auction - 7:00 p.m.

The yield on auctioned government bonds reflects the return an investor will receive by holding the bond until maturity. Governments issue these obligations to cover budget deficits and refinance debt. The average yield at auction is important for assessing the health of the economy and the level of confidence in the government.

Fluctuations in yields can indicate changes in the economy and investor expectations. If yields are rising compared to previous auctions, it could indicate a decline in confidence or expectations of rising interest rates and a strengthening currency.

Tuesday:

🟠 🇩🇪 Consumer Climate -09:00 🟢 🇬🇧 M3 Money Supply - 11:30 🟢 🇬🇧 M4 Money Supply - 11:30 🟢 🇬🇧 Mortgage Approvals - 11:30 🟠 🇺🇸 Goods Trade Balance - 14:30 🟢 🇺🇸 Retail Inventories - 14:30 🟢 🇺🇸 Business Inventories - 14:30 🟢 🇺🇸 House Price Index - 15:00 🟠 🇺🇸 JOLTs Job Openings - 16:00 🟠 🇺🇸 CB Consumer Confidence - 4:00 pm 🟠 🇺🇸 Dallas Fed Services Revenues - 4:30 pm 🟢 🇺🇸 Texas Services Sector Outlook - 4:30 pm

Let's break down the most important ones:

🇺🇸 CB Consumer Confidence - 4:00 p.m.

Previous MoM (98.7)

MoM Forecast (98.8)

The Consumer Confidence Index, which is calculated by an organization called the Conference Board (CB), is an important tool for gauging consumer sentiment about the economic situation. This index shows how confident people are about the sustainability of the economy and their financial capabilities. A high level of consumer confidence usually indicates that people are willing to spend money on purchases, which in turn stimulates economic growth. Since consumer spending accounts for a significant portion of gross domestic product (GDP), consumer confidence is an important leading indicator to predict future economic trends.

When the index shows high values, it means that consumers perceive economic stability and are willing to actively participate in purchases, investments and other economic activities. This creates favorable conditions for businesses, which can count on increased demand for their goods and services. On the other hand, low consumer confidence can signal that people are worried about their financial future and tend to postpone large purchases or savings, which can slow economic growth. Thus, changes in the consumer confidence index can provide insight into consumer sentiment and expectations for the future, making it an important tool for economic analysis and decision-making by investors and policymakers.

🇺🇸 JOLTs Job Openings - 4:00 p.m.

Previous MoM (3M)

MoM (3M) Forecast

The survey, conducted by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, helps measure job openings. It collects data from employers about employment at their facilities, job openings, recruitment, hiring and layoffs.

JOLTS (Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey) defines job openings as all positions that remain open (unfilled) on the last business day of the month. A vacancy is considered "open" only if it meets all three of the following conditions:

1. A specific position exists and there is work available for that position.
2. The job can begin within 30 days, regardless of whether the business finds a suitable candidate within that period.
3. There is an active search for workers outside the location of the business where the vacancy exists.

A reading that turns out to be higher than forecast is usually supportive (strengthening) for the U.S. dollar, while a reading that is lower than forecast is usually negative (weakening) for the U.S. dollar.

Wednesday:

🟠 🇫🇷 GDP - 08:30 🟠 🇪🇸 CPI - 10:00 🟠 🇩🇪 Unemployment Rate - 10:55 🔴 🇪🇺 GDP (Prelim) - 12:00 🟢 🇺🇸 30y Mortage Rate + Mortage Index - 13:00 🟠 🇺🇸 ADP Non-Farm Employment Change - 14:15 🔴 🇺🇸 GDP Price Index q2 - 14: 30 🔴 🇺🇸 GDP q2 - 14: 30 🟢 🇺🇸 (Prelim) Real Consumer Spending (Q3) - 14: 30 🔴 🇩🇪 (Prelim) CPI - 15: 00 🟢 🇺🇸 Pending Home Sales - 16: 00

Let's break down the most important ones:

🇩🇪 Unemployment Rate - 10:55 AM

Previous MoM (6.0%)

MoM Forecast (6.1%)

The UnemploymentRate is an indicator that shows the percentage of people who are unemployed to the total labor force. This indicator plays an important role in assessing the state of the economy, as the unemployment rate directly affects the welfare of the population and the economic stability of the country.

To accurately calculate the unemployment rate, it is necessary to determine who exactly is in the labor force. The labor force includes all people who either have a job or are actively looking for one, i.e. the unemployed. Those who are neither working nor looking for work, such as students, retirees, or housewives, are not considered part of the labor force and are not included in the calculation of the unemployment rate.

A higher unemployment rate may indicate problems in the economy, such as low demand for labor or structural changes.

🇪🇺 GDP (Prelim) - 13:00

Previous QoQ (0.2%)

Forecast QoQ (0.2%)

Gross Domestic Product is a key economic indicator that measures the annual change in the value of all goods and services produced domestically. It is important to note that GDP takes into account inflation, that is, changes in the price level of goods and services. This allows us to measure the real growth of the economy, not just the increase in value due to rising prices.

GDP is the broadest and most comprehensive measure of economic activity, as it includes all sectors of the economy: industry, agriculture, services, construction and others. Because of this, GDP is used as the primary indicator of the health of the economy. When GDP is rising, it indicates that the economy is growing, production is increasing, and people are getting richer on average. Conversely, a decline in GDP can indicate a slowdown in economic activity or even the beginning of a recession.

It is published monthly. There are three versions of GDP released one month apart - preliminary, second publication and final.

🇺🇸 ADP Non-Farm Employment Change - 2:15 p.m.

Previous MoM figure (143K)

MoM Forecast (110K)

Nonfarm Payrolls is a key economic indicator that measures the change in the number of people employed in the economy during the previous month, excluding agricultural workers. This indicator is published monthly by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and is one of the most closely watched indicators of labor market conditions.

Nonfarm Payrolls covers almost all sectors of the economy, except agriculture, which makes it an important indicator for assessing the overall state of employment in the country. This indicator includes workers in manufacturing, services, health care, construction, retail trade, and other industries. The exclusion of the agricultural sector is due to its seasonal nature and susceptibility to weather conditions, which can distort the overall employment picture.

The growth in employment indicates the creation of new jobs, which is a positive signal for the economy. Increased employment boosts consumer spending because people with jobs have income and tend to spend money on goods and services. Since consumer spending is a large part of economic activity, job creation directly affects overall economic growth.

A decline in the number of people employed, on the other hand, can indicate slower economic growth and lower consumer activity, which is a concern for economists and analysts. Therefore, the Nonfarm Payrolls indicator is important for forecasting further trends in the economy and making monetary policy decisions.

🇺🇸 GDP Price Index q2 - 14:30

Previous QoQ (2.5%)

Forecast QoQ (2.7%)

TheGDP Price Index is a key economic indicator that measures the rate of inflation based on changes in the prices of goods and services produced in the United States. This index reflects how the prices of domestically created products change, and it is used to estimate the overall inflation rate in the economy. It is important to note that the index only covers goods and services that are produced in the United States and exported abroad. Prices of goods and services imported into the country are not included in this index. This means that the GDP price index provides an indication of how prices are changing within the country, but does not take into account external factors, such as the cost of imported goods, which can also affect the inflation rate in the economy. This indicator is widely used to analyze economic stability and understand price dynamics over the long term.

How does wagering on price dynamics play out? Like any other indicator of inflation dynamics. An increase in values will be an incentive to tighten monetary policy and the corresponding strengthening of the currency, and vice versa.

🇺🇸 GDP q2 - 14:30

Previous QoQ (3.0%)

Forecast QoQ (3.0%)

Gross Domestic Product is a key economic indicator that measures the annual change in the value of all goods and services produced domestically. It is important to note that GDP takes into account inflation, that is, changes in the price level of goods and services. This allows us to measure the real growth of the economy, not just the increase in value due to rising prices.

GDP is the broadest and most comprehensive measure of economic activity, as it includes all sectors of the economy: industry, agriculture, services, construction and others. Because of this, GDP is used as the primary indicator of the health of the economy. When GDP is rising, it indicates that the economy is growing, production is increasing, and people are getting richer on average. Conversely, a decline in GDP can indicate a slowdown in economic activity or even the beginning of a recession.

It is published monthly. There are three versions of GDP released at one-month intervals - preliminary, second publication and final.

🇩🇪 CPI - 15:00

Previous MoM (0.0%) YoY (1.06%)

Forecast MoM (0.2%) YoY (1.8%)

TheConsumer Price Index (CPI) is one of the key economic indicators widely used to gauge the inflation rate of a country. This index is calculated based on a careful measurement of changes in the prices of a wide range of goods and services that are included in the so-called "consumer basket". In the structure of the CPI, approximately 2/3 of the basket consists of services and 1/3 of goods. This distribution reflects current trends in developed economies, where the service sector plays an increasingly important role.

Core CPI, or core CPI, is a modified version of the standard CPI. The key difference of Core CPI is that two important components are excluded from its calculation: food and energy. Using Core CPI along with the standard CPI gives a more complete picture of inflationary processes. While the CPI reflects changes in the general price level, including short-term fluctuations, the Core CPI allows assessing underlying inflationary trends that are less susceptible to temporary factors.

Regular monitoring of these indicators allows the Central Bank to assess the effectiveness of monetary policy, forecast economic trends and make informed decisions in the field of economic regulation.

How does the price dynamics play out? A rise in values will be an incentive to tighten monetary policy and the corresponding strengthening of the currency, and vice versa.

Thursday:

🟢 🇩🇪 Import Price Index - 09:00 🟠 🇩🇪 Retail Sales - 09:00 🟢 🇫🇷 CPI - 09:45 🟢 🇪🇸 Current account - 11:00 🔴 🇪🇺 CPI - 12:00 🔴 🇪🇺 Core CPI - 12:00 🔴 🇪🇺 Unemployment Rate - 12:00 🔴 🇺🇸 Unemployment Claims - 14:30 🔴 🇺🇸 Core PCE Price Index - 14:30 🔴 🇺🇸 PCE Price Index - 14:30 🟠 🇺🇸 Dallas Fed PCE - 15:00 🟠 🇺🇸 Chicago PMI - 15:45 🟢 🇺🇸 FEDʼs Balance Sheet - 22:30 🟢 🇺🇸 Reserve Balances with FED - 22:30

Let's break down the most important ones:

🇩🇪 Retail Sales - 09:00

Previous MoM (1.6%)

MoM Forecast (-0.5%)

Retail Sales track consumer demand for already manufactured goods. Retail Sales data is released monthly by the U.S. Census Bureau and indicates the direction of the economy. It acts as a key economic barometer and determines whether inflationary pressures exist. Retail sales are measured by durable and non-durable goods purchased over a period of time. Sales data for the report is drawn from 13 types of retail establishments, ranging from food service establishments to retail stores.

A stronger than expected reading should be positive for the currency, while a weaker than expected reading should be negative for the currency.

🇪🇺 CPI - 12:00

Previous MoM (-0.1%) YoY (1.7%)

Forecast MoM (0.1%) YoY (1.9%)

🇪🇺 Core CPI - 12:00

Previous YoY (2.7%)

Forecast YoY (2.7%)

TheConsumer Price Index (CPI) is one of the key economic indicators widely used to gauge a country's inflation rate. This index is calculated based on a careful measurement of changes in the prices of a wide range of goods and services that are included in the so-called "consumer basket". In the structure of the CPI, approximately 2/3 of the basket consists of services and 1/3 of goods. This distribution reflects current trends in developed economies, where the services sector plays an increasingly important role.

Core CPIThe Core CPI is a modified version of the standard CPI. The key difference of Core CPI is that two important components are excluded from the calculation of this indicator: food and energy. Using Core CPI along with the standard CPI gives a more complete picture of inflationary processes. While the CPI reflects changes in the general price level, including short-term fluctuations, the Core CPI allows assessing underlying inflationary trends, which are less susceptible to temporary factors.

Regular monitoring of these indicators allows the Central Bank to assess the effectiveness of monetary policy, forecast economic trends and make informed decisions in the field of economic regulation.

How does the price dynamics play out? The growth of values will be an incentive to tighten monetary policy and the corresponding strengthening of the currency, and vice versa.

🇪🇺 Unemployment Rate - 12:00 pm

Previous MoM (6.04%)

MoM Forecast (6.4%)

The UnemploymentRate is an indicator that shows the percentage of people who are unemployed to the total labor force. This indicator plays an important role in assessing the state of the economy, as the unemployment rate directly affects the welfare of the population and the economic stability of the country.

To accurately calculate the unemployment rate, it is necessary to determine who exactly is in the labor force. The labor force includes all people who either have a job or are actively looking for one, i.e. the unemployed. Those who are neither working nor looking for work, such as students, retirees, or housewives, are not considered part of the labor force and are not included in the calculation of the unemployment rate.

A higher unemployment rate may indicate problems in the economy, such as low demand for labor or structural changes.

🇺🇸 Unemployment Claims - 2:30 p.m.

Previous MoM figure (227K)

MoM Forecast (231K)

Initial Jobless Claims (IJC), or unemployment claims, is a weekly report published by the U.S. Department of Labor (Department of Labor). This report records the number of Initial Jobless Claims filed during the previous week. The IJC report gives an idea of how many people first applied for unemployment assistance, which can indicate possible changes in the labor market. For example, a surge in applications may indicate the beginning of economic difficulties, such as a decline in business activity or a wave of layoffs. Conversely, a decline in applications is often interpreted as a sign that the labor market is improving and employment is rising.

This indicator is also a leading indicator of the economic cycle, as it allows us to gauge the current state of the economy before more comprehensive data such as employment or GDP reports are released. However, it is worth noting that Initial Jobless Claims may be subject to significant revisions, as the data may be adjusted in subsequent reports based on more complete information.

In addition, this indicator is sometimes subject to manipulation, especially during periods of economic uncertainty. This may be due to temporary factors such as seasonal fluctuations or government programs that may distort data in the short term.

A lower reading could indicate a possible rise in inflation, which in turn would lead to tighter monetary policy and a stronger currency.

🇺🇸 Core PCE Price Index - 2:30 p.m.

Previous YoY (2.7%)

Forecast YoY (2.7%)

🇺🇸 PCE Price Index - 14:30

Previous MoM (0.1%) YoY (2.2%)

Forecast MoM (0.1%) YoY (2.1%)

Another inflation metric that is the most important of all the others, because it is what the Fed looks at when setting the target rate.

ThePCE Price Index, which is published monthly in the Personal Income and Expenditures report, is an important indicator that tracks changes in the prices of goods and services purchased by consumers in the United States. This index takes into account a wide range of goods and services, from food and clothing to health care and electronics, making it a key indicator of inflation. Importantly, in addition to monthly data, PCE price index information is also included in quarterly and annual GDP reports, providing a better understanding of overall trends in the economy and their impact on people's purchasing power. The PCE is one of the tools the Federal Reserve uses to assess inflation risks and make monetary policy decisions.

Core PCE Price Index excluding food and energy, also known as the PCE core price index, is published as part of the monthly personal income and expenditure report. The core index makes it easier to determine the underlying trend in inflation by excluding two categories-food and energy-whose prices tend to fluctuate more sharply and more frequently than other goods and services. The Federal Reserve closely monitors the PCE core price index when conducting monetary policy.

The effects on the currency can be two-way: a rise in the PCE can lead to higher interest rates and an appreciation of the national currency; on the other hand, during a recession, a rise in the PCE can lead to a deepening of the recession and thus a depreciation of the national currency.

Friday:

🟢 🇫🇷 Government Budget Balance - 08:45 🟢 🇪🇸 Manufacturing PMI - 09:15 🔴 🇬🇧 Manufacturing PMI - 10:30 🟠 🇺🇸 Average Hourly Earnings - 13:30 🔴 🇺🇸 Nonfarm Payrolls - 13: 30 🔴 🇺🇸 Unemployment Rate - 13: 30 🔴 🇺🇸 ISM Manufacturing PMI - 15: 00 🟠 🇺🇸 S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI - 15: 45

Let's break down the most important ones:

🇬🇧 Manufacturing PMI - 10:30

Previous MoM reading (51.3)

MoM Forecast (50.3)

PMI (Purchasing Managers Index) is a business activity index, which is one of the key indicators of a country's economic health. The PMI is calculated based on surveys of purchasing managers who assess the current conditions and outlook for their businesses. These surveys cover aspects such as output, new orders, inventories of goods, employment and shipments. A PMI above 50 indicates economic growth and expansion of business activity (currency appreciation). If the index is above 48 for an extended period of time, it may also indicate that the economy is still growing, albeit at a lower intensity. A reading below 48 indicates a contraction in business activity.

PMI Manufacturing - measures business activity in the manufacturing sector. It is derived from surveys of representatives of manufacturing companies that measure parameters such as output, new orders, employment and inventories. PMI Manufacturing is an important indicator of the health of the manufacturing industry, which plays a key role in the economy, especially in countries with developed industrial sectors.

🇺🇸 Nonfarm Payrolls - 1:30 p.m.

Previous MoM reading (254K)

MoM Forecast (140K)

Nonfarm Payrolls is a key economic indicator that measures the change in the number of people employed in the economy during the previous month, excluding agricultural workers. This indicator is published monthly by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and is one of the most closely watched indicators of labor market conditions.

Nonfarm Payrolls covers almost all sectors of the economy, except agriculture, which makes it an important indicator for assessing the overall state of employment in the country. This indicator includes workers in manufacturing, services, health care, construction, retail trade, and other industries. The exclusion of the agricultural sector is due to its seasonal nature and susceptibility to weather conditions, which can distort the overall employment picture.

The growth in employment indicates the creation of new jobs, which is a positive signal for the economy. Increased employment boosts consumer spending because people with jobs have income and tend to spend money on goods and services. Since consumer spending is a large part of economic activity, job creation directly affects overall economic growth.

A decline in the number of people employed, on the other hand, can indicate slower economic growth and lower consumer activity, which is a concern for economists and analysts. Therefore, the Nonfarm Payrolls indicator is important for forecasting further trends in the economy and making monetary policy decisions.

🇺🇸 Unemployment Rate - 1:30 p.m.

Previous MoM (4.1%)

MoM Forecast (4.1%)

The UnemploymentRate is an indicator that shows the percentage of people who are unemployed to the total labor force. This indicator plays an important role in assessing the state of the economy, as the unemployment rate directly affects the welfare of the population and the economic stability of the country.

To accurately calculate the unemployment rate, it is necessary to determine who exactly is in the labor force. The labor force includes all people who either have a job or are actively looking for one, i.e. the unemployed. Those who are neither working nor looking for work, such as students, retirees, or housewives, are not considered part of the labor force and are not included in the calculation of the unemployment rate.

A higher unemployment rate may indicate problems in the economy, such as low demand for labor or structural changes.

🇺🇸 ISM Manufacturing PMI - 15:00

Previous MoM (47.2)

MoM Forecast (47.6)

PMI (Purchasing Managers Index) is a business activity index, which is one of the key indicators of a country's economic health. The PMI is calculated based on surveys of purchasing managers who assess the current conditions and outlook for their businesses. These surveys cover aspects such as output, new orders, inventories of goods, employment and shipments. A PMI above 50 indicates economic growth and expansion of business activity (currency appreciation). If the index is above 48 for an extended period of time, it may also indicate that the economy is still growing, albeit at a lower intensity. A reading below 48 indicates a contraction in business activity.

PMI Manufacturing - measures business activity in the manufacturing sector. It is derived from surveys of representatives of manufacturing companies that measure parameters such as output, new orders, employment and inventories. PMI Manufacturing is an important indicator of the health of the manufacturing industry, which plays a key role in the economy, especially in countries with developed industrial sectors.

🇺🇸 S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI - 3:45 p.m.

Previous MoM reading (47.3)

MoM Forecast (47.8)

PMI (Purchasing Managers Index) is a business activity index, which is one of the key indicators of a country's economic health. The PMI is calculated based on surveys of purchasing managers who assess the current conditions and outlook for their businesses. These surveys cover aspects such as output, new orders, inventories of goods, employment and shipments. A PMI above 50 indicates economic growth and expansion of business activity (currency appreciation). If the index is above 48 for an extended period of time, it may also indicate that the economy is still growing, albeit at a lower intensity. A reading below 48 indicates a contraction in business activity.

PMI Manufacturing - measures business activity in the manufacturing sector. It is derived from surveys of representatives of manufacturing companies that measure parameters such as output, new orders, employment and inventories. PMI Manufacturing is an important indicator of the health of the manufacturing industry, which plays a key role in the economy, especially in countries with developed industrial sectors.

🌍 CFTC Report - 8:30 p.m.

TheCommitment of Traders (COT) Report is an important weekly report that provides detailed information on the aggregate futures positions of various categories of market participants on U.S. exchanges. It is published every Friday at 22:30 GMT+3 by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). This report serves as a snapshot of the market, showing the distribution of positions between large institutional investors, commercial participants and retail traders. This analysis helps you as traders and analysts to understand market sentiment, identify possible trends and predict future price movements based on how different groups of market participants allocate their positions.

Crypto

BTC

Monthly

https://www.tradingview.com/x/Nxu0wqHr/

The monthly candle looks great for bitcoin holders, so it's important for us to keep the month above the past high, at least above 62650.

Weekly

https://www.tradingview.com/x/gW9unxCB/

For me the ideal plan would be a dip into the 62k zone, at the November open, would see the final market unloading there.

Daily

https://www.tradingview.com/x/EJ2UR7y0/

The situation here is similar, the market dump for altcoins did not give any reaction for bitcoin, so the correction at the November open should give the final impetus.

ETH

Monthly

https://www.tradingview.com/x/utN4ghrT/

The month is neutral, no strength or weakness, so the salvation for ether will be an upward momentum and closing the month above 2800 or a test of 2100-1900 and then a jump to 3675.

Weekly

https://www.tradingview.com/x/fMIN2L2w/

There are many variations here, I will leave only this screenshot.

ETHBTC

Monthly

https://www.tradingview.com/x/OXm4jZsX/

Wait for the toggle switch to turn on.

FX & Stock market

DXY

Weekly

https://www.tradingview.com/x/LEFEicUg/

The DXY Index continued its uptrend and is most likely heading towards the upper boundary of the global consolidation (105.8). Given the data coming out this week, in particular Advance GDP q/q, Core PCE Price Index m/m and Non-Farm Employment Change, it is difficult to make a plan, so we advise to just stick with the current uptrend until it is broken.

Daily

https://www.tradingview.com/x/GkVg9zSs/

There is a high probability to see consolidation between the marked levels of BSL and SSL. If the uptrend continues - the first trouble zone is FVG SIBI at 105.3, and the main target is High of Global Range at 105.8.

EURUSD

Weekly

https://www.tradingview.com/x/KpKnjGXc/

EURUSD reached 50% of global consolidation and also removed the internal SSL. We assume the price transition to the phase of local consolidation between GAP/VI and FVG SIBI zones.

Daily

https://www.tradingview.com/x/uOH6uOjC/

Based on the chart, the first movement should be towards FVG SIBI zone with PWH removal, which will form Range High, and then the price will move towards Gap/VI, forming Range Low.

GBPUSD

Weekly

https://www.tradingview.com/x/b5ysLgcs/

GBPUSD has reached one of the key zones of interest in the form of the FVG BISI, and has also formed an SMT divergence with the EURUSD chart. From a chart perspective, the correct decision would be to consider an upward narrative for the coming weeks towards the BPR zone, on a test of the Global Range High, but fundamentals could completely change this narrative.

Daily

https://www.tradingview.com/x/3XXxYgXu/

Price action should be watched closely until Wednesday, before the release of major US economic data. If SSL is removed, there is a possibility of an upside move to the BSL + Global Range High zone.

SP500

Daily

https://www.tradingview.com/x/Cr3LKSkr/

The SP500 plan from last week has fully worked out, the price has really started to consolidate and at the moment the movement looks downward. It still makes sense to expect a test of Global Range High.

H4

https://www.tradingview.com/x/6w86b8eZ/

Under the release of US economic data a lot can change. At the moment we expect SSL removal with a test of Range Low, or Global Range High, from where the price may turn upward to Range High.

NQ100

Daily

https://www.tradingview.com/x/GalfEMQe/

The NQ100 index is again forming a downward discordance with the SP500 index, while the global discordance remains. At the moment NQ100 has formed a local consolidation, the target of which may be Range Low.

H4

https://www.tradingview.com/x/d8AT5Zyb/

At the moment NQ100 is only developing 4-hour descending OF and in this case the level of 20,200 can be a problem zone for further decline to Range Low. In case the level of 20,200 is broken, the index value is likely to go down to Range Low, 19,800.