Weekly plan - 03.06 - 07.06.2024
Macro
Next week will see the release of data on the state of the manufacturing and services sectors, the US labor market, and the ECB's rate meeting.
We advise to pay attention to the events that cause uncertainty in the price movement:
Wednesday - ADP Non-Farm Employment Change.
Thursday - Main Refinancing Rate, Monetary Policy Statement, ECB Press Conference.
Friday - Average Hourly Earnings m/m, Non-Farm Employment Change, Unemployment Rate.
Monday
USD (US Dollar) / Final Manufacturing PMI - 4:45 pm
Final Manufacturing PMI.
S&P releases revised data on the preliminary index released at the beginning of the month.
The latest actual reading (50.0) came in slightly above the forecast (49.9).
The current market forecast is 50.9.
USD (US Dollar) / ISM Manufacturing PMI - 17:00
Index of business activity in the manufacturing sector.
TheInstitute for Supply Management (ISM) conducts a monthly survey of purchasing managers. Managers are asked to respond to questions related to current inventories in company warehouses, the number of new replenishment requests, new orders and their prices, as well as employment, production utilization and current business conditions.
Manufacturing is one of the basic elements of any economy and is at the very beginning of the chain of creating goods that are then consumed by people. Since every manufacturer is a professional in their industry, they actively monitor market demand and understand the current market trend.
If a manufacturer sees a deteriorating market situation, it makes no sense for them to load production capacity, invest in new facilities and hiring, and purchase new raw materials. A large number of related very important elements of the economy, such as the labor market, consumption, construction and many others, suffer.
The latest actual reading (49.2) was below the forecast (50.0).
The current market forecast is 49.8.
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You can read more here.
Tuesday
USD (US Dollar) / JOLTS Job Openings - 17:00
Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS).
TheUS Federal Bureau of Statistics releases monthly statistics on the number of job openings in the labor market. The number has a time lag of 35 days because collecting such a large amount of data is quite difficult. The data is collected as part of the JOLTS program - Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey.
The number of job openings is an important indicator of the health of the economy. When the economy grows, new companies open and existing companies expand. To support this expansion, workers are needed. To recruit them, companies post job openings.
If we see a positive change in the number of job openings, it means that the economy is actively growing and needs new workers.
If we see a negative change in the number of job openings, it means that the economy is either stagnating or beginning to shrink.
As part of the fight against inflation, the Fed is trying to put the brakes on the economy. One of the most important factors affecting inflation is people's consumption. The safer people feel about their current situation, the more they consume. This causes a huge cascading effect throughout the economy. If people no longer feel safe, they start to consume less and the economy along the chain starts to actively slow down.
The main factor in people's security is employment and the ability to get a paycheck. Even though the labor market is quite stable, the decrease in the number of applications is the first step to worsen this condition. Companies can't hire new people, the next step could be layoffs
The number of vacancies has been constantly falling for six months already, which indicates that the development of enterprises is slowing down and they are switching to the economy mode, as well as restoring the balance between supply and demand on the labor market.
The latest release of this indicator (8.49 million) was less than the forecasted value (8.68 million). High lending rates will continue to weigh on this indicator as demand for new labor is steadily declining.
The current market forecast is 8.40 million.
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More details can be found here.
Wednesday
USD (US Dollar) / ADP Non-Farm Employment Change - 3:15 pm
Important data that has a serious impact on the volatility of the price movement!
Non-Farm Employment Change, excluding the agricultural sector and the government.
ADP Research Institute publishes monthly statistics on changes in the labor market based on the data received during the month.
The indicator is based on an automated analysis of payroll data for more than 25 million workers. The indicator is released earlier than official government data. Since the ADP indicator is released earlier, it has a greater impact on the market.
Employment is one of the most important macroeconomic indicators, as it allows earning money used for consumption. If a person has been laid off from work, he/she is no longer active and is more likely to apply for unemployment to receive benefits. This is additional pressure on the budget.
Since the Fed's main task at the moment is to cool down the economy, the employment rate is used as one of the main indicators when making decisions on raising/lowering the refinancing rates, as well as the duration of keeping the rate in a certain range of values.
Employment growth indicates activity in the economy. New companies are opening, people are getting jobs, getting paid and spending their paychecks. Companies pay taxes and order raw materials and services for their operations. This affects a very long chain of intermediaries.
A decline in employment indicates stagnation, or a decline in the economy. Companies are closing down, or going into austerity mode. People are being laid off from their jobs because of cost optimization. They cannot be active participants in the economy and many elements of the economy suffer.
Hiring has been slowing down since the summer. The latest release of the indicator (192 thousand) was higher than the forecasted value (179 thousand).
The current market forecast is 175 thousand.
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You can read more here.
USD (US Dollar) / ISM Services PMI - 17:00
Services Business Activity Index.
TheInstitute for Supply Management (ISM) conducts a monthly survey among purchasing managers. Managers are asked to answer questions related to new orders and their prices, factory employment, workload and current business conditions.
The service sector is the most important sector of the U.S. GDP, accounting for about 80% of the total GDP. Companies are keenly aware of market conditions and make business development plans on that basis.
If a company sees the economy deteriorating, it makes no sense for it to actively plan for growth. The service sector is very much tied to the income of the population. If people will buy food and clothes anyway, they will most likely postpone going on vacation or subscribing to a new resource.
Since the service sector is not so strongly tied to serious capital investments, it is less tied to the growth of prices for any raw materials. The service sector has the greatest impact on the current strength of the labor market.
The latest release of the indicator (49.4) was below the forecast (52.0).
The current market forecast is 51.0.
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More details can be found here.
Thursday
EUR (Euro) / Main Refinancing Rate - 15:15
Important data that has a serious impact on the volatility of the price movement!
Main Refinancing Rate in the Eurozone (ECB).
TheECB is voting on future actions with the refinancing rate. The six members of the ECB's Executive Board and 15 of the 19 euro area central bank governors vote on how to set the rate.
The refinancing rate is the most important parameter affecting liquidity in the financial system. Depending on the size of the lending rate, the lending rates for companies and consumers depend on it.
Banks can borrow funds from the central bank at the current lending rate. In order to make money, they charge their interest and lend to companies and consumers. The higher the rate, the more interest the companies and consumers have to pay on the loan.
The refinancing rate is the most important tool to fight inflation. Without exotic influences (logistical collapse under Covid-19 and supply chain disruptions), inflation rises from increasing consumer demand. Companies start producing more and more to meet demand, while prices also rise. As companies start ordering more and more raw materials to produce, raw material prices also increase. A spiral of constantly rising prices is created.
Similar to a fire, you have to reduce the oxygen supply and the fire will start to shrink. The more expensive it becomes to get money, the less people start buying goods, the less businesses produce and the less the cost of raw materials increases.
The ECB states that inflation is at an acceptable level and the lending rate needs to be lowered.
The current market forecast is 4.25%.
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You can read more here.
EUR (Euro) / Monetary Policy Statement - 15:15
Important data that has a serious impact on the volatility of the price movement!
ECB Monetary Policy Statement.
In the statement the ECB describes the current state of the economy, the ECB's forecasts for the economic situation and monetary policy.
USD (US Dollar) / Unemployment Claims - 15:30
Unemployment Claims.
US Department of Labor publishes weekly claims data. The indicator is based on citizens who applied for unemployment benefits for the first time in the last week.
The indicator is very important because it shows the strength/weakness of the labor market. If people are employed, they earn wages and consume services and goods. This can influence the rise in consumer inflation.
At the moment, the Fed is actively fighting inflation. A strong labor market indicates to the central bank that the economy is holding up and the current inflation situation will continue.
The more jobless claims, the better for the Fed's actions. The fewer jobless claims, the worse for the Fed's actions - they have to raise the rate even more.
The latest release of the rate (219K) was higher than forecast (218K). The labor market remains stable. For this reason, there is no particular increase in unemployment.
The current market forecast is 215 thousand.
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You can read more here.
EUR (Euro) / ECB Press Conference - 15:45
An important event that has a serious impact on the volatility of the price movement!
Press conference of the ECB President and Vice President.
ECB President Christine Lagarde will answer the questions of economists and journalists during the press conference after the announcement of the monetary policy decision.
Anexample of such a speech.
Friday
USD (US Dollar) / Average Hourly Earnings m/m - 15:30
Important data that has a major impact on the volatility of the price movement!
Average Hourly Earnings (excluding agricultural industry).
TheU.S. Federal Bureau of Statistics publishes monthly statistics on wage changes based on the data received for the month
Wage growth is one of the most important factors affecting inflation. The more money people receive, the more they can spend. At the same time, businesses and service companies raise prices to compensate for wage increases. This has an even greater impact on inflation.
As long as consumer activity remains at the same level, businesses and service providers will not experience difficulties and this indicator will remain close to the forecasted values.
The latest release of the indicator (0.2%) was below the forecast (0.3%).
The current market forecast is 0.3%.
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You can read more here.
USD (US Dollar) / Non-Farm Employment Change - 15:30
Important data that has a serious impact on the volatility of the price movement!
Non-Farm Employment Change.
TheU.S. Federal Bureau of Statistics publishes monthly statistics on changes in the labor market based on monthly data.
Employment is one of the most important macroeconomic indicators, as it allows earning money used for consumption. If a person is laid off from a job, they are no longer active and are more likely to file for unemployment in order to receive benefits. This is additional pressure on the budget.
Since the Fed's main task at the moment is to cool down the economy, the employment rate is used as one of the main indicators when making decisions on raising/lowering the refinancing rates, as well as the duration of keeping the rate in a certain range of values.
Employment growth indicates activity in the economy. New companies are opening, people are getting jobs, getting paid and spending their paychecks. Companies pay taxes and order raw materials and services for their operations. This affects a very long chain of intermediaries.
A decline in employment indicates stagnation, or a decline in the economy. Companies are closing down, or going into austerity mode. People are being laid off from their jobs because of cost optimization. They cannot be active participants in the economy and a large number of elements of the economy suffer.
The latest actual figure (175 thousand) was below the forecast (238 thousand).
The current market forecast is 185 thousand.
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You can read more here.
USD (US Dollar) / Unemployment Rate - 15:30
Important data that has a serious impact on the volatility of the price movement!
Unemployment Rate.
TheU.S. Federal Bureau of Statistics publishes monthly statistics on changes in the labor market based on monthly data. The percentage of the total labor force that is unemployed and actively looking for work during the previous month.
A broader parameter of employment discussed above. Used as a general indicator to analyze current labor market conditions.
The labor market is currently quite stable and although the manufacturing sector is under pressure and the services sector is likely to start its decline, these are lagging factors that will play out a little later. Only after that it will be possible to see the impact on employment.
The latest actual figure (3.9%) was higher than forecast (3.8%).
The current market forecast is 3.9%.
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You can read more here.
Crypto
BTC/USDT
Monthly
https://www.tradingview.com/x/mfpKF2Jp/
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The month closed quite well, closing above 64899.00. The price also left compression in the form of monthly highs, which makes the capture of this area quite promising and possibly without bright corrections before the test.
Weekly
https://www.tradingview.com/x/qUMcJBu9/
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One of the ideal scenarios for me is to capture last week's low and then go to 760000. Of course we can do this without a correction, but opening positions it would have a working risk in it, but only an undervalued one.
Daily
https://www.tradingview.com/x/mEyFjG2t/
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For the daily period I will look at only 2 scenarios and both on a pullback, as the percentage expansion of the price does not have a wide amplitude and accumulates only in a narrow range, which does not give bright clues to the price. We can try to focus on the priority of the bullish closing of the daily timeframe, unless of course we absorb the last 3-4 candles with a pump. Until that happens - I'm waiting for a rollback.
4Н
https://www.tradingview.com/x/czLN5u9r/
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There are 2 colors of highlighted candles on the chart: red and blue. The red ones are the weekend and the blue ones are Monday.
Based on the history of accumulation, what we have going on is that weekends affect the week in two ways: accumulation or manipulation. If at the end of the weekend we can go down and test 65000, it will be a bullish move, but if we start to go up, the opening of Monday and Tuesday can play a cruel trick on us in the form of a rough plunge to 65000 and possibly lower, but the chart will show that.
Dominance
https://www.tradingview.com/x/mspeWvR9/
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Here the situation does not change globally.
ETH/USDT
Monthly
https://www.tradingview.com/x/jwvDJOW9/
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This is a very bullish scenario, we need to look for every correction here as an opportunity to go to ATH.
Weekly
https://www.tradingview.com/x/gNjAYeJj/
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Definitely we will have a correction into this wide imbalance and I intend to catch trades in the 3581-3290 zone if the market gives the opportunity with a target at 5000.
Daily
https://www.tradingview.com/x/aj7Hi8Yq/
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There are different situations in life, this is where I look at the most unreasonable scenario and will just place safe-limit orders there.
Regarding the first two: 1 format- for a daily period format here the situation is perfect, as we had a wick work with a daily imb and a format on a pullback lower - not narrated, but the structure of the day got a sweep, and the 4H format got a takeover there after the break, which makes our road map. Total willingness to crash on such trades, so here I will take the risk to catch the most uncomfortable option.
2 format - as soon as we get a foothold above 4000, there is a great chance that the price will start to fly out from under our feet and will not give an opportunity to enter, but if we remove these thoughts and remember that the market always gives entry, we can wait for a clean correction to 4000 and continue the trend to ATH.
ETH/BTC
Weekly
https://www.tradingview.com/x/MumLIVoO/
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Everyone waited? A price fix soon above 0.06117 and Satoshi will give us a boost and replenish your balances.
FX & Stock market
DXY
Weekly
https://www.tradingview.com/x/fh0Vk3zI/
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For the last 2 weeks DXY index has been sideways inside the Balanced range, but failed to show upward momentum to the target in the form of External BSL. The latest PCE and CORE Pce data came out neutral to downward for the DXY index, so in the short term we expect a move lower towards the Gap zone we mentioned last week. The current week is full of news on the US labor market, in particular the Non-Pharm and Unemployment Rate on Friday will be the key ones, so the price will obviously try to come to a significant liquidity zone. However, it is important to consider that we are not out of the Balanced zone yet, and there is a valid SMT with EURUSD and GBPUSD. It is worth being careful and relying on intraday timeframes.
H4
https://www.tradingview.com/x/wgJveIpC/
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Presumably we are looking at a capture of Friday's high and a move lower to invalidate the current SMT.
EURUSD
Weekly
https://www.tradingview.com/x/Zay9Urft/
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A more or less clear narrative has formed on the EURUSD chart. Last week overlapped ineffectiveness in the form of FVG BISI, so it is optimal to consider an upward movement to the area of the upper boundary of consolidation - 1.0930.
Daily
https://www.tradingview.com/x/CKInsifg/
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On the daily timeframe we observe price squeezing between two zones of interest: Internal BSL + SMT DXY and FVG BISI. It is also worth noting how the price worked with the key psychological level of 1.0800, last Thursday. From the technical analysis point of view, the right decision would be to build an upward narrative for the coming week, but from the fundamental data point of view, there are doubts. On Thursday there will be the ECB meeting on the future monetary policy of the Eurozone, in particular the decision on the rate will be made, where the market expects a 0.25 basis points cut. If a rate cut decision is made, it could have a big impact on the upward narrative and we are likely to see a reversal.
H4
https://www.tradingview.com/x/F959l7Yc/
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From a medium-term perspective, EURUSD looks long to the Internal BSL level of 1.0900. Further narratives will depend on the ECB decision and US labor market data.
GBPUSD
Daily
https://www.tradingview.com/x/mc8QBLrE/
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For the last two weeks GBPUSD has been out of correlation with EURUSD, so there is no point in considering the SMT, which is formed on both sides. At the moment GBPUSD after testing the upper boundary of the global consolidation and the key psychological level of 1.2800, moved into a small internal consolidation, where it tested the upper boundary on Friday, so it is optimal to consider shorting, perhaps we will see a weak compression inside the consolidation, until the EURUSD will formalize the manipulation of the Internal BSL, and then the charts will synchronize to the downside against the background of the ECB rate. So far, EURUSD and GBPUSD have different narratives, which tells us about the low probability condition of the market as a whole.
H4
https://www.tradingview.com/x/0Kqrq7BW/
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We assume downward movement from current values or after the removal of Friday's high, where then the price will turn to the lower boundary of consolidation with a potential test of 1.2635.
SP500
Weekly
https://www.tradingview.com/x/9UWAIJ5R/
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The SP500 stock index after ATH update returned to the FVG BISI zone as expected last week, where it reacted with upward momentum on Friday on the back of neutral-bullish PCE data. If the current week shows positive labor market data, we should expect a new ATH (External BSL update).
Daily
https://www.tradingview.com/x/EZiXs3vP/
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From a daily chart perspective, the Internal SSL was removed on Friday, which formed an SMT with the NQ100. Overall, there is no doubt about the upward movement and we will work on the buy side.
NQ100
Daily
https://www.tradingview.com/x/hjRBw1qY/
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The situation on the Nasdaq 100 is identical, the index overlapped the FVG BISI, while not consolidating below its 50%, which is positive to the upside. At the same time SMT with SP500 was formed on Friday. We assume an upward movement to External BSL.
However, be careful with the upper boundary of global consolidation on both indices, a downward reaction when this level is tested will handicap the upward narratives.
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