Weekly-Plan 02.10 - 06.10. A detailed overview of all markets from the CRYPTOLOGY.KEY team

Macro news of the week and its impact

Next week, the most important news and indicators will be related to the US dollar. Manufacturing and services sentiment as well as the labor market are very important to understand the current inflation situation.

Monday:

USD (US Dollar) / ISM Manufacturing PMI - 17:00.

Index of business activity in the manufacturing sector.

TheInstitute for Supply Management (ISM) conducts a monthly survey of purchasing managers. Managers are asked to respond to questions related to current inventories in company warehouses, the number of new replenishment requests, new orders and their prices, as well as employment, production utilization and current business conditions.

Manufacturing is one of the basic elements of any economy and is at the very beginning of the chain of creating goods that are then consumed by people. Since every manufacturer is a professional in their industry, they actively monitor market demand and understand the current market trend.

If a manufacturer sees a deteriorating market situation, it makes no sense for them to load production capacity, invest in new facilities and hiring, and purchase new raw materials. This affects a large number of related very important elements of the economy, such as labor market, consumption, construction and many others.

Currently, the manufacturing sector has been in recession for 10 months. It is all to blame for very high refinancing rates and falling demand, which is also subject to high rates. The further they raise/hold rates, the more the manufacturing sector will stagnate, affecting the economy as a whole. This is what the Fed has been trying to accomplish, but the market is not as quick to react to these actions and the current challenge is not to push even harder while killing manufacturing.

The latest release of this indicator (47.6) was the first time in a long time that it showed a positive trend relative to forecasts (46.9). The construction sector played a big part in this growth, which, thanks to good discounts, is supporting the creation of new housing in spite of expensive mortgages. However, construction capital expenditures are rising, demand is falling and this could reduce production orders, which would negatively impact the ISM PMI going forward.

The current market forecast is 47.8.

The value may be lower for the reasons described above - 47.5-47.6.
 

More details can be found here.

USD (US Dollar) / Fed Chair Powell Speaks - 18:00

Fed Chair Jerome Powell speaks at an event with educators.

One of the most important news of the week, as the Fed Chairman has the biggest influence on the financial markets. Powell's speech can indicate the Fed's future actions.

Anexample of such a speech is a conversation with teachers.

Last week, Jerome Powell's speech was held where a "soft landing" for the economy was heavily discussed. However, indicators suggest that economic growth is slowing, inflation and high refinancing rates are putting a lot of pressure on consumer and business activity. This indicates that the Fed's stance may be too positive. The new week's figures could provide further clarity on the possibility of a soft landing.

This is why Powell's speeches are very important, as he can touch on these issues and point out thoughts on the matter.

Tuesday:

USD (U.S. Dollar) / JOLTS Job Openings - 5:00 p.m.

Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS).

TheU.S. Federal Bureau of Statistics releases monthly statistics on the number of job openings in the labor market. The number has a time lag of 35 days because collecting such a large amount of data is quite difficult. The data is collected as part of the JOLTS program - Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey.

The number of job openings is an important indicator of the health of the economy. When the economy grows, new companies open and existing companies expand. To support this expansion, workers are needed. To recruit them, companies post job openings.

If we see a positive change in the number of job openings, it means that the economy is actively growing and needs new workers. If we see a negative change in the number of job openings, it means that the economy is either stagnating or beginning to shrink.

As part of the fight against inflation, the Fed is trying to put the brakes on the economy. One of the most important factors affecting inflation is people's consumption. The safer people feel about their current situation, the more they consume. This causes a huge cascading effect throughout the economy. If people no longer feel safe, they start to consume less and the economy along the chain starts to actively slow down.

The main factor of people's security is employment and the possibility to receive a salary. Even though the labor market is quite stable, the decrease in the number of applications is the first step to worsen this condition. Companies cannot hire new people, the next step could be layoffs

The number of vacancies has been falling steadily for six months already, which indicates that the development of enterprises is slowing down and they are switching to austerity mode.

The latest release of this indicator (8.83 million) was once again more negative than the forecasted values (9.49 million). High refinancing rates will continue to weigh on this indicator as demand for new labor is steadily declining.

The current market forecast is 8.85 mln.
 

More details can be found here.

Wednesday:

USD (US Dollar) / ADP Non-Farm Employment Change - 3:15 pm.

Non-Farm Employment Change.

TheADP National Employment Report (NER) releases monthly data on the change in employment in the economy. The indicator is based on the payrolls of 25 million citizens working for half a million companies.

While the number of new job openings shows the willingness of companies to hire new workers, the change in the employment rate shows the current state of the labor market.

When a company stops hiring new staff, it does not mean that it is laying off old staff. The number of new job openings shows a more general trend in the health of companies, but the change in employment rate shows the current state of the company.

When there is a positive change in the employment rate, we can judge that people are actively hiring - this shows that the economy is growing.

If the employment rate is negative, we can see that people are actively being laid off, which indicates a declining economy or poor economic conditions.

For several months this indicator was higher than forecasted, but in August there was a drop and the actual value (177 thousand) was lower than forecasted (194 thousand). The labor market has been fairly stable for a long time, but there are increasing indications of increasing weakness.

Companies are beginning to experience difficulties, as evidenced by the decline in business activity.

The current market forecast is 155k.

You can read more here.

USD (US Dollar) / ISM Services PMI - 17:00

Services Business Activity Index.

TheInstitute for Supply Management (ISM) conducts a monthly survey among purchasing managers. Managers are asked to answer questions related to new orders and their prices, factory employment, workload and current business conditions.

The service sector is the most important sector of the U.S. GDP, accounting for about 80% of the total GDP. Companies are keenly aware of market conditions and make business development plans on that basis.

If a company sees the economy deteriorating, it makes no sense for it to make active plans for growth. The service sector is very much tied to the income of the population. If people will buy food and clothes anyway, they will most likely postpone going on vacation or subscribing to a new resource.

Since the service sector is not so strongly tied to serious capital investments, it is less tied to the growth of prices for any raw materials. The index has been growing for 6 months due to the growing demand for services. At the same time, the services sector has the greatest impact on the current strength of the labor market.

The fact that people's savings are at a low and credit card debt is at a high suggests that the demand for services is short-term and may soon decline sharply. Along with this, service prices are starting to rise, another additional pressure on the service sector.

The latest release of the indicator (54.5) was higher than forecast (52.5). However, the factors described above point to a decline in the indicator in the future.

The current market forecast is 53.5.

More details can be found here.

Thursday:

USD (US Dollar) / Unemployment Claims - 3:30 pm.

Unemployment Claims.

TheU.S. Department of Labor releases weekly claims data. The indicator is based on the citizens who applied for unemployment benefits for the first time in the last week.

The indicator is very important because it shows the strength/weakness of the labor market. If people are employed, they earn wages and consume services and goods. This can influence the rise in consumer inflation.

At the moment, the Fed is actively fighting inflation. A strong labor market indicates to the central bank that the economy is holding up and the current inflation situation will continue.

The more jobless claims, the better for the Fed's actions. The fewer jobless claims, the worse for the Fed's actions - they have to raise rates even more.

The latest release of the figure (204K) was lower than projected (214K). The labor market remains stable, although it is slowing down. Therefore, there is no particular negative impact on the increase in unemployment.

The current market forecast is 210 thousand.

You can read more here.

Friday:

USD (U.S. Dollar) / Average Hourly Earnings m/m - 3:30 pm.

Average Hourly Earnings (excluding agricultural industry).

TheU.S. Federal Bureau of Statistics publishes monthly statistics on changes in wages and salaries based on the monthly data received

Wage growth is one of the most important factors affecting inflation. The more money people receive, the more they can spend. At the same time, businesses and service companies raise prices to compensate for wage increases. This has an even greater impact on inflation.

As long as consumer activity remains at the same level, businesses and service providers will not experience difficulties and this indicator will remain close to the forecasted values.

The latest release of the indicator (0.2%) was below the forecast (0.3%).

The current market forecast is 0.3%.

You can read more here.

USD (US Dollar) / Non-Farm Employment Change - 15:30

Non-Farm Employment Change.

TheUS Federal Bureau of Statistics publishes monthly statistics on changes in the labor market based on monthly data.

Employment is one of the most important macroeconomic indicators, as it allows earning money used for consumption. If a person is laid off from a job, they are no longer active and are more likely to file for unemployment in order to receive benefits. This is additional pressure on the budget.

Since the Fed's main task at the moment is to cool down the economy, the employment rate is used as one of the main indicators when making decisions on raising/lowering the refinancing rates, as well as the duration of keeping the rate in a certain range of values.

Employment growth indicates activity in the economy. New companies are opening, people are getting jobs, getting paid and spending their paychecks. Companies pay taxes and order raw materials and services for their operations. This affects a very long chain of intermediaries.

A decline in employment indicates stagnation, or a decline in the economy. Companies are closing down, or going into austerity mode. People are being laid off from their jobs because of cost optimization. They cannot be active participants in the economy and a large number of elements of the economy suffer.

Employment in the economy was growing strongly until early summer, but has been slowing throughout the summer. As noted above, the service sector was very much affected. Due to problems in the manufacturing sector, slowing growth in the service sector, and creating a balance between supply and demand in the labor market, the indicator will begin to slow down.

The latest release of 187K was higher than the forecast (169K), but this figure is much lower than, for example, the June figure (339K).

The current market forecast is 168 thousand.

Most likely the indicator will be even lower - 155-160 thousand.
 

You can read more here.

USD (US Dollar) / Unemployment Rate - 15:30

Unemployment Rate.

TheUS Federal Bureau of Statistics publishes monthly statistics on changes in the labor market based on monthly data. The percentage of the total labor force that is unemployed and actively looking for work during the previous month.

A broader parameter of employment discussed above. Used as a general indicator to analyze current labor market conditions.

As noted above, the labor market is currently quite stable and although the manufacturing sector is under pressure, and the services sector is likely to start its decline - these are lagging factors that will play out a little later. Only then will we see the impact on employment.

The last release of the indicator (3.8%) was higher than forecast (3.5%). This is exactly what was described above. Factor in the worsening economic situation slowly but slowly starting to take its toll.

The current market forecast is 3.7%.
 

You can read more here.

Forex Overview

DXY

Monthly:

https://www.tradingview.com/x/qz8jeYc9/

Price was delivered to the monthly FVG (SIBI) zone, specifically to its quarter level (0.25). In doing so, a key pool of liquidity in the form of the current yearly high has been removed.

From a premium/discount perspective we are in a premium zone, in particular we have a key quarter zone (0.25) which is at the institutional price level of 108.00, plus the 0.5 zone of our monthly FVG (SIBI) is also at 108.00. This is a strong resistance zone for the price at which we can expect a good downside reaction or a full-blown reversal.

One of the key targets to reach after the reversal will be the level of Yearly Open at the price level of 103.5.

An additional factor for considering a full-fledged quarterly reversal is the situation with price accumulation and going beyond its limits (deviation). Considering the chart from this point of view - the key target for the price will be the zone 0.5, which in turn intersects with the level of Yearly Open - 103.5.

https://www.tradingview.com/x/ABV8PNpF/

Let's not forget about bond yields, in particular the key 10-year yields (US10Y). At the current moment in time, they are at their 2007-2008 peaks (global crisis). Here we see a strong discordance between DXY values and yields, which have already gone beyond the 2022 high, which only confirms the possibility of a reversal of the dollar index.

https://www.tradingview.com/x/t1bpF1eI/

Weekly / Daily

https://www.tradingview.com/x/LH0CLXPL/

The weekly timeframe does not provide us with much information, but based on the situation on the monthly timeframe, and based on the review of news events of the current week, we can emphasize that a potential reversal may occur in the current week. We have two variants of events development:

1. The growth to the key price level of 108.00, followed by a sharp reversal on Wednesday or Friday.
2. Beginning of the downward movement from the current levels with targets to the zone of the annual opening 103.5.

https://www.tradingview.com/x/JellLGfB/

The price fixing inside the zone of the monthly FVG in the form of a pin-bar on Friday indicates that the first variant of events development has a higher probability of working out than the second one.

The week is quite active on news events, which indicates increased volatility. We would advise waiting for PWH/PWL to work before considering any context to build your trade.

EURUSD

Monthly

https://www.tradingview.com/x/w8ghfZlw/

Unlike DXY - the Euro did not reach the FVG zone (BISI) and did not even take out the yearly low, which tells us about a potential downside scenario for the current week,

Weekly / Daily

https://www.tradingview.com/x/vjomJYPC/

Since last week's analysis there have been no major changes on these timeframes. The price removed the first liquidity pool, but we have a one-year low under it. We expect to reach it.

https://www.tradingview.com/x/PJbIbsrE/

Tuesday is a day off in Germany, which will affect the volatility, but on Wednesday morning and evening there will be a speech of ECB President Christine Lagarde. We do not exclude the fact that it is on Wednesday that the main manipulation of the yearly low may take place.

GBPUSD

Weekly / Daily

https://www.tradingview.com/x/kBHE6LKi/

The pound reached the key zones of interest from the weekly timeframe in the form of the FVG+VI zone, in particular the 0.5 level of this zone, where it got a good enough reaction. Also, we have an ascorrelation with DXY and EURUSD, which tells us that the Pound is late, and therefore its potential strength. The EURGBP chart also tells us this:

https://www.tradingview.com/x/7vNuxrml/

The decline in EURGBP confirms the strength of the Pound compared to the Euro, and given the fact that there are no news events on the Pound this week - we can conclude that the price is likely to consolidate for 2-3 days, while the Euro will make a downward capture of the annual minimum, where then by the second half of the week we can expect a joint growth in both assets.

https://www.tradingview.com/x/bSdoNkAK/

SP500

Weekly

https://www.tradingview.com/x/iPQx19aI/

The price reached one of the key zones of interest in the form of weekly Volume Imbalance, as well as a quarter of the discount zone (0.75), which is a rather strong support level.

Daily

https://www.tradingview.com/x/SRtq0EZY/

The situation on the daily timeframe is ambiguous. The price is clamped in consolidation between two zones of interest in the form of weekly Volume Imbalance and Sell-Side FVG (SIBI). Based on a fairly good price reaction to the Volume Imbalance zone, we would expect an upward move to remove the PWH, but we have an FTA zone in the form of the daily FVG.

H4

https://www.tradingview.com/x/HWFkA74c/

Now the price is inside the weekly VI zone, we got a rather sharp reaction last Wednesday, with a change of delivery priority (Shift), but based on the reaction to the FTA OB, plus the discordance in the form of SMT with the Nasdaq100 index, we can conclude that so far the S&P500 index is not seeking an upward movement. The only thing to hold on to is the open Sell-Side FVG (SIBI).

We should wait for more information on the chart. Much will depend on the news events on the Dollar and the DXY movement.

Nasdaq 100

Daily

https://www.tradingview.com/x/SApOjji2/

From last week's analysis - the price reached the key weekly zones of Buy-Side FVG and Volume Imbalance, where it got a good enough reaction on Wednesday, but did not consolidate inside the FVG. However, on the other hand - we reached the opposite zone of interest in the form of Sell-Side FVG (SIBI), where we also got a strong reaction in the downward direction.

H4

https://www.tradingview.com/x/Xe1TmAnN/

While testing the daily Sell-Side FVG (SIBI) zone, the Nasdaq100 index formed an SMT with the S&P500 index, which gives us a hint of a possible downside scenario. However, do not use the SMT as the main factor to analyze. When we tested the Sell-Side FVG zone (SIBI), we also got a rather sharp reaction in the downside where we created an OB. But at the same time we created Buy-Side FVG (BISI) below. The most likely scenario is a continuation of the downtrend, with a possible move higher to the OB.

Ogryad Crypto

BTC/USDT

1M BTC

A new monthly candle was opened today, last month's close gives us an understanding that this month will most likely be green. We were able to work off the August low and close in positive territory, however, we need to be careful, price has formed equals with the June low, this will be an important level for price to aim for in the future.

https://www.tradingview.com/x/RrhxWsfU/

1W BTC

Regarding the weekly chart, the price for the plan follows the high of one of the weekly candles of August, on a row to 28600, after which it is a priority to look for a short position. Once we get this area filled, I plan to cover all my spot, futures positions.

https://www.tradingview.com/x/9o13emvA/

1D BTC.

As for the first targets of the daily chart, they are identical. In those moments when price starts a move format that I call "parabolic rounding", where traders start looking for small pullbacks or full-blown shorts, to test local areas of imbalances and FTAs, in such moments price makes an abnormal meat grinder of shorts, in the coming week we will find out how much liquidations will grow. Since you have been warned in past reviews, all that remains is to watch.

https://www.tradingview.com/x/0AgdzAzC/

4H BTC.

We can't know the exact price movement as we are trading probabilities, which is why, even after the imbalance is completely filled, we may well give a pullback into the nearest FTA, then go higher to our target.

https://www.tradingview.com/x/6IQmyNAS/

BTC.D & USDT.D & INDICIES

The continuation of the dominance correction will last until BTC takes off the important level discussed above, after that I will wait for the dominance strength to emerge and start looking for short positions.

Regarding the current decline of theser domination, we can see how altcoins react to it, once BTC, BTC.D will fillet all my targets and USDT.D will make a grab of 7.59.

https://www.tradingview.com/x/vX3FMOFQ/

Unlike other sectors, the LAYER 1 market has the highest inflows for the current 7 days, as evidenced by the market volumes that overtook digital assets(BTC, XRP,LTC,BCH) trading at $9.75B for the week, while digital traded at $9.5B. You can keep an eye on this sector at Monday's open.

https://www.tradingview.com/x/emlW3yzS/

ETH/USDT

ETH 1M

The monthly bar close came out very nice, having worked with the August low, the first target is to cap the monthly imbalance.

https://www.tradingview.com/x/picQtFWe/

ETH 1W.

Behind the monthly imbalance, there is a similar situation as on BTC, the weekly swing of August. I think it will not become an obstacle and can be removed for a test of 0.5 range.

https://www.tradingview.com/x/fbS63jlT/

ETH 1D

However, what is happening here tells us weakness, because as soon as price enters the daily level imbalance, immediately gets weakness which is displayed on the wicks of the daily timeframe, we have a chance to get a plum after the test of 1700, without capturing the monthly imbalance which is a structural swing.

https://www.tradingview.com/x/CkHAUYsK/

ETH 4H.

Here the situation is more like a correction, once we get back to the 1668 zone, I would look for arguments to open a position to capture the 0.5 FTA range.

https://www.tradingview.com/x/sCFKCG5o/

ETH/BTC

ETH/BTC 1M

Here we see price fiercely holding the level, keeping the price down, once again confirming the phrase "don't touch it, it's on the bullrun"

https://www.tradingview.com/x/1TK0wJRE/

ETH 1W

I will wait for a pullback and another liquidity build before testing the RTO area, before going down, but for now, alta feels easy.

https://www.tradingview.com/x/8PQFgDPI/

Bonus ALTS

RUNEUSDT

ALT 1W.

Weekly volume and a takeover of last week's bar, could do something terrible, I want to see a takeover for starters.

https://www.tradingview.com/x/UPQ3z62b/

ALT 1D

One of the few altcoins I am watching for long positions, the volume and its structure has been consolidating under the 2.090 level for 43 days, I am waiting for a return to imbalance and looking for volume with a long price action to find a position to take over the equals.

https://www.tradingview.com/x/jqKZf1Zm/