Weekly plan - 30.09 - 04.10.2024
Weekly plan | Macro 29.09
The week promises to be rich in important economic news. Taking into account possible discrepancies between actual and forecasted indicators, we recommend to refrain from open positions due to the unpredictability of the situation. The key events to watch out for are the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in the Eurozone, Business Activity Index (PMI) in the US and US employment data.
Monday
🇬🇧 GDP - 09:00 🇩🇪 Import Prices Index - 09:00 🇩🇪 Retail Sales - 09:00 🇬🇧 M3, M4 Supply - 11:30 🇩🇪 CPI - 15:00 🇺🇸 Dallas Fed PCE - 16:00 🇺🇸 Chicago PMI - 16:45 🇺🇸 Dallas Fed Mfg Business Index - 17:30 🇺🇸 Powell - 20:00 🇺🇸 3m-6m T-bills Auction - 18:30
Let's break down the most important ones:
🇬🇧 GDP - 09:00
Previous figure (0.6%) Forecast (0.6%)
Gross Domestic Product is a key economic indicator that measures the annual change in the value of all goods and services produced domestically. It is important to note that GDP takes into account inflation, that is, changes in the price level of goods and services. This allows us to measure the real growth of the economy, not just the increase in value due to rising prices.
GDP is the broadest and most comprehensive measure of economic activity, as it includes all sectors of the economy: industry, agriculture, services, construction and others. Because of this, GDP is used as the primary indicator of the health of the economy. When GDP is rising, it indicates that the economy is growing, production is increasing, and people are getting richer on average. Conversely, a decline in GDP can indicate a slowdown in economic activity or even the beginning of a recession.
It is published monthly. There are three versions of GDP released at one-month intervals - preliminary, second publication and final.
🇩🇪 CPI - 15:00
Previous MoM (-0.1%) YoY (1.9%)
Forecast MoM (0.1%) YoY (1.7%)
TheConsumer Price Index (CPI) is one of the key economic indicators widely used to gauge the inflation rate of a country. This index is calculated based on a careful measurement of changes in the prices of a wide range of goods and services that are included in the so-called "consumer basket". In the structure of the CPI, approximately 2/3 of the basket consists of services and 1/3 of goods. This distribution reflects current trends in developed economies, where the service sector plays an increasingly important role.
Core CPI, orcore CPI, is a modified version of the standard CPI. The key difference of Core CPI is that two important components are excluded from its calculation: food and energy. Using Core CPI along with the standard CPI gives a more complete picture of inflationary processes. While the CPI reflects changes in the general price level, including short-term fluctuations, the Core CPI allows assessing underlying inflationary trends that are less susceptible to temporary factors.
Regular monitoring of these indicators allows the Central Bank to assess the effectiveness of monetary policy, forecast economic trends and make informed decisions in the field of economic regulation.
How does the price dynamics play out? The growth of values will be an incentive for tightening monetary policy and the corresponding strengthening of the currency, and vice versa.
Tuesday
🇪🇺 Flash CPI - 12:00 🇪🇺 Flash Core CPI - 12:00 🇩🇪 5y Bobl Auction - 12:30 🇺🇸 S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI - 4:45 p.m. 🇺🇸 ISM Manufacturing PMI - 17:00 🇺🇸 JOLTs Job Openings - 17:00 🇬🇧Пілл - 17:00 🇺🇸 Dallas Fed Services Revenues - 17:30 🇺🇸 Bostic - 18:00 🇺🇸 Cook - 18:10 🇺🇸 Atlanta FED GDPnow (q3) - 19:00
Let's break down the most important ones:
🇪🇺 Flash CPI - 12:00
Previous MoM (0.1%) YoY (2.8%)
Forecast MoM (-0.3%) YoY (2.8%) 🇪🇺 Flash Core CPI - 12:00 PM
Previous MoM (0.3%) YoY (2.2%)
Forecast MoM (N/A%) YoY (1.8%) 🇩🇪 5y Bobl Auction - 12:30 p.m.
The yield on auctioned government bonds reflects the return an investor will receive by holding the bond to maturity. Governments issue these obligations to cover budget deficits and refinance debt. The average yield at auction is important for assessing the health of the economy and the level of confidence in the government.
Fluctuations in yields can indicate changes in the economy and investor expectations. If yields are rising from previous auctions, it may indicate a decline in confidence or expectations of rising interest rates and a strengthening currency. 🇺🇸 S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI - 4:45 p.m.
Previous reading (47.9) Forecast (47)
PMI (Purchasing Managers Index) - is a business activity index, which is one of the key indicators of a country's economic condition. The PMI is calculated based on surveys of purchasing managers who assess the current conditions and outlook for their businesses. These surveys cover aspects such as output, new orders, inventories of goods, employment and shipments. A PMI above 50 indicates economic growth and expansion of business activity (currency appreciation). If the index is above 48 for an extended period of time, it may also indicate that the economy is still growing, albeit at a lower intensity. A reading below 48 indicates a contraction in business activity.
PMI Manufacturing - measures business activity in the manufacturing sector. It is derived from surveys of representatives of manufacturing companies that measure parameters such as output, new orders, employment and inventories. PMI Manufacturing is an important indicator of the health of the manufacturing industry, which plays a key role in the economy, especially in countries with developed industrial sectors.
PMI Services - reflects business activity in the services sector. It is based on surveys of companies operating in service industries such as transportation, communications, finance, health care and education. This index provides an indication of the status and outlook for the services sector, which accounts for a significant portion of GDP in most advanced economies. 🇺🇸 ISM Manufacturing PMI - 17:00
Previous reading (47.2) Forecast (48.3)
🇺🇸 JOLTs Job Openings - 17:00
Previous Indicator (7.673M) Forecast (7.65M)
The survey, conducted by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, helps measure job openings. It collects data from employers about employment at their facilities, job openings, recruitment, hiring and layoffs.
JOLTS (Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey) definesjob openings as all positions that remain open (unfilled) on the last business day of the month. A vacancy is considered "open" only if it meets all three of the following conditions:
- A specific position exists and there is work available for that position.
- The job can begin within 30 days, regardless of whether the business finds a suitable candidate within that period.
- There is an active search for workers outside the location of the business where the vacancy exists.
An indicator that turns out to be higher than projected is usually supportive (strengthening) for the U.S. dollar, while an indicator that is lower than projected is usually negative (weakening) for the U.S. dollar. 🇺🇸 Atlanta FED GDPnow (q3) - 7:00 p.m.
GDPNow is not an official forecast from the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. It should be viewed as a current estimate of real GDP growth based on available economic data for the current measured quarter. GDPNow does not include subjective adjustments - the estimate is based solely on the mathematical results of the model. In particular, it does not take into account the effects of COVID-19 and social mobility beyond their impact on the raw GDP data and related economic reports that have already been published. GDPNow also does not predict their impact on future economic reports beyond the standard internal dynamics of the model.
Wednesday
🇺🇸 Bostic - 01:15 🇪🇺 Unemployment Rate - 12:00 🇩🇪 10y T-Bund Auction - 12:30 🇺🇸 MBA Purchase Index - 14:00 🇩🇪 Baltz - 14:45 🇺🇸 ADP Non-Farm Employment Change - 15:15 🇬🇧Пілл- 17:00 🇺🇸 Bowman - 18:00 🇺🇸 Barkin - 18:30
Let's break down the most important ones:
🇪🇺 Unemployment Rate - 12:00 pm
Previous Rate (6.4%) Forecast (6.5%)
TheUnemployment Rate is an indicator that shows the percentage of people who are unemployed to the total labor force. This indicator plays an important role in assessing the state of the economy, as the unemployment rate directly affects the welfare of the population and the economic stability of the country.
To accurately calculate the unemployment rate, it is necessary to determine who exactly is in the labor force. The labor force includes all people who either have a job or are actively looking for one, i.e. the unemployed. Those who are neither working nor looking for work, such as students, retirees, or housewives, are not considered part of the labor force and are not included in the calculation of the unemployment rate.
A higher unemployment rate may indicate problems in the economy, such as low demand for labor or structural changes.
🇩🇪 10y T-Bund Auction - 12:30 p.m.
The yield on auctioned government bonds reflects the return an investor will receive by holding the bond until it matures. Governments issue these obligations to cover budget deficits and refinance debt. The average yield at auction is important for assessing the health of the economy and the level of confidence in the government.
Fluctuations in yields can indicate changes in the economy and investor expectations. If yields are rising compared to previous auctions, it may indicate a decline in confidence or expectations of rising interest rates and a stronger currency.
🇺🇸 ADP Non-Farm Employment Change - 3:15 p.m.
Previous figure (99K) Forecast (90K)
Nonfarm Payrolls is a key economic indicator that measures the change in the number of people employed in the economy during the previous month, excluding agricultural workers. This indicator is published monthly by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and is one of the most closely watched indicators of labor market conditions.
Nonfarm Payrolls covers almost all sectors of the economy, except agriculture, which makes it an important indicator for assessing the overall state of employment in the country. This indicator includes workers in manufacturing, services, health care, construction, retail trade, and other industries. The exclusion of the agricultural sector is due to its seasonal nature and susceptibility to weather conditions, which can distort the overall employment picture.
The growth in employment indicates the creation of new jobs, which is a positive signal for the economy. Increased employment boosts consumer spending because people with jobs have income and tend to spend money on goods and services. Since consumer spending is a large part of economic activity, job creation directly affects overall economic growth.
A decline in the number of people employed, on the other hand, can indicate slower economic growth and lower consumer activity, which is a concern for economists and analysts. Therefore, the Nonfarm Payrolls indicator is important for forecasting further trends in the economy and making monetary policy decisions.
Thursday
🇪🇺 Services PMI - 11:00 🇬🇧 Services PMI - 11:30 🇪🇺 PPI - 12:00 🇺🇸 Challenger Job Cuts - 14:30 🇺🇸 Unemployment Claims - 15:30 🇺🇸 S&P Global US Services PMI - 16:45 🇺🇸 ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI - 17:00 🇺🇸 Factory Orders - 17:00 🇺🇸 FEDʼs Balance Sheet - 23:30 🇺🇸 Reserve Balances with FED - 23:30
Let's break down the most important ones:
🇪🇺 Services PMI - 10:55
Previous (51.2) Forecast (50.6)
🇬🇧 Services PMI - 11:30
Previous (52.9) Forecast (50.5)
🇪🇺 PPI - 12:00
Previous MoM (0.8%) YoY (-2.1%)
Forecast MoM (0.3%) YoY (-2.5%)
PPI (Producer Price Index) - Pro ducer Price Index, reflects changes in the prices of goods and services from the point of view of their producers and sellers. This index covers a wide range of industries, including raw materials, materials and intermediate products. PPI has a lagged effect on measures of consumer inflation because changes in the prices of raw materials and intermediate goods are not immediately reflected in prices for final consumers. For example, an increase in metal prices may not immediately affect the price of a car at a car dealership, but over time this increased cost may be passed on to the consumer. It is important to note that PPI takes into account not only goods but also services, making it a comprehensive measure of price changes throughout the economy. This provides a more complete picture of economic processes and potential inflationary pressures.
How does the PPI score on price dynamics? A rise in values will be an incentive to tighten monetary policy and the corresponding strengthening of the currency. 🇺🇸 Unemployment Claims - 15:30
Previous (218K) Forecast (220K)
Initial Jobless Claims (IJC), or UnemploymentClaims, is a weekly report published by the U.S. Department of Labor. This report records the number of Initial Jobless Claims filed during the previous week. The IJC report gives an idea of how many people first applied for unemployment assistance, which can indicate possible changes in the labor market. For example, a surge in applications may indicate the beginning of economic difficulties, such as a decline in business activity or a wave of layoffs. Conversely, a decline in applications is often interpreted as a sign that the labor market is improving and employment is rising.
This indicator is also a leading indicator of the economic cycle, as it allows us to gauge the current state of the economy before more comprehensive data such as employment or GDP reports are released. However, it is worth noting that Initial Jobless Claims may be subject to significant revisions, as the data may be adjusted in subsequent reports based on more complete information.
In addition, this indicator is sometimes subject to manipulation, especially during periods of economic uncertainty. This may be due to temporary factors such as seasonal fluctuations or government programs that may distort the data in the short term.
A decline in the indicators may indicate a possible rise in inflation, which, in turn, will lead to a tightening of monetary policy and strengthening of the currency. 🇺🇸 S&P Global US Services PMI - 4:45 p.m.
Previous reading (55.7) Forecast (55.4) 🇺🇸 ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI - 17:00
Previous reading (51.5) Forecast (51.3)
PMI (Purchasing Managers Index) is a business activity index, which is one of the key indicators of a country's economic health. The PMI is calculated based on surveys of purchasing managers who assess the current conditions and outlook for their businesses. These surveys cover aspects such as output, new orders, inventories of goods, employment and shipments. A PMI above 50 indicates economic growth and expansion of business activity (currency appreciation). If the index is above 48 for an extended period of time, it may also indicate that the economy is still growing, albeit at a lower intensity. A reading below 48 indicates a contraction in business activity.
PMI Manufacturing - measures business activity in the manufacturing sector. It is derived from surveys of representatives of manufacturing companies that measure parameters such as output, new orders, employment and inventories. PMI Manufacturing is an important indicator of the health of the manufacturing industry, which plays a key role in the economy, especially in countries with developed industrial sectors.
PMI Services - reflects business activity in the services sector. It is based on surveys of companies operating in service industries such as transportation, communications, finance, health care and education. This index provides an indication of the state and outlook for the services sector, which in most advanced economies accounts for a significant portion of GDP.
Friday
🇪🇺 Construction PMI - 10:30 🇬🇧 Construction PMI - 11:30 🇺🇸 Average Hourly Earnings - 15:30 🇺🇸 Nonfarm Payrolls - 15:30 🇺🇸 Unemployment Rate - 15:30 🇺🇸 Williams - 16:00 🌍 CFTC Report - 22:30
Let's break down the most important ones:
🇺🇸 Nonfarm Payrolls - 15:30
Previous (142K) Forecast (130K)
Nonfarm Payrolls is a key economic indicator that measures the change in the number of people employed in the economy during the previous month, excluding those employed in the agricultural sector. This indicator is published monthly by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and is one of the most closely watched indicators of labor market conditions.
Nonfarm Payrolls covers almost all sectors of the economy, except agriculture, which makes it an important indicator for assessing the overall state of employment in the country. This indicator includes workers in manufacturing, services, health care, construction, retail trade, and other industries. The exclusion of the agricultural sector is due to its seasonal nature and susceptibility to weather conditions, which can distort the overall employment picture.
The growth in employment indicates the creation of new jobs, which is a positive signal for the economy. Increased employment boosts consumer spending because people with jobs have income and tend to spend money on goods and services. Since consumer spending is a large part of economic activity, job creation directly affects overall economic growth.
A decline in the number of people employed, on the other hand, can indicate slower economic growth and lower consumer activity, which is a concern for economists and analysts. Therefore, the Nonfarm Payrolls indicator is important for forecasting further trends in the economy and making monetary policy decisions. 🇺🇸 Unemployment Rate - 15:30
Previous Rate (4.2%) Forecast (4.3%)
TheUnemployment Rate is a measure that shows the percentage of people who are unemployed to the total labor force. This indicator plays an important role in assessing the state of the economy, as the unemployment rate directly affects the welfare of the population and the economic stability of the country.
To accurately calculate the unemployment rate, it is necessary to determine who exactly is in the labor force. The labor force includes all people who either have a job or are actively looking for one, i.e. the unemployed. Those who are neither working nor looking for work, such as students, retirees, or housewives, are not considered part of the labor force and are not included in the calculation of the unemployment rate.
A higher unemployment rate may indicate problems in the economy, such as low demand for labor or structural changes. 🌍 CFTC Report - 10:30 pm.
Commitment of Traders (COT) Report - is an important weekly report that provides detailed information on the aggregate futures positions of various categories of market participants on US exchanges. It is published every Friday at 22:30 GMT+3 by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). This report serves as a snapshot of the market, showing the distribution of positions between large institutional investors, commercial participants and retail traders. This analysis helps you as traders and analysts to understand market sentiment, identify possible trends and predict future price movements based on how different groups of market participants allocate their positions.
Crypto
BTC/USDT
Monthly
https://www.tradingview.com/x/5hF2eY6P/
We are waiting for the total takeover and start the party, which will last the first half of October, where all those who open long positions on the background of a bullish monthly candle will be liquidated and the price will stop around 62-58k. The ideal scenario would be a move to 56k.
Weekly
https://www.tradingview.com/x/yCZXX4pj/
As soon as we close the weekly candle above 65k - it will be a preparation for a deep market plunge, so stock up on popcorn, nerves of steel and wait.
Daily
https://www.tradingview.com/x/ukwOSWMb/
To trade short positions - we need to look at POIs for entry and aim for levels below, to look for long positions, only work with levels.
Dominance
Expect at least 5.90-6% on dominance https://www.tradingview.com/x/TuvsIBrS/
ETH/USDT
Monthly
https://www.tradingview.com/x/XxVxP1ff/
We have no key levels, so this close should only push us to October strength, keep the close above 2814 and that's it. Any downward correction in October will be a pullback all the way down to 2116.
Weekly
https://www.tradingview.com/x/cWHmUAkw/
For strength - we only need a weekly candle close above 2814 and that's it, but timing shows this is less realizable, so we prepare for a retracement event all the way down to 2116.
Daily
https://www.tradingview.com/x/rKbcNPk9/
Here I am only considering this scenario before the correction.
ETH/BTC
Weekly
https://www.tradingview.com/x/EG4liri8/
Judging by the chart, the ether may be shaken very badly.
ALTS
Let's go short and clear on altcoins, there will be a light squeeze.
BOME
https://www.tradingview.com/x/76h2MEQb/
Looking forward to continuing the series with PEPE.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/HoNWcy39/
Looking forward to a continuation of the punchline from PEPE.
Renewed vigor to the SOL ecosystem.
APT
https://www.tradingview.com/x/VoXwaI4G/
SOL
https://www.tradingview.com/x/6LRJ45Xk/
Exiting the accumulation of SOL.
FX & Stock market
DXY
Daily
https://www.tradingview.com/x/EddKOHaX/
There are no changes in the DXY index. It continues to be at the lower boundary of the global consolidation, forming a compression movement. The plan remains unchanged - upward movement from Range Low to Range High, with a potential test of the 100 level.
EURUSD
Daily
https://www.tradingview.com/x/JA4wkxcb/
This is the sixth week when EURUSD fails to break the 50% price gap zone of 2022 (Gap). Last week took out BSL with a consolidation below, which may suggest a move towards SSL, into the 1.1000 range. There is no change on the plan.
GBPUSD
Daily
https://www.tradingview.com/x/MVfwkG9a/
The plans from last week are unchanged. We assume GBPUSD reversal to the downside, after closing the price gap of 2022 (Gap), where the main target will be 1.3140 and 1.3000 (SSL).
SP500 / NQ100
Daily
https://www.tradingview.com/x/u9TWdUcn/
The plans from last week are unchanged. On the SP500 index, we assume a downside move to the BPR zone at 5640 as the first target for a correction. The NQ100 index has a strong divergence (SMT) with the SP500, while it tested the key FVG SIBI zone indicated last week, getting a downward reaction on Friday. We anticipate a downside move from current values to the BPR (19500) or SSL (18500) zone.
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