Weekly plan - 21.10 - 25.10.2024

Macro

The week promises to be very volatile, with a lot of fundamental news. Special attention should be paid to Thursday and Friday. Thursday will see the release of second quarter GDP data and US labor market indicators. Friday will see the release of the PCE index, which plays a key role for the FOMC in the context of monetary policy. It is also worth paying attention to Monday, when data on business activity in the Eurozone, the UK and the US will be released, which may form a narrative for the future development of economies and exchange rates.

Monday

🇪🇺 HCOB Eurozone PMI (Sep) - 11:00 a.m.

🇬🇧 S&P Global/CIPS UK PMI (Sep) - 11:30 am

🇺🇸 FOMC Member Bostic Speaks - 15:00

🇺🇸 S&P Global US PMI (Sep) - 16:45

🇺🇸 3-6 Month Bill Auction - 18:30

🇺🇸 FOMC Member Kashkari Speaks - 8:00 p.m.

Let's take a look at the most important ones:

🇪🇺 HCOB Eurozone PMI (Sep) - 11:00 a.m.

Previous Manufacturing (45.8); Services (52.9)

Forecast Manufacturing (45.6) ; Services (52.4)

Services

Manufacturing

PMI (Purchasing Managers Index) is a business activity index, which is one of the key indicators of a country's economic health. The PMI is calculated based on surveys of purchasing managers who assess the current conditions and outlook for their businesses. These surveys cover aspects such as output, new orders, inventories of goods, employment and shipments. A PMI above 50 indicates economic growth and expansion of business activity (currency appreciation). If the index is above 48 for an extended period of time, it may also indicate that the economy is still growing, albeit at a lower intensity. A reading below 48 indicates a contraction in business activity.

PMI Manufacturing - measures business activity in the manufacturing sector. It is derived from surveys of representatives of manufacturing companies that measure parameters such as output, new orders, employment and inventories. PMI Manufacturing is an important indicator of the health of the manufacturing industry, which plays a key role in the economy, especially in countries with developed industrial sectors.

PMI Services - reflects business activity in the services sector. It is based on surveys of companies operating in service industries such as transportation, communications, finance, health care and education. This index provides an indication of the status and outlook for the services sector, which accounts for a significant portion of GDP in most developed economies.

🇬🇧 S&P Global/CIPS UK PMI (Sep) - 11:30 a.m.

Previous Manufacturing (52.5) ; Services (53.7)

Forecast Manufacturing (n/a) ; Services (n/a)

Services

Manufacturing

🇺🇸 S&P Global US PMI (Sep) - 4:45 p.m.

Previous Manufacturing (47.9); Services (55.7)

Forecast Manufacturing (48.5) ; Services (55.2)

Services

Manufacturing

The S&P numbers have less influence and are not considered as accurate as those from the ISM.

🇺🇸 3-6 Month Bill Auction - 6:30 p.m.

3 Month

6 Month

The yield on auctioned government bonds reflects the return an investor will receive by holding the bond to maturity. Governments issue these obligations to cover budget deficits and refinance debt. The average yield at auction is important for assessing the health of the economy and the level of confidence in the government.

Fluctuations in yields can indicate changes in the economy and investor expectations. If yields are rising compared to previous auctions, it may indicate a decline in confidence or expectations of rising interest rates and currency appreciation.

Tuesday

🇺🇸 S&P/CS HPI Composite - 20 n.s.a. (Jul) - 4:00 p.m.

🇺🇸 CB Consumer Confidence (Sep) - 5:00 p.m.

🇺🇸 2-Year Note Auction - 8:00 p.m.

🇺🇸 API Weekly Crude Oil Stock - 23:30

Let's take a look at the most important ones:

🇺🇸 CB Consumer Confidence (Sep) - 17:00

Previous reading (103.3)

Forecast (102.9)

The Consumer Confidence Index, which is calculated by an organization called the Conference Board (CB), is an important tool for gauging consumer sentiment about economic conditions. This index shows how confident people are about the sustainability of the economy and their financial capabilities. A high level of consumer confidence usually indicates that people are willing to spend money on purchases, which in turn stimulates economic growth. Since consumer spending accounts for a significant portion of gross domestic product (GDP), consumer confidence is an important leading indicator to predict future economic trends.

When the index shows high values, it means that consumers perceive economic stability and are willing to actively participate in purchases, investments and other economic activities. This creates favorable conditions for businesses, which can count on increased demand for their goods and services. On the other hand, low consumer confidence can signal that people are worried about their financial future and tend to postpone large purchases or savings, which can slow economic growth. Thus, changes in the consumer confidence index can provide insight into consumer sentiment and expectations for the future, making it an important tool for economic analysis and decision-making by investors and policymakers.

🇺🇸 2-Year Note Auction - 8:00 p.m.

Wednesday

🇪🇺 ECB Non-monetary Policy Meeting - 10:00 a.m.

🇺🇸 Building Permits (Aug) - 3:30 p.m.

🇺🇸 New Home Sales (Aug) - 17:00

🇺🇸 Crude Oil Inventories - 17:30

🇺🇸 5-Year Note Auction - 8:00 p.m.

Let's take a look at the most important ones:

🇺🇸 5-Year Note Auction - 8:00 p.m.

Thursday

🇪🇺 ECB Economic Bulletin - 11:00 a.m.

🇺🇸 Initial Jobless Claims - 15:30

🇺🇸 Continuing Jobless Claims - 15:30

🇺🇸 Core PCE Prices (Q2) - 15:30

🇺🇸 Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Aug) - 15:30

🇺🇸 GDP (QoQ) (Q2) - 15:30

🇺🇸 GDP Price Index (QoQ) (Q2) - 15:30

🇺🇸 Fed Chair Powell Speaks - 16:20

🇺🇸 7-Year Note Auction - 8:00 p.m.

Let's take a look at the most important ones:

🇺🇸 Initial Jobless Claims - 3:30 p.m.

Previous (219K)

Forecast (n/a)

Initial Jobless Claims (IJC), orInitial Jobless Claims, is a weekly report published by the U.S. Department of Labor (Labor Department). This report records the number of Initial Jobless Claims filed during the previous week. The IJC report gives an idea of how many people first applied for unemployment assistance, which can indicate possible changes in the labor market. For example, a surge in applications may indicate the beginning of economic difficulties, such as a decline in business activity or a wave of layoffs. Conversely, a decline in applications is often interpreted as a sign that the labor market is improving and employment is rising.

This indicator is also a leading indicator of the economic cycle, as it allows us to gauge the current state of the economy before more comprehensive data such as employment or GDP reports are released. However, it is worth noting that Initial Jobless Claims may be subject to significant revisions, as the data may be adjusted in subsequent reports based on more complete information.

In addition, this indicator is sometimes subject to manipulation, especially during periods of economic uncertainty. This may be due to temporary factors such as seasonal fluctuations or government programs that may distort data in the short term.

A decline in the figures could indicate a possible rise in inflation, which in turn would lead to tighter monetary policy and a stronger currency.

🇺🇸 GDP (QoQ) (Q2) - 15:30

Previous QoQ (1.4%)

Forecast QoQ (3.0%)

Gross Domestic Product is a key economic indicator that measures the annual change in the value of all goods and services produced domestically. It is important to note that GDP takes into account inflation, that is, changes in the price level of goods and services. This allows us to measure the real growth of the economy, not just the increase in value due to rising prices.

GDP is the broadest and most comprehensive measure of economic activity, as it includes all sectors of the economy: industry, agriculture, services, construction and others. Because of this, GDP is used as the primary indicator of the health of the economy. When GDP is rising, it indicates that the economy is growing, production is increasing, and people are getting richer on average. Conversely, a decline in GDP can indicate a slowdown in economic activity or even the beginning of a recession.

It is published monthly. There are three versions of GDP released at one-month intervals - preliminary, second publication and final.

🇺🇸 GDP Price Index (QoQ) (Q2) - 15:30

Previous QoQ (3.1%)

Forecast QoQ (2.5%)

TheGDP Price Index is a key economic indicator that measures the rate of inflation based on changes in the prices of goods and services produced in the United States. This index reflects how the prices of domestically created products change, and it is used to estimate the overall inflation rate in the economy. It is important to note that the index only covers goods and services that are produced in the United States and exported abroad. Prices of goods and services imported into the country are not included in this index. This means that the GDP price index provides an indication of how prices are changing within the country, but does not take into account external factors, such as the cost of imported goods, which can also affect the inflation rate in the economy. This indicator is widely used to analyze economic stability and understand price dynamics over the long term.

How does wagering on price dynamics play out? Like any other indicator of inflation dynamics. A rise in values will be an incentive to tighten monetary policy and the corresponding strengthening of the currency, and vice versa.

🇺🇸 Durable Goods Orders (Aug) - 15:30

Previous MoM (9.9%)

MoM Forecast(-2.8%)

Durable Goods Orders is an important economic survey conducted each month by the U.S. Census Bureau. This survey collects data on orders for goods that are designed to last a long time, such as automobiles, appliances, industrial equipment, and other goods that serve for several years.

This survey covers various industries to provide an accurate picture of the current economic activity in the country. Investors and analysts closely follow the results of this survey as it is one of the key indicators of the health of the economy.

Based on the data on durable goods orders, conclusions can be drawn about the demand for products, production levels and the outlook for the industry. An increase in orders can indicate a growing economy, while a decrease can indicate possible problems or a downturn. Thus, this data helps investors make informed decisions about investing in different sectors of the economy.

🇺🇸 7-Year Note Auction - 8:00 p.m.

Friday

🇺🇸 PCE Price Index (Aug) - 3:30 pm

🇺🇸 Core PCE Price Index (Aug) - 3:30 pm

🇺🇸 Personal Spending (MoM) (Aug) - 3:30 p.m.

Let's take a look at the most important ones:

🇺🇸 PCE Price Index (Aug) - 15:30

Previous MoM (0.2% ); YoY (2.5%)

Forecast MoM (0.3%); YoY (0.6%)

MoM

YoY

Another inflation metric that is the most important of all the others, because it is what the Fed looks at when setting the target rate.

ThePCE Price Index, which is published monthly in the Personal Income and Expenditures report, is an important indicator that tracks changes in the prices of goods and services purchased by consumers in the United States. This index takes into account a wide range of goods and services, from food and clothing to health care and electronics, making it a key indicator of inflation. Importantly, in addition to monthly data, PCE price index information is also included in quarterly and annual GDP reports, providing a better understanding of overall trends in the economy and their impact on people's purchasing power. The PCE is one of the tools the Federal Reserve uses to assess inflation risks and make monetary policy decisions.

🇺🇸 Core PCE Price Index (Aug) - 3:30 p.m.

Previous MoM (0.2% ); YoY (2.6%)

Forecast MoM (n/a); YoY (n/a)

MoM

YoY

TheCore PCE Price Index excluding food and energy, also known as theCore PCE Price Index, is published as part of the monthly Personal Income and Expenditures report. The core index makes it easier to determine the underlying trend in inflation by excluding two categories-food and energy-whose prices tend to fluctuate more sharply and more frequently than other goods and services. The Federal Reserve closely monitors the PCE core price index when conducting monetary policy.

The effects on the currency can be two-way: a rise in the PCE can lead to higher interest rates and an appreciation of the national currency; on the other hand, during a recession, a rise in the PCE can lead to a deepening of the recession and thus a depreciation of the national currency.

🗂️ CFTC Report - 22:30

Commitment of Traders (COT) Report - is an important weekly report that provides detailed information on the aggregate futures positions of various categories of market participants on US exchanges. It is published every Friday at 22:30 GMT+3 by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). This report serves as a snapshot of the market, showing the distribution of positions between large institutional investors, commercial participants and retail traders. This analysis helps you as traders and analysts to understand market sentiment, identify possible trends and predict future price movements based on how different groups of market participants allocate their positions.

Crypto

BTC/USDT

Monthly

https://www.tradingview.com/x/pOrrLRVE/

The closing of the monthly candle is almost perfect. We need to hold and close it above the last high of September and then ATH will be even faster.

Weekly

https://www.tradingview.com/x/Gv0BVhqW/

After the weekly close, I would like to get in play on a pan-Spr pullback in order to buy BTC and get it to ATH.

Daily

https://www.tradingview.com/x/lg2kJkN9/

This is the most ideal plan I'd like to see for a refill.

ETH/USDT

Monthly

https://www.tradingview.com/x/WvgADgjf/

Ether closes the monthly candle neutral, so it just needs regular and strong momentum here to manage to close above 2800 and target 3800 there.

Weekly

https://www.tradingview.com/x/5yY538PW/

Objectively working from 2100 is not that keen, so I expect a plan with a weekly candle closing above 2814 for continued upside.

Daily

https://www.tradingview.com/x/IhKa1skY/

Similar here.

ETH/BTC

Weekly

https://www.tradingview.com/x/WW2HaoMk/

Same situation, only I will wait for the momentum as BTC will break ATH and start consolidation, if this chart starts to rise it is a good sign.

FX & Stock market

DXY

Daily

https://www.tradingview.com/x/72F0tKmr/

Last week's close was quite quick to reach the 103.5 (BSL) level, which we noted as a major target. At the current moment we should expect a slight correction, as the week closed below the removed BSL level, which will now act as resistance. We consider the range around 102.0 as support.

EURUSD

Daily

https://www.tradingview.com/x/ZPi2QDnN/

EURUSD continues to move deep into the global consolidation on the background of the rate cut, where, at the moment, it stopped in the FF FVG zone, the main target remains the level of 1.0750 (SSL + 0.5 Range), marked earlier, but it is worth noting the current divergence of EUR with DXY, which may lead to a slight correction. In this case, the marked GAP will be the zone for continuation of the downward movement.

GBPUSD

Daily

https://www.tradingview.com/x/VsC7wrc2/

For GBPUSD there are no changes from last week. We expect a correction to FVG SIBI with a further decline, but so far GBPUSD is holding more confidently than EURUSD.

SP500 / NQ100

Daily

https://www.tradingview.com/x/moYPesVf/

The gains in the SP500 and NQ100 indices slowed last week, with the SP500 reaching -2.5 STDIV projection from where it is getting a reaction. We should expect a week of consolidation with a potential deviation lower to the Global Range High (near the 5780 level). At the same time, NQ100 as said was weaker, both on the general background and intra-week, forming SMT to the downside and not overcoming FVG SIBI. At the same time, a clear local consolidation was formed, with deviation and OB as a zone of the beginning of the downward movement to SSL (19800).