Weekly plan - 16.10 - 20.10.2023
Macro
Financial News Review for the week of 16.10 - 20.10
Next week the most important news and indicators will be related to manufacturing and retail sales, with Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's speech at the end of the week. It will be a quiet week for speculation.
Monday
USD (US Dollar) / Empire State Manufacturing Index - 15:30
New York State Manufacturing Index.
TheFederal Reserve Bank of New York releases the Empire State Manufacturing Index on a monthly basis. The index is based on a survey of manufacturing companies on business conditions, employment, shipments and new orders.
New York State is the fourth largest state in terms of population (20 million) and the third largest in terms of contribution to the nation's GDP ($2.05 trillion). No matter what anyone says about the US being the world's largest consumer (trade deficit of $948.1 billion), manufacturing is still very strong. There are a large number of local brands covering almost all the needs of the citizens.
It is for this reason that manufacturing data is very important and can say a lot about the future dynamics of the economy as a whole. Since the basic element in the production of goods is enterprises, they are the best and fastest to react to changes in economic conditions. For the entire 23rd year, the indicator was most often in the area of strong negativity, with small positive changes. Since the beginning of summer, the dynamics began to improve, the actual indicators were better than predicted.
The current situation with energy prices, high indebtedness of the population and a decline in consumer power may contribute to a wave of new negativity.
The latest release of the actual indicator (1.9) was more positive than forecast (-9.9).
The current market forecast is (-6.4).
More details can be found here.
Tuesday
USD (US Dollar) / Core Retail Sales m/m - 3:30 pm
Core Retail Sales change for the month.
TheU.S. Census Bureau releases monthly data on the change in Core Retail Sales for the month.
To calculate the Core, the data excluding auto sales is taken. Statistically, automobile sales account for about 20% of retail sales. Car prices are constantly changing due to strong demand and therefore create a lot of volatility.
As described in past reviews, economists try to fit any situation to a model. Volatility can create problems for these models, so they remove the volatile component from the calculation.
The retail sales baseline is very important because it is the first in the chain to determine consumer demand.
The more people buy goods, the less they become available in store warehouses. In order to supply the demand, stores start to order more and more goods from enterprises. Enterprises begin to actively purchase raw materials to produce these goods.
If people buy less goods, the stocks in the stores' warehouses remain and there is no point in making a new order to the enterprise. The chain that creates a positive impact on the economy does not work.
With the help of the retail sales indicator a large number of statistics are calculated, on the basis of which further decisions on the work of enterprises and government agencies are made.
At the moment, the main task of the Fed is to reduce inflation as carefully as possible. That's why the declining retail sales figure is a short-term positive sign that the impact is working and they will reach the 2% inflation target in the long run.
The indicator has been positive all summer, mostly above forecast. In the last release, the actual figure (0.6%) was higher than forecast (0.4%).
The current market forecast is 0.2%.
More details can be found here.
USD (US Dollar) / Retail Sales m/m - 15:30
Retail Sales Change for the month.
TheU.S. Census Bureau releases monthly data on the monthly change in Retail Sales.
To calculate the index, the data is taken into account the sales of automobiles. Statistically, automobile sales account for about 20% of retail sales. Car prices are constantly changing due to strong demand and therefore create a lot of volatility.
As described in past reviews, cars are a very important part of American life because the infrastructure is very spread out geographically and the transportation system is not as developed as in Europe.
Underreporting real statistics is not a good thing, but when compared to inflation and core inflation (CPI and Core CPI / PCE and Core PCE), car sales are not as important as rising food and energy prices.
You can not change a car for a long time and still own it. However, the automobile market in the United States runs on credit. Basically, people do not fully own cars, but take it on lease or loan. After a certain period of use, they do not pay off the full loan for the current car change it and reallocate the loan to a new car. For this reason, the global aftermarket is filled with cars from the USA.
The impact on car sales is a decrease in the activity of dealers, manufacturers and banking institutions issuing car loans. The auto industry generates 3% of U.S. GDP and creates actual and indirect jobs for 10 million people.
The indicator has been positive all summer, mostly above forecast. In the last release, the actual rate (0.6%) was higher than forecast (0.1%).
The current market forecast is 0.3%.
You can read more here.
Thursday
USD (US Dollar) / Unemployment Claims - 15:30
Unemployment Claims.
TheU.S. Department of Labor releases weekly claims data. The indicator is based on the citizens who applied for unemployment benefits for the first time in the last week.
The indicator is very important because it shows the strength/weakness of the labor market. If people are employed, they receive wages and consume services/goods. This can influence the rise in consumer inflation.
At the moment, the Fed is actively fighting inflation. A strong labor market indicates to the central bank that the economy is holding up and the current inflation situation will continue.
The more jobless claims, the better for the Fed's actions. The fewer jobless claims, the worse for the Fed's actions - they have to raise the rate even more.
The latest release of the rate (209K) came in just below the forecast (211K). The labor market remains stable, albeit slowing. Therefore, there is no particular negative impact on the increase in unemployment.
The current market forecast is 210 thousand.
You can read more here.
USD (US Dollar) / Fed Chair Powell Speaks - 19:00
Fed Chair Jerome Powell Speaks.
This is one of the most important news of the week, as the Fed Chairman has the biggest influence on the financial markets. Powell's speech may indicate the Fed's future actions.
Anexample of such a speech.
The last two weeks have seen the release of very important data that Powell is very likely to discuss in his speech.
You can read more here.
FX
DXY
Monthly:
https://www.tradingview.com/x/91CuBR0T/
The consolidation of the second week of the month below the September high suggests a possible downside context for the next two weeks. The key price target will be 105.5, which is the monthly FVG (BISI).
Weekly
https://www.tradingview.com/x/SvIsAuNc/
The weekly chart does not allow us to make a clear decision on the context for this week. On the one hand we have the 107.7 level - 50% FVG (SIBI) - intact, and on the other hand last month's high was taken out, which gave a fairly strong reaction in the first week. However, last week hitting the FTA zone of weekly FVG (BISI) leveled out the downward movement and we saw last week as a longing week. This tells us that the DXY index is moving from an uptrend to a possible consolidation.
Daily
https://www.tradingview.com/x/pddaz5O1/
Based on rather short-side forecasts on the news events of the first half of the week, we assume a downward movement from the PMH level (106.8) starting on Monday to the MO + OB level (106.2) with an end on Wednesday or Thursday. The most important day of this week will be Thursday because of J. Powell's speech at 19:00. The most likely scenario is Consolidation Thursday Reversal with the low of the week on Thursday.
H4
https://www.tradingview.com/x/L9a9nk6O/
We advise you to trade this week without relying on the context of the long-term perspective, as algorithms are likely to prepare liquidity before J.Powell's speech. Watch the price reaction to the liquidity levels of the lower timeframes. There is a high probability of consolidation on Wednesday and Thursday, especially during the London session.
US10Y
https://www.tradingview.com/x/AoHpbWTt/
It is important to note the current situation with bond yields. The yields reached the level of 4.85, which we noted in the review for 25.09. It influenced DXY with an upward movement. Now the yields look shorts, moreover last week gave us SMT with DXY. This situation further confirms the downward narrative, but it may start next month.
EURUSD
Monthly
https://www.tradingview.com/x/TslpFdKR/
From last week's analysis, the context of the monthly timeframe only confirmed, the price did not consolidate below the yearly low. The priority remains at 1.068 monthly FVG (SIBI).
Weekly
https://www.tradingview.com/x/7oNsxa3F/
The context of the weekly timeframe is difficult to determine right now. On both sides, price has worked liquidity, with Volume Imbalance forming at 1.055. It is important to note that the 1.05 level itself is a strong "round" number, where price most often moves into liquidity accumulation stages for new impulsive moves. As with DXY the priority for this week is consolidation.
Daily
https://www.tradingview.com/x/QWMpmrSq/
We expect upward liquidity building (preferably in the form of compression) to the MO zone, where on Thursday we may see a reversal in the downward direction with absorption of all built liquidity.
GBPUSD
Weekly
https://www.tradingview.com/x/O7HZ6tCd/
The most clear situation on the British pound. We are between two zones of interest with liquidity removed on both sides. It is the pound that confirms to us the potential consolidations in the other assets. There is no prioritization of direction yet. We should see how price will deal with the current zones of interest.
Daily
https://www.tradingview.com/x/S0C0wICL/
It should be noted how accurately price tested the FTA zone in the form of FVG (SIBI), which was our potential reversal target from last week's analysis. We expect a corrective move to the MO and FVG SIBI zone, followed by a potential reversal to the downside.
SP500
Weekly
https://www.tradingview.com/x/A4hyeugm/
On the weekly timeframe the price is sandwiched between two zones of interest, as well as liquidity withdrawal occurred on both sides, which confirms consolidation. Until the price goes beyond the consolidation levels, it makes no sense to make assumptions.
Daily
https://www.tradingview.com/x/qSzrBamo/
We advise to work on the short term this week, through session interaction. We expect sideways movement with a potential exit in a downward direction to the level of 4270 - 4260.
NQ100
Weekly
https://www.tradingview.com/x/OCfx5tFy/
The situation is identical to SP500, last week it made a Full Fill of the weekly FVG (SIBI), however, it came right back sharply under the 50% zone of this FVG. On the other hand we have several Volume Imbalance zones and a withdrawn SSL.
Daily
https://www.tradingview.com/x/wj0Cp8Yf/
During the full overlap of the weekly FVG (SIBI), price formed a daily OB. Monday will open near the lower boundary of the weekly FVG (SIBI), which could hold price and lead to a test of the OB. On the other hand, the price may immediately start moving in a downward direction (additional scenario). Our expectations are consolidation with a potential exit in the downward direction to the 14800 zone.
Crypto
BTC/USDT
1M BTC
https://www.tradingview.com/x/yEe6KOGb/
If we hold the monthly candle close in this range until the end of the month, we definitely don't have a rise, however, if the price has already worked through all the liquidity and was able to accumulate enough short contracts, there could be a bounce soon.
1W BTC
https://www.tradingview.com/x/wdJyMamI/
Once again I am taking a realist stance and looking at several scenarios:
- Either we buy back the week under the close so that price can close above last week's low.
- We leave the week roughly in that range and the next week is aimed at taking out last week's newly formed low and then going up.
- We catch buyer weakness and the price trades no higher than last week's high, where its decline is aimed down to 25200.
1D BTC
https://www.tradingview.com/x/3Es10dRJ/
On the left side of the chart we can see how the price worked with daily swings that failed to close with a body above or were absorbed after a consolidation - they simply got a global decline, perhaps this is what awaits us, but we are not looking at just one scenario.
I allow any price decline, the main thing is to hold the 26000 level, because if it is lost, it will immediately mean a major decline.
4H BTC
https://www.tradingview.com/x/4iwaY6u1/
Here, either price adopts the rules of the renge or further follows the structure, relative to the direction of the 4H chart. Getting a decline below the leftover equals will have no effect on the upside growth context, because the context is only affected by 26000.
BTC.D
https://www.tradingview.com/x/mVJES5xc/
We got a good close last week. Now I expect to see a local pullback which will give viola a breath of air, unless it is a viola that is already pumped with money, which I will discuss with you below. Otherwise it will be another upward dominance jump and a weak alta will be hurt.
ETH/USDT
ETH 1M
https://www.tradingview.com/x/2GBFvYOz/
Liquidity of the month is off. If a strong buyback in the second half of the month follows then we are on the right track, if it doesn't then the next target is to retest the RB the price is in.
ETH 1W
https://www.tradingview.com/x/1w09KWT3/
Imagine a picture where ETH worked its way to the low of the month, which garnered a huge amount of buyers who were knocked out of their positions.
Now look at the ether domination chart, if we get a sharp descent into these ranges, after that we will be in for a sharp liquidity spillover of money into ether, so the only thing left to do is put up allerts and wait.
ETH 1D
https://www.tradingview.com/x/OzbMzV3S/
Relative to the daily TF, a 3DP has been formed. If we can close the weekly candle above 1550.00, we have a positive, with volume coming into the market to start a correction from the 0.5 range of the ranges we are trading in. If this does not happen, there is a chance that we will get a sharp decline to 1461, it can be on both fud and regular liquidity, which is not so little.
ETH 4H.
As soon as there is a consolidation - so immediately. Until it is not - I will ignore any opportunity on it, but not on alta.
ETH/BTC
ETH 1W
https://www.tradingview.com/x/5X0PnQvn/
This is where I am still, on standby.
Bonus ALTS
BIGTIME
https://www.tradingview.com/x/xTRke3ru/
Here we have no weekly history, only 4H and only a narrow range which is based on huge volumes, relative to the capitalization of the asset. When trading volume is x2-x3 above the capitalization of the asset - it means that money is about to be distributed and that's what I intend to see on this koin.
ALT 1W
STPT 1W
https://www.tradingview.com/x/kjPqgc7H/
Excellent swings and volume on the weekly timeframe, relative to last week's alt. Here I aim to see a sharp rise along with a sharp fall, but most importantly take the swings off.
STPT 4H
https://www.tradingview.com/x/9m3q5IqQ/
We can all see the volume numbers, I think it's worth keeping an eye on, relative to the fact that the major swings have not been taken out.
TOMO
https://www.tradingview.com/x/Qas8Rj45/
Price took off sharply and left the equal. Given that there was only one stick on the m1 chart, it may have been a sharp retracement, but if a player has plans for it, the daily chart could be pushed to an adequate close and continue to hunt for swings.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/i6QAxWW0/
If we have a close above last week's high, then we can show strength next week. Otherwise, we are just in for a fall, as has always happened with TOMO, after impulse shots.
Crypto News
