Weekly plan - 14.10 - 18.10.2024

Macro

The week will not be full of any important news. The only focus is on US retail activity and the ECB rate.

Monday

Bank Holiday - 🇺🇸 🇺🇸 OPEC Monthly Report 🇬🇧 Dhingra (BoE) - 09:30 🇬🇧 Dhingra (BoE) - 11:30 🇩🇪 12m T-Bubill Auction - 12:30 🇺🇸 Michigan 1y Inflation Expectations - 18:00 🇺🇸 Waller (FED) - 22:00

Let's break down the most important ones:

🇩🇪 12m T-Bubill Auction - 12:30 p.m.

The yield on auctioned government bonds reflects the return an investor will receive by holding the bond to maturity. Governments issue these obligations to cover budget deficits and refinance debt. The average yield at auction is important for assessing the health of the economy and the level of confidence in the government.

Fluctuations in yields can indicate changes in the economy and investor expectations. If yields are rising compared to previous auctions, it may indicate a decline in confidence or expectations of rising interest rates and a strengthening currency.

Tuesday

🇺🇸 IEA Monthly Report 🇬🇧 Unemployment Rate - 09:00 🇩🇪 WPI - 09:00 🇪🇸 CPI - 10:00 🇫🇷 CPI - 10:45 🇪🇺 Lending Survey (ECB) - 11:00 🇪🇺 Industrial Production - 12:00 🇪🇺 ZEW Economic Sentiment - 12:00 🇬🇧 30y T-Gilt Auction - 12:00 🇪🇺 Reserve Assets Total - 13:00 🇺🇸 NY Empire State Manufacturing Index - 15:30 🇺🇸 Daily (FOMC) - 18:30 🇺🇸 Kugler (FOMC) - 20:05

Let's break down the most important ones:

🇬🇧 Unemployment Rate - 09:00 AM

Previous Rate (4.1% )

Forecast (4.6%)

TheUnemployment Rate is an indicator that shows the percentage of people who are unemployed to the total labor force. This indicator plays an important role in assessing the state of the economy, as the unemployment rate directly affects the welfare of the population and the economic stability of the country.

To accurately calculate the unemployment rate, it is necessary to determine who exactly is in the labor force. The labor force includes all people who either have a job or are actively looking for one, i.e. the unemployed. Those who are neither working nor looking for work, such as students, retirees, or housewives, are not considered part of the labor force and are not included in the calculation of the unemployment rate.

A higher unemployment rate may indicate problems in the economy, such as low demand for labor or structural changes.

🇫🇷 CPI - 10:45

Previous MoM (0.5% ); YoY (1.8%)

Forecast MoM (-1.2% ); YoY (1.2%)

TheConsumer Price Index (CPI) is one of the key economic indicators widely used to gauge a country's inflation rate. This index is calculated based on a careful measurement of changes in the prices of a wide range of goods and services that are included in the so-called "consumer basket". In the structure of the CPI, approximately 2/3 of the basket consists of services and 1/3 of goods. This distribution reflects current trends in developed economies, where the service sector plays an increasingly important role.

Core CPI, or core CPI, is a modified version of the standard CPI. The key difference of Core CPI is that two important components are excluded from its calculation: food and energy. Using Core CPI along with the standard CPI gives a more complete picture of inflationary processes. While the CPI reflects changes in the general price level, including short-term fluctuations, the Core CPI allows assessing underlying inflationary trends that are less susceptible to temporary factors.

Regular monitoring of these indicators allows the Central Bank to assess the effectiveness of monetary policy, forecast economic trends and make informed decisions in the field of economic regulation.

How does the price dynamics play out? A rise in values will be an incentive to tighten monetary policy and a corresponding strengthening of the currency, and vice versa.

🇬🇧 30y T-Gilt Auction - 12:00 p.m.

The yield on auctioned government bonds reflects the return an investor will receive by holding the bond to maturity. Governments issue these obligations to cover budget deficits and refinance debt. The average yield at auction is important for assessing the health of the economy and the level of confidence in the government.

Fluctuations in yields can indicate changes in the economy and investor expectations. If yields are rising compared to previous auctions, it may indicate a decline in confidence or expectations of rising interest rates and currency appreciation.

Wednesday

🇬🇧 CPI, PPI, RPI - 09:00 🇬🇧 House Price Index - 11:30 🇬🇧 7y T-Gilt Auction - 12:00 🇩🇪 30y T-Bund Auction - 12:30 🇺🇸 MBA 30y Mortage Rate + Mortage Index - 14:00 🇺🇸 MBA Purchase Index - 14:00 🇺🇸 Export/Import Price Index - 15:30

Let's break down the most important ones:

🇬🇧 CPI - 09:00

Previous MoM (0.3% ); YoY (2.2% )

Forecast MoM (0.4%); YoY (2.2%)

Consumer Price Index (CPI) is one of the key economic indicators widely used to assess the inflation rate in the country. This index is calculated on the basis of careful measurement of changes in prices for a wide range of goods and services, which are included in the so-called "consumer basket". In the structure of the CPI, approximately 2/3 of the basket consists of services and 1/3 of goods. This distribution reflects current trends in developed economies, where the service sector plays an increasingly important role.

Core CPI, or core CPI, is a modified version of the standard CPI. The key difference of Core CPI is that two important components are excluded from its calculation: food and energy. Using Core CPI along with the standard CPI gives a more complete picture of inflationary processes. While the CPI reflects changes in the general price level, including short-term fluctuations, the Core CPI allows assessing underlying inflationary trends that are less susceptible to temporary factors.

Regular monitoring of these indicators allows the Central Bank to assess the effectiveness of monetary policy, forecast economic trends and make informed decisions in the field of economic regulation.

How does the price dynamics play out? A rise in values will be an incentive to tighten monetary policy and the corresponding strengthening of the currency, and vice versa.

🇬🇧 PPI - 09:00

Input

Previous MoM (-0.5% ); YoY (-1.2%)

Forecast MoM (0.2%); YoY (2.9%)

Output

Previous MoM (-0.3% ); YoY (0.2%)

Forecast MoM (0.1%); YoY (3.2%)

PPI (Producer Price Index) - Producer Price Index, reflects changes in the prices of goods and services from the point of view of their producers and sellers. This index covers a wide range of industries, including raw materials, materials and intermediate products. PPI has a lagged effect on measures of consumer inflation because changes in the prices of raw materials and intermediate goods are not immediately reflected in prices for final consumers. For example, an increase in metal prices may not immediately affect the price of a car at a car dealership, but over time this increased cost may be passed on to the consumer. It is important to note that PPI takes into account not only goods but also services, making it a comprehensive measure of price changes throughout the economy. This provides a more complete picture of economic processes and potential inflationary pressures.

How does the PPI score on price dynamics? Rising values will be an incentive to tighten monetary policy and the corresponding strengthening of the currency.

🇬🇧 7y T-Gilt Auction - 12:00 pm

The yield on auctioned government bonds reflects the return an investor will receive by holding the bond to maturity. Governments issue these obligations to cover budget deficits and refinance debt. The average yield at auction is important for assessing the health of the economy and the level of confidence in the government.

Fluctuations in yields can indicate changes in the economy and investor expectations. If yields are rising compared to previous auctions, it may indicate a decline in confidence or expectations of rising interest rates and a strengthening currency.

🇩🇪 30y T-Bund Auction - 12:30 p.m.

The yield on auctioned government bonds reflects the return an investor will receive by holding the bond until it matures. Governments issue these obligations to cover budget deficits and refinance debt. The average yield at auction is important for assessing the health of the economy and the level of confidence in the government.

Fluctuations in yields can indicate changes in the economy and investor expectations. If yields are rising compared to previous auctions, it may indicate a decline in confidence or expectations of rising interest rates and currency appreciation.

Thursday

🇪🇺 Trade Balance - 12:00 🇪🇺 Final CPI - 12:00 🇪🇺 Final Core CPI - 12:00 🇪🇺 EU Leaders Summit - 13:00 🏦🇪🇺 Interest Rate Decision - 15:15 🇺🇸 Unemployment Claims - 15:30 🇺🇸 Retail Sales - 15:30 🇺🇸 Manufacturing/Industrial Production - 16:15 🇺🇸 Retail/Business Inventories - 17:00 🇺🇸 Atlanta FED GDPnow (q3) - 19:00 🇺🇸 US Foreign Buying, T-bonds - 23:00 🇺🇸 Overall Net Capital Flow - 23:00 🇬🇧 Woods (BoE) - 23:00 🇺🇸 FEDʼs Balance Sheet - 23:30 🇺🇸 Reserve Balances with FED - 23:30

Let's break down the most important ones:

🇪🇺 Trade Balance - 12:00

Previous figure (21.4 billion)

MoM Forecast (21.4 bln.)

Trade Balance is an economic indicator that reflects the difference between the value of goods and services exported abroad and the value of goods and services imported into a country over a given period of time. If a country exports more goods and services than it imports, the balance of trade is considered positive, which means there is a trade surplus. In this case, a country's economy receives more income from foreign markets than it spends on buying foreign goods and services.

On the other hand, if a country imports more than it exports, the trade balance becomes negative, indicating a trade deficit. This may indicate that a country's economy is more dependent on foreign goods and services than it produces and sells to foreign markets.

The trade balance is an important indicator of a country's economic health. A positive trade balance can strengthen the national currency and increase foreign exchange reserves, while a negative trade balance may signal problems with the competitiveness of the economy or a significant demand for imported goods. Economists and analysts closely monitor changes in the trade balance as they can have an impact on exchange rates, inflation, and a country's overall economic outlook.

🇪🇺 Final CPI - 12:00

Previous MoM (0.1% ); YoY (2.2%)

Forecast MoM (-0.1%); YoY (1.8%)

🇪🇺 Final Core CPI - 12:00 PM

Previous MoM (0.3% ); YoY (2.8%)

Forecast MoM (0.1% ); YoY (2.7%)

TheConsumer Price Index (CPI) is one of the key economic indicators widely used to gauge a country's inflation rate. This index is calculated based on a careful measurement of changes in the prices of a wide range of goods and services that are included in the so-called "consumer basket". In the structure of the CPI, approximately 2/3 of the basket consists of services and 1/3 of goods. This distribution reflects current trends in developed economies, where the service sector plays an increasingly important role.

Core CPI, or core CPI, is a modified version of the standard CPI. The key difference of Core CPI is that two important components are excluded from its calculation: food and energy. Using Core CPI along with the standard CPI gives a more complete picture of inflationary processes. While the CPI reflects changes in the general price level, including short-term fluctuations, the Core CPI allows assessing underlying inflationary trends that are less susceptible to temporary factors.

Regular monitoring of these indicators allows the Central Bank to assess the effectiveness of monetary policy, forecast economic trends and make informed decisions in the field of economic regulation.

How does the price dynamics play out? A rise in values will be an incentive to tighten monetary policy and the corresponding strengthening of the currency, and vice versa.

🏦🇪🇺 Interest Rate Decision - 3:15 p.m.

Previous Rate (3.65%)

Forecast (3.40%)

A country's central bank plays a key role in setting interest rates, which directly affect how much commercial banks will charge for loans and how much they will pay for deposits. Interest rates are part of a country's monetary policy, which the central bank uses to control economic conditions, inflation and employment.

How it works:

If the central bank lowers interest rates, it makes credit cheaper for businesses and consumers, which stimulates economic growth. At the same time, lower rates can also make it less attractive to hold money in the local currency because deposits generate less income. If the central bank raises rates, it conversely makes loans more expensive, which can restrain economic activity but also makes the local currency more attractive to investors looking for high returns on deposits.

Importance for the foreign exchange market:

Interest rates are among the main factors affecting the value of the national currency in international markets. Rate decisions and expectations of rate changes can significantly affect currency valuations.

An increase in interest rates usually leads to currency appreciation. This is because a higher rate makes assets in that currency more attractive to investors, increasing demand for the currency. A decrease in interest rates, on the other hand, causes the currency to weaken as investors seek higher returns in other currencies.

🇺🇸 Unemployment Claims - 3:30pm

Previous figure (258k)

Forecast (N/A)

Initial Jobless Claims (IJC), or Unemployment Claims, is a weekly report published by the U.S. Department of Labor (Department of Labor). This report records the number of Initial Jobless Claims filed during the previous week. The IJC report gives an idea of how many people first applied for unemployment assistance, which can indicate possible changes in the labor market. For example, a surge in applications may indicate the beginning of economic difficulties, such as a decline in business activity or a wave of layoffs. Conversely, a decline in claims is often interpreted as a sign of an improving labor market and increased employment.

This indicator is also a leading indicator of the economic cycle, as it allows us to assess the current state of the economy before more comprehensive data such as employment or GDP reports are released. However, it is worth noting that Initial Jobless Claims may be subject to significant revisions, as the data may be adjusted in subsequent reports based on more complete information.

In addition, this indicator is sometimes subject to manipulation, especially during periods of economic uncertainty. This may be due to temporary factors such as seasonal fluctuations or government programs that may distort data in the short term.

A lower reading could indicate a possible rise in inflation, which in turn would lead to tighter monetary policy and a stronger currency.

🇺🇸 Retail Sales - 15:30

Previous MoM (0.1% )

MoM Forecast (0.3%)

Retail Sales track consumer demand for already manufactured goods. Retail Sales data is released monthly by the U.S. Census Bureau and indicates the direction of the economy. It acts as a key economic barometer and determines whether inflationary pressures exist. Retail sales are measured by durable and non-durable goods purchased over a period of time. Sales data for the report are drawn from 13 types of retail establishments, ranging from food service establishments to retail stores.

A stronger than expected reading should be positive for the currency, while a weaker than expected reading should be negative for the currency.

🇺🇸 Atlanta FED GDPnow (q3) - 7:00 p.m.

GDPNow is not an official forecast from the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. It should be viewed as a current estimate of real GDP growth based on available economic data for the current measured quarter. GDPNow does not include subjective adjustments - the estimate is based solely on the mathematical results of the model. In particular, it does not take into account the effects of COVID-19 and social mobility beyond their impact on the raw GDP data and related economic reports that have already been published. GDPNow also does not predict their impact on future economic reports beyond the standard internal dynamics of the model.

Friday

🇬🇧 Retail Sales - 09:00 🇪🇺 Current Account - 11:00 🇪🇺 Construction Output - 12:00 🇪🇺 EU Leaders Summit - 13:00 🇺🇸 Building Permits (Prelim) - 15:30 🇺🇸 Housing Starts - 15:30 🇺🇸 Atlanta FED GDPnow (q3) - 17:30 🇺🇸 Waller (FED) - 19:10 🌍 CFTC Report - 22:30

Let's break down the most important ones:

🇬🇧 Retail Sales - 09:00

Previous MoM (0.1%)

MoM Forecast (0.2%)

Retail Sales track consumer demand for already-prepared goods. Retail Sales data is released monthly by the U.S. Census Bureau and indicates the direction of the economy. It acts as a key economic barometer and determines whether inflationary pressures exist. Retail sales are measured by durable and non-durable goods purchased over a period of time. Sales data for the report is drawn from 13 types of retail establishments, ranging from food service establishments to retail stores.

A stronger than expected reading should be positive for the currency, while a weaker than expected reading should be negative for the currency.

🇺🇸 Atlanta FED GDPnow (q3) - 5:30 p.m.

GDPNow is not an official forecast from the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. It should be viewed as a current estimate of real GDP growth based on available economic data for the current measured quarter. GDPNow does not include subjective adjustments - the estimate is based solely on the mathematical results of the model. In particular, it does not take into account the effects of COVID-19 and social mobility beyond their impact on the raw GDP data and related economic reports that have already been published. GDPNow also does not predict their impact on future economic reports beyond the standard internal dynamics of the model.

🌍 CFTC Report - 10:30 pm.

TheCommitment of Traders (COT) Report is an important weekly report that provides detailed information on the aggregate futures positions of various categories of market participants on U.S. exchanges. It is published every Friday at 22:30 GMT+3 by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). This report serves as a snapshot of the market, showing the distribution of positions between large institutional investors, commercial participants and retail traders. This analysis helps you as traders and analysts to understand market sentiment, identify possible trends and predict future price movements based on how different groups of market participants allocate their positions.

Crypto

BTC/USDT

Monthly

https://www.tradingview.com/x/yeFsTVnZ/

Monthly candle looks great as well as the news background, we just need to see a close above 65000.

Weekly

https://www.tradingview.com/x/XInGNAW7/

Here the situation is better, we need to wait for the week to close above 62921 and go above 65000 next week. As a matter of fact nothing is changing.

Daily

https://www.tradingview.com/x/w7LF9A7V/

The stage with the first scenario worked out perfectly, I would not consider the second one, but on the contrary, closing the day above 64446 will be a great factor to continue longing to 70000.

ETH/USDT

Monthly

https://www.tradingview.com/x/NG6y0yYl/

Purely visually, ether is still weak. The main thing for us is not to sell the monthly close below 2285 and wait for an abnormal liquidity spillover into ether.

Weekly

https://www.tradingview.com/x/Qwx4Eq85/

I still keep the break option in my mind. There are few factors for abnormal growth so far.

Daily

https://www.tradingview.com/x/yM3C87zE/

From a Range perspective, the focus will go to local highs or lows, so it would be ideal to work from 2800 and then ignore 2100, but spot orders should be at 2100, just in case.

FX & Stock market

DXY

Daily

https://www.tradingview.com/x/fsRT09vR/

DXY continues to move in an uptrend towards 103.5 (BSL) as a major target. At the moment, we should expect a small correction to the OB zone or Range High, before the Eurozone interest rate release. A EUR rate cut could short-term trigger demand for the USD, which means the week is expected to be upward for the DXY.

EURUSD

Daily

https://www.tradingview.com/x/ty5OFRAC/

EURUSD continues to move deep into the global consolidation, where at the moment it met support in the form of a small Gap, but the main target is still the level of 1.0750 (SSL + 0.5Range). The current zone of interest is the lower boundary of the local consolidation with the OB zone. In case of breakdown of the marked short OB the plan can be disabled.

GBPUSD

Daily

For GBPUSD, there are no changes from last week. The SMT with EURUSD is still intact, with the previously noted FVG SIBI zone not tested and last week's compression liquidity. We expect a correction to FVG SIBI with a further decline to FVG BISI, but in case of an inversion - price may continue to move in an upward direction.

SP500 / NQ100

Daily

https://www.tradingview.com/x/SJxhkVTR/

As expected^ against the backdrop of good inflation numbers (especially PPI) we saw a slight rise in the stock indices with the SP500 removing BSL and the NQ100 returning to the FVG SIBI zone. In terms of fundamental data and sector valuations - we expect a stronger upward movement in SP500 on the back of growth in industrial, financials and healthcare sectors, with the NQ100 remaining on the back of weak growth in technology sector as seen in the chart.

SP500 is expected to test OB and continue upward movement with a potential test of 5920-5950 zone. As for NQ100 it is hard to say, we should follow the current FVG SIBI and in case of its inversion consider a move towards ATN.