Weekly plan - 04.11 - 08.11.2024

Macro

A particularly volatile week is forecasted, mainly due to the US elections, which will be held on Tuesday. It is recommended to refrain from trading on this day due to the risk of increased manipulation. Tuesday will also see the release of the ISM Services Business Activity Index, where the prices section will provide preliminary data for the upcoming CPI for September and the employment section will provide indirect information on the state of the labor market. Thursday is expected to be a very volatile day as the Bank of England and the Fed will make interest rate decisions. We recommend refraining from trading.

Monday

🟠🇪🇺 HCOB Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (Oct) - 11:00 am

🟠🇪🇺 Eurogroup Meetings - 12:00 pm

🟠🇺🇸 Factory Orders (MoM) (Sep) - 17:00

🟢🇺🇸 3-6 Month Bill Auction - 5:30 pm

🟠🇺🇸 3-Year Note Auction - 8:00 pm

Let's take a look at the most important ones:

🇪🇺 HCOB Manufacturing PMI (Oct) - 11:00 AM

Previous Manufacturing (45.0)

Forecast Manufacturing (45.9)

PMI (Purchasing Managers Index) is a business activity index, which is one of the key indicators of a country's economic health. The PMI is calculated based on surveys of purchasing managers who assess the current conditions and outlook for their businesses. These surveys cover aspects such as output, new orders, inventories of goods, employment and shipments. A PMI above 50 indicates economic growth and expansion of business activity (currency appreciation). If the index is above 48 for an extended period of time, it may also indicate that the economy is still growing, albeit at a lower intensity. A reading below 48 indicates a contraction in business activity.

PMI Manufacturing - measures business activity in the manufacturing sector. It is derived from surveys of representatives of manufacturing companies that measure parameters such as output, new orders, employment and inventories. PMI Manufacturing is an important indicator of the health of the manufacturing industry, which plays a key role in the economy, especially in countries with developed industrial sectors.

🇺🇸 3-6 Month Bill Auction - 5:30 p.m.

3 Month

6 Month

The yield on auctioned government bonds reflects the return an investor will receive by holding the bond to maturity. Governments issue these obligations to cover budget deficits and refinance debt. The average yield at auction is important for assessing the health of the economy and the level of confidence in the government.

Fluctuations in yields can indicate changes in the economy and investor expectations. If yields are rising compared to previous auctions, it may indicate a decline in confidence or expectations of rising interest rates and currency appreciation.

🟠 🇺🇸 3-Year Note Auction - 8:00 p.m.

Tuesday

🟠🇬🇧 BRC Retail Sales Monitor (YoY) (Oct) - 02:01 AM

🟠🇬🇧 S&P Global/CIPS UK Services PMI (Oct) - 11:30 am

🔴 🇺🇸 U.S. Presidential Election

🟠🇪🇺 Eurogroup Meetings - 12:00 pm

🟠🇺🇸 Trade Balance (Sep) - 15:30

🔴🇺🇸 S&P Global Services PMI (Oct) - 4:45 pm

🔴🇺🇸 ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Oct) - 5:00 pm

🔴🇺🇸 10-Year Note Auction - 8:00 p.m.

🟠🇺🇸 Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q4) - 8:00 p.m.

🟠🇺🇸 API Weekly Crude Oil Stock - 11:30 pm

Let's take a look at the most important ones:

🇬🇧 S&P Global/CIPS UK Services PMI (Oct) - 11:30am

Previous Services (52.4)

Forecast Services (51.8)

TheServices PMI is a measure of business activity in the services sector. It is based on surveys of companies operating in service industries such as transportation, communications, finance, health and education. This index provides an indication of the state and prospects of the services sector, which in most developed economies accounts for a significant portion of GDP.

🇺🇸 Trade Balance (Sep) - 15:30

Previous (-70.40B)

Forecast (-71.90B)

Thetrade balance is an economic indicator that reflects the difference between the value of goods and services exported abroad and the value of goods and services imported into a country over a given period of time. If a country exports more goods and services than it imports, the balance of trade is considered positive, which means there is a trade surplus. In this case, a country's economy receives more income from foreign markets than it spends on buying foreign goods and services.

On the other hand, if a country imports more than it exports, then the trade balance becomes negative, indicating a trade deficit. This may indicate that a country's economy is more dependent on foreign goods and services than it produces and sells to foreign markets.

The trade balance is an important indicator of a country's economic health. A positive trade balance can strengthen the national currency and increase foreign exchange reserves, while a negative trade balance can signal problems with the competitiveness of the economy or a significant demand for imported goods. Economists and analysts closely monitor changes in the trade balance as they can have an impact on exchange rates, inflation and a country's overall economic outlook.

🇺🇸 S&P Global Services PMI (Oct) - 4:45 p.m.

Previous Services (55.2)

Forecast Services (55.3)

S&P figures have less influence and are considered not as accurate as those from ISM.

🇺🇸 ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Oct) - 17:00

Previous Non-Manufacturing (54.9)

Non-Manufacturing Forecast(53.3)

🇺🇸 10-Year Note Auction - 8:00 p.m.

Wednesday

🟠🇪🇺 HCOB Eurozone Services PMI (Oct) - 11:00 AM

🟠🇬🇧 S&P Global / CIPS UK Construction PMI (Oct) - 11:30 am

🟢🇪🇺 PPI (MoM) (Sep) - 12:00 pm

🔴🇺🇸 Crude Oil Inventories - 17:30

🔴🇺🇸 30-Year Bond Auction - 8:00 pm

Let's take a look at the most important ones:

🇺🇸 30-Year Bond Auction - 8:00 p.m.

Thursday

🟠🇬🇧 Halifax House Price Index (MoM) (Oct) - 09:00

🔴🇬🇧 BoE Interest Rate Decision (Nov) - 14:00

🟠🇬🇧 BoE MPC Meeting Minutes - 2:00 pm

🔴🇺🇸 Initial Jobless Claims - 3:30 pm

🟢🇺🇸 4-8-Week Bill Auction - 6:30 p.m.

🟠🇺🇸 Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q4) - 8:00 p.m.

🔴🇺🇸 Fed Interest Rate Decision - 8:00 pm

🔴🇺🇸 FOMC Statement - 21:00 pm

🔴🇺🇸 FOMC Press Conference - 9:30 pm

🟠🇺🇸 Fed's Balance Sheet - 23:30

Let's take a look at the most important ones:

🇬🇧 BoE Interest Rate Decision (Nov) - 2:00 pm

Current Rate (5.00%)

Forecast (4.75%)

A country's central bank plays a key role in setting interest rates, which directly affect how much commercial banks will charge for loans and how much they will pay for deposits. Interest rates are part of a country's monetary policy, which the central bank uses to control economic conditions, inflation and employment.

How it works:

If the central bank lowers interest rates, it makes credit cheaper for businesses and consumers, which stimulates economic growth. At the same time, lower rates can also make it less attractive to hold money in the local currency because deposits generate less income. If the central bank raises rates, it conversely makes loans more expensive, which can restrain economic activity but also makes the local currency more attractive to investors looking for high returns on deposits.

Importance for the foreign exchange market:

Interest rates are among the main factors affecting the value of the national currency in international markets. Rate decisions and expectations of rate changes can significantly affect currency valuations.

An increase in interest rates usually leads to currency appreciation. This is because a higher rate makes assets in that currency more attractive to investors, increasing demand for the currency. A decrease in interest rates, on the other hand, causes a currency to weaken as investors seek higher yields in other currencies.

🇺🇸 4-8-Week Bill Auction - 6:30 p.m.

8-Week

8-Week

🇺🇸 Initial Jobless Claims - 3:30 p.m.

Previous (216K)

Forecast (n/a)

Initial Jobless Claims (IJC), or unemployment claims, is a weekly report published by the U.S. Department of Labor (Department of Labor). This report records the number of Initial Jobless Claims filed during the previous week. The IJC report gives an idea of how many people first applied for unemployment assistance, which can indicate possible changes in the labor market. For example, a surge in applications may indicate the beginning of economic difficulties, such as a decline in business activity or a wave of layoffs. Conversely, a decline in applications is often interpreted as a sign that the labor market is improving and employment is rising.

This indicator is also a leading indicator of the economic cycle, as it allows us to gauge the current state of the economy before more comprehensive data such as employment or GDP reports are released. However, it is worth noting that Initial Jobless Claims may be subject to significant revisions, as the data may be adjusted in subsequent reports based on more comprehensive information.

In addition, this indicator is sometimes subject to manipulation, especially during periods of economic uncertainty. This may be due to temporary factors, such as seasonal fluctuations or government programs, which may distort the data in the short term.

A lower reading could indicate a possible rise in inflation, which in turn would lead to tighter monetary policy and a stronger currency.

🇺🇸 Fed Interest Rate Decision - 20:00

Current Rate (5.00%)

Forecast (4.75%)

🇺🇸 FOMC Statement - 21:00

The U.S. Federal Reserve's Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Statement is the primary tool the committee uses to communicate with investors about monetary policy. It contains the results of the interest rate vote, discusses the economic outlook, and gives hints as to the possible outcomes of future votes.

A softer-than-expected statement may be perceived as negative for the U.S. dollar, while a tighter-than-expected statement may be perceived as positive for the U.S. dollar.

Friday

🟠🇪🇺 EU Leaders Summit - 12:00 pm

🟠🇬🇧 BoE MPC Member Pill Speaks - 2:15 pm

🟠🗂️ CFTC Report - 22:30 PM

Let's take a look at the most important ones:

🗂️ CFTC Report - 22:30

TheCommitment of Traders (COT) Report is an important weekly report that provides detailed information on the aggregate futures positions of various categories of market participants on U.S. exchanges. It is published every Friday at 22:30 GMT+3 by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). This report serves as a snapshot of the market, showing the distribution of positions between large institutional investors, commercial participants and retail traders. This analysis helps you as traders and analysts to understand market sentiment, identify possible trends and predict future price movements based on how different groups of market participants allocate their positions.

Crypto

BTC

Monthly

https://www.tradingview.com/x/fNRoNSRV/

So far bitcoin is not threatened because ATH is preserved, I'm interested in a pullback to 64k.

Weekly

https://www.tradingview.com/x/OjVfHyHR/

Terrible week, however nothing terrible for bitcoin, but very bad for altcoins.

Daily

https://www.tradingview.com/x/AxulhZlh/

Here we will either hold the current structure and everything will be neutral or on the contrary we will fly to 64k

ETH

Monthly

https://www.tradingview.com/x/xuGh0AST/

Get ready to buy back at 2100.

Weekly

https://www.tradingview.com/x/oh930Cwh/

A second phase of developments is expected.

Daily

https://www.tradingview.com/x/LGKVtkCq/

Likewise, nothing changes, prepare to disembark.

ETHBTC

Monthly

https://www.tradingview.com/x/h8ey8TZj/

Still no changes.

FX & Stock market

DXY

Daily

https://www.tradingview.com/x/HVxoOfMv/

As expected from the last plan - the DXY index stopped out, forming a short-term consolidation, where at the moment we see the continuation of OF with the removal of SSL and Friday's close with absorption on the background of the release of labor market data (NFP). This technical pattern may suggest an upward movement to BSL 104.8 and FVG SIBI - 105.3, but it should be noted that on Tuesday, November 5, the elections will be held, and on Thursday, November 7, we will see the FOMC and interest rate data. These events do not allow us to make a clear plan for this week. We advise you to step away from the charts this week and take a little vacation.

EURUSD

Daily

https://www.tradingview.com/x/KO27NxnV/

EURUSD is perfectly executing the plan we created last week, where we assumed the price transition into consolidation phase and movement to FVG SIBI and then reversal to GAP. The price reached the FVG SIBI zone and reversed to the downside, so we continue our plan until the GAP zone - 1.0730. However, keep in mind that everything can change on the background of the current week's events.

GBPUSD

Daily

https://www.tradingview.com/x/faV4KQCo/

GBPUSD has formed an SMT-like discordance with EURUSD, with it currently sandwiched between the weekly FVG BISI and SMT+OB. In addition to important US events coming out this week, the Bank of England interest rate is also coming out on Thursday, November 7. The large number of risk events this week does not allow us to make a clear plan.

SP500

Daily

https://www.tradingview.com/x/bbNWhUAZ/

Risky assets such as stocks and cryptocurrencies turned downward before the uncertainty of the election, which is quite logical, so at the moment we focus on the downward trend. SP500 is in consolidation, where it returned to its boundaries, the first support zone will be the value of 5717, where in case of its breakdown - we will see movement to the zone of 50% consolidation (5530), and the main target is Internal SSL at the value of 5455.

NQ100

Daily

https://www.tradingview.com/x/5scWsRpy/

In last week's weekly plan we mentioned that NQ100 was starting a downtrend and that 20200 would be the problem area. Last week fully justified our scenario by impulsively declining and consolidating below 20200. Thus, the downtrend context is confirmed and as we mentioned in the last plan, if 20200 is broken, we may see a move to the lower boundary of the local consolidation Range Low 19800, the only thing left to do is to implement this plan.