Weekly plan - 29.07 - 02.08.2024

Macro

Next week sees the release of Eurozone inflation data, the labor market and the state of the US manufacturing sector. The Federal Reserve will hold a meeting on the credit rate.

It is advised to pay attention to events that cause uncertainty in price movements:

Wednesday - Core CPI Flash Estimate y/y, CPI Flash Estimate y/y, ADP Non-Farm Employment Change, Federal Funds Rate, FOMC Statement, FOMC Press Conference.

Friday - Average Hourly Earnings m/m, Non-Farm Employment Change, Unemployment Rate.

Tuesday

EUR (Euro) / German Prelim CPI m/m - All Day

German Prelim CPI for the month.

DE Statis publishes an indicator based on the change in prices of goods and services purchased by consumers. It is one of the most important indicators in the calculation of inflation, as consumer prices account for a large part of overall inflation.

Germany's preliminary index of consumer price change is an early indication of price changes. On the day the information is released, data is collected throughout the country throughout the day. The actual consumer price index will be released two weeks later.

For a year now, central banks in most countries have been fighting inflation by raising refinancing rates. The decline in inflation suggests that the work is being done successfully.

The latest actual rate (0.1%) was lower than the forecast (0.2%).

The current market forecast is 0.3%.

You can read more here.

USD (US Dollar) / CB Consumer Confidence - 17:00

Consumer Confidence Index.

The Conference Board releases an indicator based on a survey of about 3,000 households that asks them to rate current and future economic conditions, including labor availability, business conditions, and overall economic conditions.

The indicator looks at how consumers are feeling at the current moment, as well as what they expect in the future. If they feel negative, it indicates a possible decrease in consumption in the future, which worsens the economic situation. If they feel positive, it indicates a possible increase in consumption in the future, which improves the economic situation.

The latest actual reading (100.4) was higher than the forecast (100.0).

The current market forecast is 99.8.

You can read more here.

USD (US Dollar) / JOLTS Job Openings - 17:00

Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS).

TheUS Federal Bureau of Statistics releases monthly statistics on the number of job openings in the labor market. The number has a time lag of 35 days because collecting such a large amount of data is quite difficult. The data is collected as part of the JOLTS program - Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey.

The number of job openings is an important indicator of the health of the economy. When the economy grows, new companies open and existing companies expand. To support this expansion, workers are needed. To recruit them, companies post job openings.

If we see a positive change in the number of job openings, it means that the economy is actively growing and needs new workers.

If we see a negative change in the number of job openings, it means that the economy is either stagnating or beginning to shrink.

As part of the fight against inflation, the Fed is trying to put the brakes on the economy. One of the most important factors affecting inflation is people's consumption. The safer people feel about their current situation, the more they consume. This causes a huge cascading effect throughout the economy. If people no longer feel safe, they start to consume less and the economy along the chain starts to actively slow down.

The main factor in people's security is employment and the ability to get a paycheck. Even though the labor market is quite stable, the decrease in the number of applications is the first step to worsen this condition. Companies can't hire new people, the next step could be layoffs

The number of vacancies has been falling steadily for six months already, which indicates that the development of enterprises is slowing down and they are going into the economy mode, as well as the balance between supply and demand on the labor market is restored.

The latest release of this indicator (8.14 million) was higher than the forecasted value (7.96 million).

The current market forecast is 8.14 million.

You can read more here.

Wednesday

EUR (Euro) / Core CPI Flash Estimate y/y - 12:00 pm

Important data with a serious impact on price movement volatility!

Preliminary Core CPI Flash Estimate for the Eurozone.

Eurostat publishes an indicator based on the change in prices of goods and services purchased by consumers, excluding food, energy, tobacco and alcohol in the 13 member states of the Eurozone. It is one of the most important indicators in the calculation of inflation, as consumer prices account for a large part of overall inflation.

The preliminary Eurozone Core CPI is an early indication of price changes. The actual core CPI will be released in two weeks.

The latest actual reading (2.9%) was higher than the forecast (2.8%).

The current market forecast is 2.8%.

You can read more here.

EUR (Euro) / CPI Flash Estimate y/y - 12:00 pm

Important data with a serious impact on price movement volatility!

Preliminary CPI Flash Estimate in Eurozone.

Eurostat publishes an indicator based on the change in prices of goods and services purchased by consumers in the 13 member states of the Eurozone. It is one of the most important indicators in the calculation of inflation, as consumer prices account for a large part of overall inflation.

The preliminary Eurozone Consumer Price Change Index is an early indication of price changes. The actual consumer price index will be released two weeks later.

The last actual index (2.5%) was equal to the forecast (2.5%).

The current market forecast is 2.4%.

You can read more here.

USD (US Dollar) / ADP Non-Farm Employment Change - 15:15

Important data that has a serious impact on the volatility of the price movement!

Non-Farm Employment Change, excluding the agricultural sector and the government.

ADP Research Institute publishes monthly statistics on changes in the labor market based on the data received during the month.

The indicator is based on an automated analysis of payroll data for more than 25 million workers. The indicator is released earlier than official government data. Since the ADP indicator is released earlier, it has a greater impact on the market.

Employment is one of the most important macroeconomic indicators, as it allows earning money used for consumption. If a person is laid off from work, he/she is no longer active and is more likely to file for unemployment to receive benefits. This is additional pressure on the budget.

Since the Fed's main task at the moment is to cool down the economy, the employment rate is used as one of the main indicators when making decisions on raising/lowering the refinancing rates, as well as the duration of keeping the rate in a certain range of values.

Employment growth indicates activity in the economy. New companies are opening, people are getting jobs, getting paid and spending their paychecks. Companies pay taxes and order raw materials and services for their operations. This affects a very long chain of intermediaries.

A decline in employment indicates stagnation, or a decline in the economy. Companies are closing down, or going into austerity mode. People are being laid off from their jobs because of cost optimization. They cannot be active participants in the economy and a large number of elements of the economy suffer.

The latest release of the indicator (150 thousand) was below the forecasted value (163 thousand).

The current market forecast is 166 thousand.

You can read more here.

USD (US Dollar) / Employment Cost Index q/q - 15:30

Labor Cost Index.

Every quarter, about 30 days after the end of the quarter, theU.S. Federal Bureau of Statistics releases a measure of the change in prices paid by businesses and the government for civilian labor.

This is an important indicator of the change in workers' compensation. Most often, any wage increase is passed on to consumers - the price of goods goes up.

Natural wage growth is a sign of a healthy economy, but a large jump in wage levels can lead to higher inflation.

The latest release of the indicator (1.2%) was higher than the forecast (1.0%).

The current market forecast is 1.0%.

You can read more here.

USD (US Dollar) / Pending Home Sales m/m - 17:00

Change in the number of homes (secondary market) under contract for sale but still awaiting a closing transaction.

TheNational Association of Realtors publishes monthly data on the change in the number of secondary market homes for sale.

Real estate is the engine of the economy. The more bids find the final buyer, the more it affects the economy. The likelihood of starting renovations after buying a home is very high. Any repairs or changes are a waste of money on building materials, furniture, professionals and more. A loan is often taken out for renovations, which forces you to pay interest in the future and improve the bank.

You can read about the impact of real estate on the economy here.

The latest release of the index (-2.1%) was below the forecast (0.6%).

The current market forecast is 1.6%.

You can read more here.

USD (US Dollar) / Federal Funds Rate - 21:00

Important data that has a serious impact on the volatility of the price movement!

The main refinancing rate in the US (Fed).

TheFed is voting on future actions with the refinancing rate.

The refinancing rate is the most important parameter affecting liquidity in the financial system. Depending on the size of the lending rate, the lending rates for companies and consumers depend.

Banks can borrow funds from the central bank at the current lending rate. In order to make money, they charge their interest and lend to companies and consumers. The higher the rate, the more interest the companies and consumers have to pay on the loan.

The refinancing rate is the most important tool to fight inflation. Without exotic influences (logistical collapse under Covid-19 and supply chain disruptions), inflation rises from increasing consumer demand. Companies start producing more and more to meet demand, while prices also rise. As companies start ordering more and more raw materials to produce, raw material prices also increase. A spiral of constantly rising prices is created.

Similar to a fire, you have to reduce the oxygen supply and the fire will start to shrink. The more expensive it becomes to get money, the less people start buying goods, the less businesses produce and the less the cost of raw materials increases.

Because of the problems with the heavy debt load, increasing the refinancing rate becomes an increasingly dangerous tool. However, the inflation situation may be improving, but the problems remain. For this reason, the rate is likely to remain at the same level.

The current market forecast is 5.5%.

You can read more here.

USD (US Dollar) / FOMC Statement - 21:00

Important data that has a serious impact on the volatility of the price movement!

FOMC Monetary Policy Statement.

The FOMC Statement describes the current state of the economy, the Fed's economic and monetary policy outlook.

USD (US Dollar) / FOMC Press Conference - 21:30

Important data with a serious impact on the volatility of the price movement!

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell Press Conference.

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will be answering questions from economists and journalists during the press conference after the announcement of the monetary policy decision.

A very important event, as in his speech the head of the central bank may mention information about future actions to change the refinancing rate.

Anexample of such a speech.

Thursday

USD (US Dollar) / Unemployment Claims - 15:30

Unemployment Claims.

TheUS Department of Labor releases weekly claims data. The indicator is based on the citizens who applied for unemployment benefits for the first time in the last week.

The indicator is very important because it shows the strength/weakness of the labor market. If people are employed, they earn wages and consume services and goods. This can influence the rise in consumer inflation.

At the moment, the Fed is actively fighting inflation. A strong labor market indicates to the central bank that the economy is holding up and the current inflation situation will continue.

The more jobless claims, the better for the Fed's actions. The fewer jobless claims, the worse for the Fed's actions - they have to raise the rate even more.

The latest release of the rate (235K) was higher than forecast (237K). The labor market remains stable. For this reason, there is no particular increase in unemployment.

The current market forecast is 239 thousand.

You can read more here.

USD (US Dollar) / ISM Manufacturing PMI - 17:00

Index of business activity in the manufacturing sector.

TheInstitute for Supply Management (ISM) conducts a monthly survey of purchasing managers. Managers are asked to respond to questions related to current inventories in company warehouses, the number of new replenishment requests, new orders and their prices, as well as employment, production utilization and current business conditions.

Manufacturing is one of the basic elements of any economy and is at the very beginning of the chain of creating goods that are then consumed by people. Since every manufacturer is a professional in their industry, they actively monitor the demand in the market and understand the current market trend.

If a producer sees a deteriorating market situation, there is no point in loading production capacity, investing in new facilities and hiring personnel, and purchasing new raw materials. A large number of related very important elements of the economy, such as labor market, consumption, construction and many others suffer.

The latest actual reading (48.5) was lower than the forecast (49.2).

The current market forecast is 49.0.

You can read more here.

Friday

USD (US Dollar) / Average Hourly Earnings m/m - 15:30

Important data that has a serious impact on the volatility of the price movement!

Average Hourly Earnings (excluding agricultural industry).

TheU.S. Federal Bureau of Statistics publishes monthly statistics on wage changes based on the data received for the month

Wage growth is one of the most important factors affecting inflation. The more money people receive, the more they can spend. At the same time, businesses and service companies raise prices to compensate for wage increases. This has an even greater impact on inflation.

As long as consumer activity remains at the same level, businesses and service providers will not experience difficulties and this indicator will remain close to the forecasted values.

The latest release of the indicator (0.3%) was equal to the forecast (0.3%).

The current market forecast is 0.3%.

You can read more here.

USD (US Dollar) / Non-Farm Employment Change - 15:30

Important data that has a serious impact on the volatility of the price movement!

Non-Farm Employment Change.

TheU.S. Federal Bureau of Statistics publishes monthly statistics on changes in the labor market based on monthly data.

Employment is one of the most important macroeconomic indicators, as it allows earning money used for consumption. If a person is laid off from a job, they are no longer active and are more likely to file for unemployment in order to receive benefits. This is additional pressure on the budget.

Since the Fed's main task at the moment is to cool down the economy, the employment rate is used as one of the main indicators when making decisions on raising/lowering the refinancing rates, as well as the duration of keeping the rate in a certain range of values.

Employment growth indicates activity in the economy. New companies are opening, people are getting jobs, getting paid and spending their paychecks. Companies pay taxes and order raw materials and services for their operations. This affects a very long chain of intermediaries.

A decline in employment indicates stagnation, or a decline in the economy. Companies are closing down, or going into austerity mode. People are being laid off from their jobs because of cost optimization. They cannot be active participants in the economy and a large number of elements of the economy suffer.

The latest actual figure (206 thousand) was higher than the forecast (191 thousand).

The current market forecast is 177 thousand.

You can read more here.

USD (US Dollar) / Unemployment Rate - 15:30

Important data that has a serious impact on the volatility of the price movement!

Unemployment Rate.

TheU.S. Federal Bureau of Statistics publishes monthly statistics on changes in the labor market based on monthly data. The percentage of the total labor force that is unemployed and actively looking for work during the previous month.

A broader parameter of employment discussed above. Used as a general indicator to analyze current labor market conditions.

The labor market is currently quite stable and although the manufacturing sector is under pressure and the services sector is likely to start its decline, these are lagging factors that will play out a little later. Only then will we see the impact on employment.

The latest actual figure (4.1%) was higher than the forecast (4.0%).

The current market forecast is 4.1%.

More details can be found here.

Crypto

BTC/USDT

Monthly

https://www.tradingview.com/x/sZS8SSHN/

If the monthly candle closes in this position, I think it's not hard to realize that bitcoin will feel great for a high update.

Weekly

https://www.tradingview.com/x/XsmpWGIW/

We have 2 phases of events here:

• After closing the week, we start working with POI which is expressed as a wick of the current week or on the contrary we make a capture of PWL and only then continue growth, but I think this growth will be extremely prolonged.
• after the close of the week, we are expected to see a sharp price decline towards the end of the first half of August, which may force the price to make a test of 61-62 and only then, after the altcoins squeeze, the growth we are all waiting for will begin.

Daily

https://www.tradingview.com/x/kHL5Sj2y/

Here the road map looks a bit different, the strength to bitcoin may come as soon as the price closes above 68474.55 and from there we will start the growth to 73k, however I do not particularly like this scenario, because if these events happen, then altcoins will be extremely painful and more difficult to recover and build strength back. So here I am just waiting for the month and week to close.

Dominance

https://www.tradingview.com/x/tmfmniwN/

The zone that I have been waiting with you for more than half a year, if not more, is starting the process of realization, because this is where you can see liquidity flowing into BTC than into alternative instruments and there is too much chance that ATH will be as early as possible, but the correction phase will be scary for the crypto market. Let's remember that these are all probabilities.

ETH/USDT

Monthly

https://www.tradingview.com/x/42Ok1Krh/

We can clearly see the weakness of ether compared to bitcoin, and there is only a request to see the month close higher than last month's low.

Weekly

https://www.tradingview.com/x/lyE0vYOM/

Started for health and ended for peace, that is the slogan that characterizes the P.A. of the weekly chart on ether so far. The most important thing here is not to completely engulf the last weekly candle and in this case, everything will be more or less neutral, but there are clearly high chances of another correction phase, to update 2817, so we should be ready.

Daily

https://www.tradingview.com/x/k0fsLXVN/

I am considering only one scenario here, which is the recovery of the price in the framework of growth from the current, it is obvious that the price is not ready for growth, and any bitcoin dump is a weak inflow of funds into the alt market, so I am looking at 3 options here.

ETH/BTC

Weekly

https://www.tradingview.com/x/XdZaZxoW/

It's about time I wrote something more than 3-4 words here. Given the reaction going on in this chart, which means all the liquidity is spilling over into bts and of course this market is weak so far and we have a real chance of another break. If this LOW does not hold the price, then get ready to catch alta 30+% lower from the current value if bitcoin drags it hard.

FX & Stock market

DXY

Daily

https://www.tradingview.com/x/U92qHIPs/

Ahead of the FOMC meeting and further decision on the US monetary policy, the last week showed a not so pleasant picture, being in a weakly volatile consolidation for many assets, especially on DXY. At the moment there is no change from last week's plan, nor is there a definite trend. Both sides have quite strong areas for manipulation and the movement will be completely dependent on the FOMC meeting and labor market data.

H4

https://www.tradingview.com/x/7j5HlUHB/

In this case, there is no point in building a context and we should just wait for a decoupling for further trend formation. On the one hand has a strong OB + FVG zone in the context of the removal of the Internal SSL (103.8), on the other hand the index is held by the FVG SIBI. From a technical and fundamental point of view, we believe that the probability of an upside move this week is higher than a downside move, but this is not our main plan. In this case, we recommend skipping the trading week or working with reduced risk from the key liquidity zones (PWH/PWL), until we fully understand the further trend.

EURUSD

Daily

https://www.tradingview.com/x/fvN2IZaB/

As it was said on last week's plan - EURUSD is forming MMSM pattern with the target of the local rent minimum (1.0700), however, with the release of inflation data from Germany, Eurozone, as well as taking into account the FOMC meeting, the narratives may change. At the moment we see price squeezing between two zones FVG SIBI / FVG BISI, so we advise to work from the inversion of one of them.

H4

https://www.tradingview.com/x/d0EFOWit/

From the point of view of the 4-hour timeframe we see consolidation, where the price leaves the compression from below in the form of Internal SSL, and by the last liquidity withdrawal in FVG SIBI we can understand that OF is still descending, and the point of its invalidation will be the breakdown of FVG SIBI. In general, the probability of moving lower remains.

GBPUSD

Daily

https://www.tradingview.com/x/SnpAnlw6/

GBPUSD continues to form MMSM pattern, where it consolidated below the middle of FVG BISI on Friday, which suggests the potential for downside movement to the next FVG BISI zone at 1.2700. However, in terms of consolidation deviation, we are interested in the 1.2830 level as an upper boundary from which price could get a reaction. On Thursday, the Bank of England meeting on the future monetary policy and the rate with the speech of its head Andrew Bailey, so it is advised to be careful with positions, it is expected to be a highly volatile week.

H4

https://www.tradingview.com/x/PV1BRoEV/

In terms of the 4-hour timeframe we advise to work with the current FVG zones and move on the current downward OF, closely watching its potential change on the background of news events of the week.

SP500 / NQ100

Daily

https://www.tradingview.com/x/D8IAYn7p/

Indices have quite accurately fulfilled the plan of last week and at the moment continue active decline to the marked targets.

SP500 is in the FVG BISI zone, from where it has already received a reaction for corrective movement to the FVG SIBI zone, approximately to the level of 5552 (FVL), from where we can expect the continuation of the downward trend to the next marked FVG BISI zone and the key level of Internal SSL (5270).

NQ100 is also in the FVG BISI zone, from where it has already received a reaction for a corrective movement to the FVG SIBI zone, to the level of 19650 (FVL), from where we can expect the continuation of the downtrend to the key level of Internal SSL (18500).

The current week is full of news events that will set high volatility and potentially change the current picture of the market as a whole. There is a high probability of a change of trends on the background of FOMC meetings and the release of data on the labor market in the U.S., the monetary policy of the Bank of England, as well as the release of inflation data from the Eurozone. We advise to be more careful and work with reduced risk.