Weekly plan - 23.12 - 27.12.2024

Cryptology.Key
ARTICLE BY
Cryptology.Key
15 MIN READ
Crypto News
22 December 2024
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Macro

Next week is Christmas in many countries, so banks will not be open. With a lack of liquidity from large companies and banks, the movement could be quite chaotic.

Tuesday

EUR (Euro) / German Bank Holiday - All Day

Wednesday

EUR (Euro) / French Bank Holiday - All Day

EUR (EUR) / German Bank Holiday - All Day

EUR (Euro) / Italian Bank Holiday - All Day

USD (US Dollar) / Bank Holiday - All Day

Thursday

EUR (Euro) / German Bank Holiday - All Day

EUR (Euro) / Italian Bank Holiday - All Day

USD (US Dollar) / Unemployment Claims - All Day

Unemployment Claims.

The U.S. Department of Labor releases weekly claims data. It is based on the number of people who applied for unemployment benefits for the first time in the last week.

The indicator is very important because it shows the strength/weakness of the labor market. If people are employed, they earn wages and consume services and goods. This can influence the rise in consumer inflation.

At the moment, the Fed is actively fighting inflation. A strong labor market indicates to the central bank that the economy is holding up and the current inflation situation will continue.

The more jobless claims, the better for the Fed's actions. The fewer jobless claims, the worse for the Fed's actions - they have to raise the rate even more.

The latest release of the figure (220K) was below the forecast (229K).

The current market forecast is 218 thousand.

You can read more here.

 

FX & Stock market

DXY

Daily

https://www.tradingview.com/x/nPRSPUia/

Last week's expectations did not materialize, DXY index reacted to the FOMC with upward movement on the back of J.Powell's rhetoric. However, on Friday the PCE inflation data came out 0.2 bpts lower than expected and 0.1 bpts lower than expected, which caused a reverse capital flow into risk assets, and DXY reacted with a decline. At the moment we can assume the DXY decline to the lower boundary of the formed consolidation, but we should wait for the inversion of the nearest FVG BISI.

EURUSD

Daily

https://www.tradingview.com/x/2AxSpLh9/

EURUSD again enters the deviation of the global consolidation and forms SMT to the upside. Given the latest PCE data, we can assume a rise, however only after the inversion of the noted FVG SIBI.

GBPUSD

Daily

https://www.tradingview.com/x/v0jicTQI/

GBPUSD the situation is identical to EURUSD, the pair is in local consolidation, we can expect a move to the upper boundary (Range High).

SP500

Daily

https://www.tradingview.com/x/kVgsKZfo/

SP500 is in consolidation, locally we assume the formation of inside bars inside the daily range of PCE (Friday). We will already consider the main movement in January.

NQ100

Daily

https://www.tradingview.com/x/WxLbc199/

The situation is identical. We have divergences with the SP500 on both sides, plus a large PCE range (Friday) and the current Bank Holiday suggests a move into consolidation inside the Friday range.

No plans for this week, due to Christmas Bank Holiday in Europe and US and inability to determine further narrative. As usual at the opening of the new year, assets often make manipulations, sparking a move as early as mid-January, so see you in 2025! See you then!

 

Crypto

 

BTC

https://www.tradingview.com/x/jE3xybuh/

We don't have any factors to form a long candle except to close the month above the last high, but even that won't give us anything.

Weekly

https://www.tradingview.com/x/cU7r4Rjc/

Here we also have no factors. If we absorb the last weekly bar, the correction will be faster than if we don't.

Daily

https://www.tradingview.com/x/EXaniZXY/

The situation here is more interesting. All I want to see is to close the year inside this range, and at the opening of the year, by mid-January, to plunge into the 90k-85k range and there to start unwinding and liquidity flow into altcoins.

ETH

https://www.tradingview.com/x/Xx372HWj/

At the close of the month, we will form an imbalance within 3 months. I aim to take it off and from there take a long swing position and wait for 5000.

I'm not interested in how the month closes, as in January taking out the December loy + filling the imb = new high.

Weekly

https://www.tradingview.com/x/Ml4KWtTl/

Here the situation is different, I pay more attention to the monthly chart, but on the weekly chart, we can get accumulation and with the fall of BTC, liquidity can aggressively pour into etherium, which will not give such a strong decline for altcoins and ether, this range can hold. Well, and returning to the option above, it is a capture of imba, a possible test of 2814 and only then a flight to ATH.

Don't forget that all this can happen very quickly and you won't have time to react.

BTC.D

Weekly

https://www.tradingview.com/x/64ssr7E8/

Domination is feeling confident, I'm waiting for a reversal from current or a high update and the start of the alt season.

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