Weekly plan - 13.11-17.11.2023
Macro
Next week brings important data on consumer and manufacturing inflation. Retail Sales, the New York State Manufacturing Index and Jobless Claims will be released along with this data.
Tuesday
USD (U.S. Dollar) / Core CPI m/m - 3:30 p.m.
Change in Core CPI for the month.
TheUS Federal Bureau of Statistics releases the Core CPI every month, about 16 days after the end of the previous month. The calculation is based on the prices of consumer goods, excluding energy and food (Core).
Energy and food prices are considered to be very volatile and take up 1/4 of the index. For this reason, economists use the Core index for a more accurate measurement.
Consumer prices account for most of the inflation, as people are the main buyers of goods. This is a very important macroeconomic parameter and indicator, as it is the last in the chain of inflation and shows the real situation in the economy.
Inflation is dangerous because money is constantly depreciating. This causes very big economic and social problems, which, with uncontrolled growth, can even lead to civil conflicts and wars. This has already happened in history. That is why the government is watching this parameter very closely and doing everything possible to influence the price growth.
At the moment, the Fed is making every effort to curb the growth of inflation. The main tool is the increase in refinancing rates. The higher the rate, the higher the borrowing and lending. Expensive loans and borrowing - people can't buy new goods, houses, cars. Lack of great demand for goods - manufacturers make fewer orders, do not increase production capacity and thus do not increase prices at their level.
All of this should lower overall inflation and bring the system to a stable state. So far, the Fed has been doing well, but new problems keep popping up and the tools to influence the situation are unfortunately limited.
The latest actual rate (0.3%) was equal to the forecast (0.3%).
The current market forecast is 0.3%.
You can read more here.
USD (US Dollar) / CPI m/m - 15:30
Monthly change in the Consumer Price Index.
TheUS Federal Bureau of Statistics releases the Consumer Price Index every month, about 16 days after the end of the previous month. The calculation is based on the prices of consumer goods, including energy and food prices.
Since the index includes energy and food prices, it is more realistic and closer to ordinary people. The dependence of prices on energy costs has been described above.
In the USA, the infrastructure of cities is built in such a way that it is very difficult to get around without a car. The public transportation system there is not as well developed as in European cities. For this reason, the cost of fuel used to refuel their cars is very important for ordinary citizens. The same can be said about nutrition.
When all of this is taken into account, as with the example of comparing Core PPI and PPI, a very large volatility in performance is created. If you look at it from an academic point of view, it is superfluous information that doesn't play a role and it is smoothed out. If you look at it from a consumer point of view, this extra information is everything. Today you fill up a liter of gasoline for 55 hryvnias, tomorrow for 70, the day after tomorrow for 90, and in a week for 60. Not a very calm situation for an ordinary person.
The last actual figure (0.4%) was slightly higher than the forecast (0.3%).
The current market forecast is 0.1%.
You can read more here.
USD (US Dollar) / CPI y/y - 15:30
Year-over-year change in the Consumer Price Index.
TheUS Federal Bureau of Statistics releases the Consumer Price Index every month, about 16 days after the end of the previous month. Consumer prices are calculated based on the prices of consumer goods, including energy and food prices.
The index is annualized. It is widely used in the media, as it is easier to explain for ordinary people. A large number of instruments related to social security and insurance are calculated on the basis of this index.
The last actual index (3.7%) turned out to be higher than forecasted (3.6%).
The current market forecast is 3.3%.
You can read more here.
Wednesday
USD (US Dollar) / Core PPI m/m - 15:30
Core PPI monthly change.
The US Federal Bureau of Statistics releases the Core PPI every month, about 13 days after the end of the previous month. For the calculation, prices are taken by major sectors of the economy, as well as by stages of production.
Core - a variant of the index calculation, which does not take into account energy and food prices. It is used for "smoothing" the index and operational monitoring of price changes.
Energy is the most important sector of the modern economy. Energy is used to produce goods, to move transportation that moves produced goods, to light streets, to heat houses and much, much more.
The higher the price of energy, the higher the price of all other aspects of life. Rising/falling prices cascade down a long chain, affecting the prices of everything else.
Food is the most important component in human life. Without quality nutrition, a person cannot exist. Today, most of the food produced is done by machines. Raw materials are sown and harvested using specialized machines. It is then processed in factories by specialized machines. Energy binds this whole process together, as neither machines nor machines will work without energy - fuel and electricity obtained in various ways.
Since this is a basic element of human survival, the higher the prices of products, the faster they rise - people buy products en masse, fearing shortages and everything else.
In order to "smooth" the price growth, economists went for a trick and made an additional parameter that does not take into account energy and food prices. Even without taking these prices into account, in any case they indirectly affect everything because of their importance.
The producer price index is an important parameter that shows how prices change on the production side. Before a product hits the store shelves where people buy it, the product has to be produced. This is a whole chain of stages where raw materials are gradually processed into a product.
All these stages and transformations require different goods, equipment and so on. If prices increase at each of these stages - it affects the cost of the final product.
When a manufacturer realizes that the cost of his product is constantly increasing, he is left with two options for further pricing of the finished product:
- Either reduce his margins. In simpler terms, start selling the product at a loss, and therefore earn less.
- Or increase the cost of the product itself. In this case, the end buyer pays for the increase in production prices.
I think you realize that producers most often choose the second option. Therefore, the parameter of producer price growth actively influences the growth of commodity prices and consumer inflation.
The core producer price index has been in a downtrend for a year. More often than not, the actual change coincides with the predicted change.
After the COVID-19 lockdowns, which caused a large number of businesses to close and disrupted logistics, producer prices rose sharply. The main factor was that direct-to-consumer businesses were placing large numbers of orders because the goods were simply not reaching warehouses.
For example, you wanted to order 10 cars. You placed the order, 1 arrived due to logistical problems. So to solve this problem, you made multiple orders to dial those 10 cars up bit by bit. This caused a huge strain on the companies.
They had to work harder, order more raw materials and components for production to meet this demand. However, people are on lockdown, there are also difficulties with raw materials, as there are disruptions in logistics, and the enterprises supplying raw materials are also partially in lockdown and also have problems with logistics at their level. Vicious circle.
As soon as the supply problem started to be solved, prices started to come down.
The latest release of the actual rate (0.3%) was just above the forecast (0.2%).
The current market forecast is 0.3%.
You can read more here.
USD (US Dollar) / PPI m/m - 15:30
Producer Price Index change for the month.
TheUS Federal Bureau of Statistics releases the Producer Price Index every month, about 13 days after the end of the previous month. The index takes prices by major sectors of the economy as well as by stage of production.
This type of index takes into account energy and food prices, showing a more realistic picture of the current situation.
Why producer prices are so important is described above. We would like to discuss separately why the pure index is so important, without removing prices convenient for statistics.
When working with data, they are easy to manipulate. The reason for manipulation is most often an attempt to fit reality to one's model, and to say that the people in charge are good, they are doing everything right and everything will be fine.
As it was described above, energy is the main indicator influencing everything. So trying to reduce the weight of this indicator just doesn't show the reality.
Just compare a graph of Core PPI and PPI, how beautiful Core PPI is and how volatile PPI is. That's all the manipulation in action.
The latest release of the actual index (0.5%) was higher than the forecast (0.3%).
The current market forecast is 0.1%
You can read more here.
USD (US Dollar) / Core Retail Sales m/m - 15:30
Change in Core Retail Sales for the month.
TheU.S. Census Bureau releases monthly data on the change in Core Retail Sales for the month.
To calculate the Core, the data excluding auto sales is taken. Statistically, automobile sales account for about 20% of retail sales. Car prices are constantly changing due to strong demand and therefore create a lot of volatility.
As described in past reviews, economists try to fit any situation to a model. Volatility can create problems for these models, so they remove the volatile component from the calculation.
The retail sales baseline is very important because it is the first in the chain to determine consumer demand.
The more people buy goods, the less they become available in store warehouses. In order to supply the demand, stores start to order more and more goods from enterprises. Enterprises begin to actively purchase raw materials to produce these goods.
If people buy less goods, the stocks in the stores' warehouses remain and there is no point in making a new order to the enterprise. The chain that creates a positive impact on the economy does not work.
With the help of the retail sales indicator a large number of statistics are calculated, on the basis of which further decisions on the work of enterprises and government agencies are made.
At the moment, the main task of the Fed is to reduce inflation as carefully as possible. That's why the declining retail sales figure is a short-term positive, saying that the impact is working and they will reach the 2% inflation target in the long run.
The last release of the actual figure (0.6%) was higher than the forecast (0.2%).
The current market forecast is -0.2%.
More details can be found here.
USD (US Dollar) / Retail Sales m/m - 15:30
Retail Sales Change for the month.
TheU.S. Census Bureau releases monthly data on the monthly change in Retail Sales.
To calculate the index, the data is taken into account the sales of automobiles. Statistically, automobile sales account for about 20% of retail sales. Car prices are constantly changing due to strong demand and therefore create a lot of volatility.
As described in past reviews, cars are a very important part of American life because the infrastructure is very spread out geographically and the transportation system is not as developed as in Europe.
Underreporting real statistics is not a good thing, but when compared to inflation and core inflation (CPI and Core CPI / PCE and Core PCE), car sales are not as important as rising food and energy prices.
You can not change a car for a long time and still own it. However, the car market in the US runs on credit. Mostly people do not fully own cars, but take it on lease or loan. After a certain period of use, they do not pay off the full loan for the current car change it and reallocate the loan to a new car. For this reason, the global aftermarket is filled with cars from the USA.
The impact on car sales is a decrease in the activity of dealers, manufacturers and banking institutions issuing car loans. The auto industry generates 3% of US GDP and creates actual and indirect jobs for 10 million people.
The latest release of the actual rate (0.7%) was higher than the forecast (0.3%).
The current market forecast is -0.3%.
More details can be found here.
USD (US Dollar) / Empire State Manufacturing Index - 15:30
New York State Manufacturing Index.
TheFederal Reserve Bank of New York releases the Empire State Manufacturing Index on a monthly basis. The index is based on a survey of manufacturing companies on business conditions, employment, shipments and new orders.
New York State is the fourth largest state in terms of population (20 million) and the third largest in terms of contribution to the nation's GDP ($2.05 trillion). No matter what anyone says about the US being the world's largest consumer (trade deficit of $948.1 billion), manufacturing is still very strong. There are a large number of local brands covering almost all the needs of citizens.
It is for this reason that production data are very important and can say a lot about the future dynamics of the economy as a whole. Since the basic element in the production of goods is enterprises, they react best and fastest to changes in economic conditions. For the entire 23rd year, the indicator was most often in the area of strong negativity, with small positive changes. Since the beginning of the summer, the dynamics began to improve, the actual indicators were better than predicted.
The latest release of the actual indicator (-4.6) was more positive than the forecasted one (-6.4).
The current market forecast is -2.7.
More details can be found here.
Thursday
USD (US Dollar) / Unemployment Claims - 15:30
Unemployment Claims.
TheUS Department of Labor releases weekly claims data. The indicator is based on the citizens who applied for unemployment benefits for the first time in the last week.
The indicator is very important because it shows the strength/weakness of the labor market. If people are employed, they receive wages and consume services/goods. This can influence the rise in consumer inflation.
At the moment, the Fed is actively fighting inflation. A strong labor market indicates to the central bank that the economy is holding up and the current inflation situation will continue.
The more jobless claims, the better for the Fed's actions. The fewer jobless claims, the worse for the Fed's actions - they have to raise the rate even more.
The latest release of the figure (217K) was slightly higher than projected (218K). The labor market remains stable, although it is slowing down. Therefore, there is no particular negative impact on the increase in unemployment.
The current market forecast is 222 thousand.
You can read more here.
FX
DXY
H4
https://www.tradingview.com/x/V2AwlM2q/
Last week brought DXY back to the consolidation boundaries, but the price has not yet reached its OB and Volume Imbalance zones of interest. In terms of higher timeframes there are no special changes - the price has been in a sideways movement since the beginning of October. Taking into account the economic news this week, we expect Wednesday's upward movement to the Volume Imbalance zone with the subsequent reversal and continuation of the downward movement. This scenario is the most acceptable, however, since we are in the consolidation phase, the price may quietly go to renew the October highs. In general, we consider two profiles:
1) Classic Sell Week with the high of the week on Tuesday
2) Wednesday Weekly Reversal with the high of the week on Wednesday.
EURUSD
H4
https://www.tradingview.com/x/jxcv3HLW/
The situation with EURUSD is identical - the narrative of the senior timeframes remains unchanged. Now the currency pair is in the Premium zone and has reached the target in the form of Mitigation + FF, but we will expect a deeper correction to the OTE zone, where there is OB + FVG (BISI) from the daily timeframe, indicated in the last analysis. Overall, the scenario mirrors DXY:
1) Classic Buy Week with a weekly low on Tuesday
2) Wednesday Weekly Reversal with a weekly low on Wednesday
GBPUSD
H4
https://www.tradingview.com/x/bmDHqhyT/
The GBPUSD currency pair chart looks a bit different. In contrast to EUR and DXY - GBP has entered a deeper correction, having formed a rascorrelation in the form of SMT. At the moment the price is in the zone of interest, indicated during the last analysis (FF + MT). There is an internal SSL under this zone of interest, but taking into account the SMT, the probability of its removal decreases. We assume that the pound will be a bit weaker on the move and will exit in the upward direction without removing this SSL pool. The target will be the zone of interest in the form of FVG (SIBI) indicated on the chart.
SP500
Weekly
https://www.tradingview.com/x/3O2tnbOB/
Daily
https://www.tradingview.com/x/EwdnMYYV/
H4
https://www.tradingview.com/x/fzgmCNcd/
Last week the SP500 index worked out our analytics in a perfectly accurate way, fully fulfilling the MMBM model, where it took off BSL (OC) on Friday. The situation for the current week is ambiguous - after sharp impulsive news movements, we dare to assume a possible consolidation with a potential upside exit in the Full Fill zone of the weekly FVG(SIBI).
NQ100
H4
https://www.tradingview.com/x/BTtV5g4M/
The NQ100 index has a similar situation. After reacting to the 0.5 month FVG (BISI), we saw an impulsive upward reaction with a target to remove the BSL (OC), which the price did last week as we expected. In general, the movement of indices at the current moment of time is the most technical in terms of analysis and opening positions, as the price has reached FVG (SIBI) and the manipulation zone - we assume a transition to consolidation with the same potential exit in the upward direction.
For both indices we consider two scenarios:
1) Wednesday Weekly Reversal with a low on Wednesday
2) Consolidated Thursday Reversal with sideways movement and a low on Thursday.
Crypto
BTC/USDT
1M BTC
https://www.tradingview.com/x/r3vK44gE/
Nothing has changed from the last review - upward volleys continued, but now I am more focused on consolidation, we will talk about it below, and now I am just waiting for a test of the 40000 range, within the direction of the senior context.
1W BTC
https://www.tradingview.com/x/ChpWEZo0/
Price has entered the FTA and plans to close the weekly bar there. I'm putting the focus on the formation of the rentge, where profits will be distributed and further flow into altcoins. There is nothing to add here, because after the end of the spillover we can expect the end, but we will talk about it in other issues.
1D BTC
https://www.tradingview.com/x/XsQd2PLE/
Within the daily context for me the price has completed its upward breakout, however, we must realize that any pump in the current phase does not possess a problem, so from this moment I stop watching price ranges, levels, liquidity zones and want to see the formation of the pattern I drew in the right part of the chart, nothing else is needed.
4H BTC
https://www.tradingview.com/x/IOxGfV74/
Agree that we are too similar to the fractal that is on the right side of the chart and there is a chance that we will just continue to rise on the back of a test of levels that are higher.
The younger the time period the more it contradicts the older one, against this background I want to conclude my thoughts on BTC - within a month it will be unnecessary for analysis and trading as the main muv is done and the asset needs time treatment for further trading.
BTC.D & ETH.D & TOTAL
https://www.tradingview.com/x/V9EgpNVf/
There are no changes here, it remains to wait for the continuation of correction. The main price is not to catch demand in the near future.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/6LKCHn5J/
I can't comment anything here, as I have to wait until the weekly bar closes to take any action. The bounce was great, but the downturn is coming. It will be great if we can jump under the close of the week.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/IOObVnLZ/
TOTAL1 is breaking through ceilings - I'm waiting for an approach into the 0.5 range of my POI here.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/n4C7iMoT/
TOTAL2 - here it is very important for me to keep the close of the week above the level, as it only shows altcoin volume , excluding ETH, and this will be an important factor for a jump up in altcoins.
ETH/USDT
ETH 1M
https://www.tradingview.com/x/PA3I1q3e/
Regarding how TOTALS look I am expecting a jump to 2300 on the ether with an imbalance overlap.
ETH 1W
https://www.tradingview.com/x/M1m31rJS/
Here I'm waiting for ether to hold above 2031.6 and not take out 2160.0 prematurely as this could increase the wait time to deliver price into my zones of interest.
ETH 1D
https://www.tradingview.com/x/blWICdPd/
Nothing has changed from the last review except that price has come into the first area, the remainder over 2300.
ETH 4H
https://www.tradingview.com/x/v6dEDGPd/
Everything is simple here - after the local break the priority to open long positions, there is nothing to add.
ETH/BTC
ETH 1W
https://www.tradingview.com/x/8BJKdIAD/
So far everything is according to plan here - one of the zones has worked out, the main thing is to see a positive closing of the week for a mini breakout.
Bonus ALTS
ROSE
1W CHART
https://www.tradingview.com/x/XrqjTtsm/
Abrupt approach and consolidation before the equals, which may lead to a more explosive reaction.
4H CHART
https://www.tradingview.com/x/IXcBq2OP/
We have a chance for an exit from current or through another manipulation.
Crypto News
