Weekly Plan 11.12-15.12.2023
Macro
Next week sees the release of a very large number of indicators related to consumer and manufacturing inflation, the Fed and ECB refinancing rate, retail sales, and the state of the manufacturing and service sectors.
It's a very nuclear week, but it's not all bad. The most volatile indicators are released on Wednesday and Thursday. Be very careful!
Tuesday
USD (U.S. Dollar) / Core CPI m/m - 15:30
The change in the Core CPI for the month.
TheUS Federal Bureau of Statistics releases the Core CPI every month, about 16 days after the end of the previous month. The calculation is based on the prices of consumer goods, excluding energy and food (Core).
It is considered that energy and food prices are very volatile and take up only 1/4 of the whole index. For this reason, economists use the Core index for more accurate measurement.
Consumer prices account for most of the inflation, as people are the main buyers of goods. This is a very important macroeconomic parameter and indicator, which is the last in the chain of inflation and shows the real situation in the economy.
Inflation is dangerous because money is constantly depreciating. This causes very big economic and social problems, which, with uncontrolled growth, can even lead to civil conflicts and wars. This has already happened in history. That is why the government is watching this parameter very closely and doing everything possible to influence the price growth.
At the moment, the Fed is making every effort to curb the growth of inflation. The main tool is the increase in refinancing rates. The higher the rate, the higher the borrowing and lending. Expensive loans and borrowing - people can't buy new goods, houses, cars. Lack of great demand for goods - manufacturers make fewer orders, do not increase production capacity and thus do not increase prices at their level.
All of this should lower overall inflation and bring the system to a stable state. So far, the Fed has been doing well, but new problems keep popping up. The tools to influence the situation are unfortunately limited.
The latest actual rate (0.2%) was lower than the forecast (0.3%).
The current market forecast is 0.3%.

You can read more here.
USD (US Dollar) / CPI m/m - 15:30
Monthly change in the Consumer Price Index.
TheUS Federal Bureau of Statistics releases the Consumer Price Index every month, about 16 days after the end of the previous month. The calculation is based on the prices of consumer goods, including energy and food prices.
Since the index includes energy and food prices, it is more realistic and closer to ordinary people. The dependence of prices on energy costs has been described above.
In the USA, the infrastructure of cities is built in such a way that it is very difficult to get around without a car. The public transportation system there is not as well developed as in European cities. For this reason, the cost of fuel used to refuel their cars is very important for ordinary citizens. The same can be said about nutrition.
When all of this is taken into account, as with the example of comparing Core PPI and PPI, a very large volatility in performance is created. If you look at it from an academic point of view, it is superfluous information that doesn't play a role and it is smoothed out. If you look at it from a consumer point of view, this extra information is everything. Today you fill up a liter of gasoline for 55 hryvnias, tomorrow for 70, the day after tomorrow for 90, and in a week for 60. Not a very calm situation for an ordinary person.
The latest actual rate (0.0%) was slightly lower than the forecasted rate (0.1%).
The current market forecast is 0.0%.

You can read more here.
USD (US Dollar) / CPI y/y - 15:30
Year-over-year change in the Consumer Price Index.
TheUS Federal Bureau of Statistics releases the Consumer Price Index every month, about 16 days after the end of the previous month. Consumer prices are calculated based on the prices of consumer goods, including energy and food prices.
The index is annualized. It is widely used in the media, as it is easier to explain for ordinary people. A large number of instruments related to social security and insurance are calculated on the basis of this index.
The last actual index (3.2%) was lower than the forecast (3.3%).
The current market forecast is 3.1%.

You can read more here.
Wednesday
USD (US Dollar) / Core PPI m/m - 15:30
Core PPI monthly change.
The US Federal Bureau of Statistics releases the Core PPI every month, about 13 days after the end of the previous month. For the calculation, prices are taken by major sectors of the economy, as well as by stages of production.
Core - a variant of the index calculation, which does not take into account energy and food prices. It is used for "smoothing" the index and operational monitoring of price changes.
Energy is the most important sector of the modern economy. Energy is used to produce goods, to move transportation that moves produced goods, to light streets, to heat houses and much, much more.
The higher the price of energy, the higher the price of all other aspects of life. Rising/falling prices cascade down a long chain, affecting the prices of everything else.
Food is the most important component in human life. Without quality nutrition, a person cannot exist. Today, most of the food produced is done by machines. Raw materials are sown and harvested using specialized machines. It is then processed in factories by specialized machines. Energy binds this whole process together, as neither machines nor machines will work without energy - fuel and electricity obtained in various ways.
Since this is a basic element of human survival, the higher the prices of products, the faster they rise - people buy products en masse, fearing shortages and everything else.
In order to "smooth" the price growth, economists went for a trick and made an additional parameter that does not take into account energy and food prices. Even without taking these prices into account, in any case they indirectly affect everything because of their importance.
The producer price index is an important parameter that shows how prices change on the production side. Before a product hits the store shelves where people buy it, the product has to be produced. This is a whole chain of stages where raw materials are gradually processed into a product.
All these stages and transformations require different goods, equipment and so on. If prices increase at each of these stages - it affects the cost of the final product.
When a manufacturer realizes that the cost of his product is constantly increasing, he is left with two options for further pricing of the finished product:
- Either reduce his margins. In simpler terms, start selling the product at a loss, and therefore earn less.
- Or increase the cost of the product itself. In this case, the end buyer pays for the increase in production prices.
I think you realize that producers most often choose the second option. Therefore, the parameter of producer price growth actively influences the growth of commodity prices and consumer inflation.
The core producer price index has been in a downtrend for a year. More often than not, the actual change coincides with the predicted change.
After the COVID-19 lockdowns, which caused a large number of businesses to close and disrupted logistics, producer prices rose sharply. The main factor was that direct-to-consumer businesses were placing large numbers of orders because the goods were simply not reaching warehouses.
For example, you wanted to order 10 cars. You placed the order, 1 arrived due to logistical problems. So to solve this problem, you made multiple orders to dial those 10 cars up bit by bit. This caused a huge strain on the companies.
They had to work harder, order more raw materials and components for production to meet this demand. However, people are on lockdown, there are also difficulties with raw materials, as there are disruptions in logistics, and the enterprises supplying raw materials are also partially in lockdown and also have problems with logistics at their level. Vicious circle.
As soon as the supply problem started to be solved, prices started to come down.
The latest release of the actual rate (0.0%) was below the forecast (0.3%).
The current market forecast is 0.2%.

You can read more here.
USD (US Dollar) / PPI m/m - 15:30
Producer Price Index change for the month.
TheUS Federal Bureau of Statistics releases the Producer Price Index every month, about 13 days after the end of the previous month. The index takes prices by major sectors of the economy as well as by stage of production.
This type of index takes into account energy and food prices, showing a more realistic picture of the current situation.
Why producer prices are so important is described above. We would like to discuss separately why the pure index is so important, without removing prices convenient for statistics.
When working with data, they are easy to manipulate. The reason for manipulation is most often an attempt to fit reality to one's model, and to say that the people in charge are good, they are doing everything right and everything will be fine.
As it was described above, energy is the main indicator influencing everything. So trying to reduce the weight of this indicator just doesn't show the reality.
Just compare a graph of Core PPI and PPI, how beautiful Core PPI is and how volatile PPI is. That's all the manipulation in action.
The latest release of the actual index (-0.5%) was below the forecast (0.1%).
The current market forecast is 0.1%

You can read more here.
USD (US Dollar) / Federal Funds Rate - 21:00
The main refinancing rate in the United States (Fed).
TheFed is voting on future actions with the refinancing rate.
The refinancing rate is the most important parameter affecting liquidity in the financial system. Depending on the size of the lending rate, credit rates for companies and consumers are affected.
Banks can borrow funds from the central bank at the current lending rate. In order to make money, they charge their interest and lend to companies and consumers. The higher the rate, the more interest companies and consumers must pay on the loan.
The refinancing rate is the most important tool to fight inflation. Without exotic influences (logistical collapse under Covid-19 and supply chain disruptions), inflation rises from increasing consumer demand. Companies start producing more and more to meet demand, while prices also rise. As companies start ordering more and more raw materials to produce, raw material prices also increase. A spiral of constantly rising prices is created.
Similar to a fire, you have to reduce the oxygen supply and the fire will start to shrink. The more expensive it becomes to get money, the less people start buying goods, the less businesses produce and the less the cost of raw materials increases.
Because of the problems with the heavy debt load, increasing the refinancing rate becomes an increasingly dangerous tool. However, the inflation situation may be improving, but the problems remain. For this reason, the rate is likely to remain at the same level.
The current market forecast is 5.5%.

You can read more here.
USD (US Dollar) / FOMC Economic Projections - 21:00
FOMC Economic Projections.
The Fed publishes its macroeconomic projections once a quarter. This is very important information, as it gives an idea about the current assessment of the situation and future actions of the Fed.


USD (US Dollar) / FOMC Statement - 21:00
Fed's Monetary Policy Statement.
In the statement, the FOMC describes the current state of the economy, the Fed's outlook on the economic situation and monetary policy.
USD (US Dollar) / FOMC Press Conference - 21:30
Fed Chairman Jerome Powell Press Conference.
Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will be answering questions from economists and journalists during the press conference after the announcement of the monetary policy decision.
A very important event, because in his speech the head of the central bank may mention information about future actions to change the refinancing rate.
Anexample of such a speech.
Thursday
EUR (Euro) / Main Refinancing Rate - 15:15
Main Refinancing Rate in the Eurozone (ECB).
TheECB is voting on future actions with the refinancing rate. Six members of the ECB's Executive Board and 15 of the 19 governors of the euro area central banks are voting on how to set the rate.
The refinancing rate is the most important parameter affecting liquidity in the financial system. Depending on the size of the lending rate, the lending rates for companies and consumers depend on it.
Banks can borrow funds from the central bank at the current lending rate. In order to make money, they charge their interest and lend to companies and consumers. The higher the rate, the more interest the companies and consumers have to pay on the loan.
The refinancing rate is the most important tool to fight inflation. Without exotic influences (logistical collapse under Covid-19 and supply chain disruptions), inflation rises from increasing consumer demand. Companies start producing more and more to meet demand, while prices also rise. As companies start ordering more and more raw materials to produce, raw material prices also increase. A spiral of constantly rising prices is created.
Similar to a fire, you have to reduce the oxygen supply and the fire will start to shrink. The more expensive it becomes to get money, the less people start buying goods, the less businesses produce, and the less the cost of raw materials increases.
Further increases are unlikely because the economy is getting worse.
The current market forecast is 4.5%.

You can read more here.
EUR (Euro) / Monetary Policy Statement - 15:15
ECB Monetary Policy Statement.
In the statement, the ECB describes the current state of the economy, the ECB's forecasts for the economic situation and monetary policy.
USD (US Dollar) / Core Retail Sales m/m - 15:30
Change in underlying retail sales for the month.
TheU.S. Census Bureau releases monthly data on the change in Core Retail Sales for the month.
To calculate the Core, the data excluding auto sales is used. Statistically, automobile sales account for about 20% of retail sales. Car prices are constantly changing due to strong demand and therefore create a lot of volatility.
As described in past reviews, economists try to fit any situation to a model. Volatility can create problems for these models, so they remove the volatile component from the calculation.
The retail sales baseline is very important because it is the first in the chain to determine consumer demand.
The more people buy goods, the less they become available in store warehouses. In order to supply the demand, stores start to order more and more goods from enterprises. Enterprises begin to actively purchase raw materials to produce these goods.
If people buy less goods, the stocks in the stores' warehouses remain and there is no point in making a new order to the enterprise. The chain that creates a positive impact on the economy does not work.
With the help of the retail sales indicator a large number of statistics are calculated, on the basis of which further decisions on the work of enterprises and government agencies are made.
At the moment, the main task of the Fed is to reduce inflation as carefully as possible. That's why the declining retail sales figure is a short-term positive, saying that the impact is working and they will reach the 2% inflation target in the long run.
The last release of the actual figure (0.1%) was higher than the forecast (-0.1%).
The current market forecast is -0.1%.

More details can be found here.
USD (US Dollar) / Retail Sales m/m - 15:30
Retail Sales Change for the month.
TheU.S. Census Bureau releases monthly data on the monthly change in Retail Sales.
To calculate the index, the data is taken into account the sales of automobiles. Statistically, automobile sales account for about 20% of retail sales. Car prices are constantly changing due to strong demand and therefore create a lot of volatility.
As described in past reviews, cars are a very important part of American life because the infrastructure is very spread out geographically and the transportation system is not as developed as in Europe.
Underreporting real statistics is not a good thing, but when compared to inflation and core inflation (CPI and Core CPI / PCE and Core PCE), car sales are not as important as rising food and energy prices.
You can not change a car for a long time and still own it. However, the car market in the US runs on credit. Mostly people do not fully own cars, but take it on lease or loan. After a certain period of use, they do not pay off the full loan for the current car change it and reallocate the loan to a new car. For this reason, the global aftermarket is filled with cars from the USA.
The impact on car sales is a decrease in the activity of dealers, manufacturers and banking institutions issuing car loans. The auto industry generates 3% of US GDP and creates actual and indirect jobs for 10 million people.
The latest release of the actual figure (-0.1%) was higher than the forecast (-0.3%).
The current market forecast is -0.1%.

More details can be found here.
USD (US Dollar) / Unemployment Claims - 15:30
Unemployment Claims.
TheUS Department of Labor releases weekly claims data. The indicator is based on the citizens who applied for unemployment benefits for the first time in the last week.
The indicator is very important because it shows the strength/weakness of the labor market. If people are employed, they earn wages and consume services and goods. This can influence the rise in consumer inflation.
At the moment, the Fed is actively fighting inflation. A strong labor market indicates to the central bank that the economy is holding up and the current inflation situation will continue.
The more jobless claims, the better for the Fed's actions. The fewer jobless claims, the worse for the Fed's actions - they have to raise the rate even more.
The latest release of the figure (220K) was just slightly below the forecast (221K). The labor market remains stable, albeit slowing. Therefore, there is no particular increase in unemployment.
The current market forecast is 223 thousand.

You can read more here.
EUR (Euro) / ECB Press Conference - 15:45
Press conference of the ECB President and Vice President.
ECB President Christine Lagarde will take questions from economists and journalists during a press conference after announcing the monetary policy decision.
Anexample of such a speech.
Friday
EUR (Euro) / French Flash Manufacturing PMI - 10:15 am
Preliminary index of business activity in the French manufacturing sector.
S&P Global conducts a monthly survey among purchasing managers. Managers are asked to answer questions related to current inventories in the company's warehouses, the number of new requests for replenishment of warehouses, new orders and their prices, as well as employment in the company, the workload of production and the current business conditions.
Flash is a preliminary index that is refined a week later in the Finale (final) version. More often than not, the Finale version does not make many adjustments, so the focus is always on the preliminary (earliest) index.
Production is one of the basic elements of any economy and is at the very beginning of the chain of creating goods that are then consumed by people. Since every manufacturer is a professional in their industry, they actively monitor market demand and understand the current market trend.
If a manufacturer sees a deteriorating market situation, it makes no sense for them to load production capacity, invest in new facilities and hiring, and purchase new raw materials. A large number of related very important elements of the economy suffer, such as the labor market, consumption, construction and many others.
France is Europe's second economy and a major exporter of goods. It is very important to keep an eye on producer sentiment as France is a major contributor to the EU's supply of goods.
Producer sentiment has been falling since the beginning of 2023. Very high refinancing rates are to blame, businesses cannot raise capital for active production. The further they raise/hold the rate, the more the manufacturing sector will stagnate, affecting the economy as a whole.
The latest actual rate (42.6) was worse than forecasts (43.2). The EU economy is more strongly tied to the refinancing rate indicator than the US economy. The high rate has been regularly raised by the ECB, which has caused aggravation and recession in the economy. Until businesses can borrow at a lower interest rate, the recession will continue.
The current market forecast is 43.3.

You can read more here.
EUR (Euro) / French Flash Services PMI - 10:15 am
Preliminary French Flash Services PMI.
S&P Global conducts a monthly survey among purchasing managers. Managers are asked to answer questions related to new orders and their prices, employment, workload and current business conditions.
Flash - preliminary index, which is refined a week later in Finale (final) version. More often than not, the final version does not make any particular adjustments, so the focus is always on the preliminary (earliest) index.
The service sector is the most important element of the modern economy of any country, making a large contribution to GDP. A large number of population works in services and most of the consumer demand is accumulated in them. As the service sector is not so strongly tied to serious capital investments, it is less tied to credit rates for attracting new capital investments.
If a company sees the economy deteriorating, it makes no sense for it to make active plans for growth. The service sector is very much tied to the income of the population. If people will buy food and clothes anyway, they are likely to postpone going on vacation or subscribing to a new resource.
The last actual indicator (45.3) turned out to be slightly lower than the forecasted one (45.6).
The current market forecast is 46.1.

You can read more here.
EUR (Euro) / German Flash Manufacturing PMI - 10:30 PM
Preliminary index of business activity in the manufacturing sector in France.
S&P Global conducts a monthly survey among purchasing managers. Managers are asked to answer questions related to current inventories in the company's warehouses, the number of new requests for replenishment of warehouses, new orders and their prices, as well as employment in the company, the workload of production and the current business conditions.
Flash is a preliminary index that is refined a week later in the Finale (final) version. More often than not, the final version does not make any particular adjustments, so the focus is always on the preliminary (earliest) index.
Germany is the first economy in Europe and the third largest exporter of goods in the world. The country is a major center of mechanical engineering and chemical industry. Unlike France, which is the second country in terms of nuclear power plants, Germany has gone for green energy and is very dependent on natural gas. After the outbreak of war in Ukraine, Germany drastically cut gas supplies from Russia, which hit the manufacturing sector very hard.
Manufacturers' sentiment has been falling since March 2021. There were a few positive spikes in the index, but the decline has continued.
In addition to the energy problems, refinancing rates are also superimposed. The further they raise/hold the rate, the more the manufacturing sector will stagnate, affecting the economy as a whole.
The latest actual rate (42.3) was better than projected (41.1). A high refinancing rate worsens the possibility of profitable capital investment, as long as the situation continues, the manufacturing sector will stagnate.
The current market forecast is 43.1.

You can read more here.
EUR (Euro) / German Flash Services PMI - 10:30 PM
Preliminary German Flash Services PMI.
S&P Global conducts a monthly survey among purchasing managers. Managers are asked to answer questions related to new orders and their prices, employment, workload and current business conditions.
Flash - preliminary index, which is refined a week later in Finale (final) version. More often than not, the Finale version does not make many adjustments, so the focus is always on the preliminary (earliest) index.
The latest actual index (48.7) was just above the predicted index (48.4). Since May 2023, the index has been on a downward trend, performing worse relative to the forecast almost every time.
The current market forecast is 49.9.

You can read more here.
USD (US Dollar) / Empire State Manufacturing Index - 15:30
New York State Manufacturing Index.
TheFederal Reserve Bank of New York releases the Empire State Manufacturing Index on a monthly basis. The index is based on a survey of manufacturing companies on business conditions, employment, shipments and new orders.
New York State is the fourth largest state in terms of population (20 million) and the third largest in terms of contribution to the nation's GDP ($2.05 trillion). No matter what anyone says about the US being the world's largest consumer (trade deficit of $948.1 billion), manufacturing is still very strong. There are a large number of localized brands covering almost all the needs of the citizens.
It is for this reason that manufacturing data is very important and can say a lot about the future dynamics of the economy as a whole. Since the basic element in the production of goods is enterprises, they are the best and fastest to react to changes in economic conditions. For the entire 23rd year, the indicator was most often in the area of strong negativity, with small positive changes. Since the beginning of the fall, the dynamics began to improve, the actual indicators were better than predicted.
The latest release of the actual indicator (9.1) turned out to be more positive than the forecasted one (-3.3).
The current market forecast is 1.7.

You can read more here.
USD (US Dollar) / Flash Manufacturing PMI - 16:45
The preliminary index of business activity in the US manufacturing sector.
S&P Global conducts a monthly survey among purchasing managers. Managers are asked to answer questions related to current inventories in the company's warehouses, the number of new requests for replenishment of warehouses, new orders and their prices, as well as employment in the company, the workload of production and current business conditions.
Flash is a preliminary index that is refined a week later in the Finale (final) version. More often than not, the Finale version makes few adjustments, so the focus is always on the preliminary (earliest) index.
There is a big misconception that the US can only consume and they don't create anything else. This is actually not true, the US is the second exporter of goods in the world. The country's geographical location forced it to develop its own production to meet its needs. Along with this, the US has a large amount of minerals on its territory, which additionally helps in the development of industry.
The USA is indeed the world's largest consumer, so much of the world economy depends on the conditions in the US market. The industry is very active in the local market, so it is a good indicator of future consumption.
The last actual indicator (49.4) turned out to be worse than forecasts (49.9).
The current market forecast is 49.3.

You can read more here.
USD (US Dollar) / Flash Services PMI - 16:45
Preliminary U.S. Flash Services PMI.
S&P Global conducts a monthly survey among purchasing managers. Managers are asked to answer questions related to new orders and their prices, employment, workload and current business conditions.
Flash - preliminary index, which is refined a week later in Finale (final) version. More often than not, the Finale version does not make many adjustments, so the focus is always on the preliminary (earliest) index.
The service sector takes a huge share of the US GDP, which is the reason why we still don't see labor market contractions. Services are not as dependent on capital investment as the manufacturing sector, which suffers from a high refinancing rate.
The latest actual rate (50.8) was higher than forecast (50.4).
The current market forecast is 50.5.

More details can be found here.
FX
DXY
Last week.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/SXMRknWY/

December opened relatively well and last week's analytics fully worked themselves out, bringing the price to the inefficiency zone of FVG(SIBI).
Weekly
https://www.tradingview.com/x/Z5WODIWO/

From the weekly timeframe the price is in the FVG(SIBI) inefficiency zone, which may indicate a downward reaction, but on the other hand we also formed a manipulation. The current week has the release of many important news events, in particular the latest interest rate data this year. The rate is generally expected to remain at the same level, which does not give us any context to look one way or the other. For this week, we are not forming any biases and remain in "observer" mode.
Daily
https://www.tradingview.com/x/e1p82JQc/

Regarding the daily timeframe, the situation is identical, both sides are working with liquidity and Order Flow. In such conditions it is hard to determine the future price context. In general, the price is expected to continue the upward movement to the "full-fill" zone FVG SIBI
EURUSD
Weekly
https://www.tradingview.com/x/jfDwktfY/

On the weekly chart of EURUSD we can notice price consolidation below FVG BISI, which forms Inversion FVG. Below there is an opening level OB. According to this chart, we can assume an upward movement up to the 50% I-FVG zone followed by a downward movement to the SSL level. However, based on the news events, this context will not be considered highly probable, for this reason this week should be traded carefully.
Daily
https://www.tradingview.com/x/tucLo33u/

The daily timeframe shows a clearer picture. We can see how Thursday broke the 50% FVG BISI level without consolidating above it, thus forming an OB on Friday's engulfment.
Thus we can safely argue for a continuation of the downtrend to the SSL zone. The downward scenario can be canceled by news factors or by reaching and consolidating the price above 1.0800.
This scenario on EURUSD can be a good factor to consider DXY in the long direction.
GBPUSD
Monthly
https://www.tradingview.com/x/z3NQnJD9/

At the current moment in time, the price has entered to balance the monthly Inversion FVG, after a successful reaction to the monthly OB. Overall, the current week will be fully working with this I-FVG.
Weekly
https://www.tradingview.com/x/oJ9h7bbK/

Upon testing the monthly OB, price forms a weekly OB, and we have a body consolidation at the lower boundary of the weekly I-FVG, which turns it into a balanced price range (BPR) that could act as a resistance zone for price. At the lower boundary of our major monthly I-FVG we have the weekly OB zone. Overall, we divide this I-FVG into quarters where we will expect price to work with them.
Daily
https://www.tradingview.com/x/Xth1GroK/

We expect price to continue its downward movement from the current zone, with targets at the 0.5 and 0.75 levels of the monthly I-FVG.
SP500
Daily
https://www.tradingview.com/x/FsfhudS2/

From a long-term perspective, we do not expect much change on the SP500 chart. The price continues to move in the upward OF with the goal of overlapping Volume Imbalance at the level of 4680. Presumably this two-week consolidation formed liquidity for the current events with the interest rate release and FOMC meeting. We believe that this week will reach the 4680 zone, where we may see a downside reversal during the meeting on Wednesday, followed by the removal of this consolidation.
NQ100
Daily
https://www.tradingview.com/x/CTpX860J/

The NQ100 index is once again forming a round-trip rally (SMT) with the SP500 index. We know that the previous weeks did not react much to the SMT, so we can omit this parameter in our analysis. In general, expectations are upward on the removal of the external BSL pool. We expect that the price will test VI and daily OB before the withdrawal of this pool, which will serve as a target for price delivery to BSL, tentatively on Wednesday or Thursday.
We do not recommend considering trading in all assets on Wednesday and Thursday, due to increased news volatility and market manipulativeness.
Crypto
BTC/USDT
1M BTC
https://www.tradingview.com/x/kphmjbTM/

Regarding the last review, the price has tested the first zone at 42000. Here we can get consolidation and fill 46300.
1W BTC
https://www.tradingview.com/x/ttH3HyOX/

As I said above, to start the correction and end the whole longing market for a short time, the price should enter a few days consolidation, which can take from 5 to 14 days, the longer the better, it is in such conditions altcoins will be able to end their longing cycles and start to correct.
1D BTC
https://www.tradingview.com/x/IkO3GaoG/

Nothing has changed since the last post and I expect one of the examples listed here, but let's move to the month of November:
Those who were attentive will remember that in November 19 I pointed out the fractal patterns of the BTC chart, which can completely repeat the narrative of the past years - the exit from consolidation by a relentless continuation of growth. https://s3.tradingview.com/snapshots/u/UYSJ2alU.png
4H BTC
https://www.tradingview.com/x/jxUH38qG/

There are too many market variations, so I will focus my attention on this consolidation and work with altcoins in case BTC GAP'a is reached. In the upper right corner I have indicated my target where I want to see BTC to work with swing shorts in the market.
BTC.D & ETH.D
https://www.tradingview.com/x/zQJ71jKc/

The reaction here is more aimed at longs, but if we don't see a pullback on the weekly chart, we are likely to see a good correction in the cryptocurrency market. So we give a good pullback to the downside and close the weekly bar in a shorting fashion, or we catch a bounce in domination and another 10-15% drop in altcoins.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/rKmAOVv6/

It's important for us to close above 453T. here, which we did, so I expect to see a temporary rebound in buying strength this week or next.
ETH/USDT
ETH 1M
https://www.tradingview.com/x/ZhpxC1NI/

All our targets have been met, I can now expect to see us fly towards 2500 on the back of strong demand for shorts. My bags of ether medium term prospects are empty, so nothing to add here.
ETH 1W
https://www.tradingview.com/x/9iAJZlkp/

Zones are all cleaned up, the gray area is where I expect ether to slow down and pullback to the 2030 area and below.
ETH 1D
https://www.tradingview.com/x/dbwXCjA5/

On the chart you can see an example of what I want the stage of development to be, however the length of the momentum will depend on the number of liquidations. If there is not much demand for shorts, the momentum will not be as high, but the downside narrative remains roughly the same.
ETH/BTC
ETH 1W
https://www.tradingview.com/x/nL2X6s8d/

Ether is weak so far, but it's a matter of time. Expectations are still for one of the options on the chart.
Cryptocurrency