Weekly plan - 05.08 - 09.08.2024

Macro

Next week sees the release of Eurozone inflation data, the labor market and the state of the US manufacturing sector. The Fed's credit rate meeting will take place.

Monday

USD (US Dollar) / ISM Services PMI - 17:00

Services Business Activity Index.

TheInstitute for Supply Management (ISM) conducts a monthly survey of purchasing managers. Managers are asked to answer questions related to new orders and their prices, factory employment, workload and current business conditions.

The service sector is the most important sector of the U.S. GDP, accounting for about 80% of the total GDP. Companies are keenly aware of market conditions and make business development plans on that basis.

If a company sees the economy deteriorating, it makes no sense for it to actively plan for growth. The service sector is very much tied to the income of the population. If people will buy food and clothes anyway, they will most likely postpone going on vacation or subscribing to a new resource.

Since the service sector is not so strongly tied to serious capital investments, it is less tied to the growth of prices for any raw materials. The service sector has the greatest impact on the current strength of the labor market.

The latest release of the indicator (48.8) was below the forecast (52.6).

The current market forecast is 51.4.

More details can be found here.

Thursday

USD (US Dollar) / Unemployment Claims - 3:30 PM

Unemployment Claims.

TheU.S. Department of Labor releases weekly claims data. The indicator is based on the citizens who applied for unemployment benefits for the first time in the last week.

The indicator is very important because it shows the strength/weakness of the labor market. If people are employed, they receive wages and consume services and goods. This can influence the rise in consumer inflation.

At the moment, the Fed is actively fighting inflation. A strong labor market indicates to the central bank that the economy is holding up and the current inflation situation will continue.

The more jobless claims, the better for the Fed's actions. The fewer jobless claims, the worse for the Fed's actions - they have to raise the rate even more.

The latest release of the figure (249K) was above the forecast (236K).

The current market forecast is 245 thousand.

You can read more here.

Crypto

BTC/USDT

Monthly

https://www.tradingview.com/x/C3vWB2zX/

As we can see, the situation has not changed since the last update, so we will not focus attention here.

Weekly

https://www.tradingview.com/x/NFraOjVQ/

Price has entered the 61k range, but most likely the weekly candle will absorb last week's candle, so I am targeting more accumulation here, without going below 53700.

Daily

https://www.tradingview.com/x/EtFTk6Jh/

We have a one stage turnaround, I am not looking at the others. I am interested in the price correction to POI and from there look for long positions on FCH, once the price reaches these marks, most likely the market will end collapse and calm will come.

ETH/USDT

Monthly

https://www.tradingview.com/x/450MLcrv/

This range is studded with a lot of demand, so the right decision is to wait for the price to fill, swinging.

Weekly

https://www.tradingview.com/x/bhvRykS9/

I believe a quarterly break is just around the corner, so what you see on the chart is sprinkled with limit orders in case of a plum, so you need to be ready to buy back the bottom that is coming soon.

Daily

https://www.tradingview.com/x/YCbM29Q6/

In the last review I bet that the price will hold the price from the first POI, but there was no demand, so we will get a good decline and work out the second scenario.

ETH/BTC

Weekly

https://www.tradingview.com/x/roIGPbEP/

In any case, whether it is a break or a hold, the market will get an outflow, of course I would like to see a hold because the market will show more persistence, but let's wait for the stage.

FX & Stock market

DXY

Weekly

https://www.tradingview.com/x/5MC18kAU/

Last week's macro indicators were downward for the DXY index, which, at the moment, gives us a clear further downward narrative. The first target will be the Internal SSL at 102.3.

Daily

https://www.tradingview.com/x/ODlXRUmw/

In terms of the daily timeframe, the index stopped in the FVG BISI zone, which may form a small correction to the level of 103.6, from where we can expect the continuation of the downward movement. The week is quite calm in terms of news events, so the movement is expected to be smooth, without sharp impulses. We advise to work from the level of 103.6 to the downside.

EURUSD

Weekly

https://www.tradingview.com/x/a9uiSfj0/

Last Friday on the back of NFP data release in the US - EURUSD showed an impulsive upward movement, after overlapping the GAP (BPR) zone as the main zone of interest. At the moment, this formation allows us to consider moves higher towards the BSL and the key major price target of 1.10.

Daily

https://www.tradingview.com/x/c60eNIsS/

On the daily timeframe we see that last week closed on a test of the removed June high, which in general can act as a zone of short-term resistance for the price. We assume a downward reaction to the price zone between 1.0870 and 1.0850, from where we should expect an upward movement.

GBPUSD

Weekly

https://www.tradingview.com/x/FL3LQWJe/

Unlike EURUSD, GBPUSD failed to impulsively move to the upside and at the moment the price is squeezed between two opposite zones of interest. On Friday the FVG BISI was tested, from which an upward movement was expected. However, the price bumped into Inversion FVG in the context of removed Internal BSL levels, which is a problematic zone. At the moment the narrative is difficult to determine, presumably this week will form a consolidation between these zones.

Daily

https://www.tradingview.com/x/oOfPqrh6/

In terms of the daily timeframe we do not see any changes compared to the weekly timeframe. We should work from the current zones, waiting for a breakdown of one of them, which will allow us to form further narratives.

SP500 / NQ100

Weekly

https://www.tradingview.com/x/GT4LCQXZ/

The stock indices SP500 and NQ100 perfectly executed last week's plan and currently the downtrend continues. However, the NQ100 index has already reached our target and is in the OB zone in the context of the removed Internal SSL, which is a strong zone for an upward reaction. The NQ100 needs to pass the 19,000 level to confirm the upward trend change. This is a key resistance zone at the moment.

Daily

https://www.tradingview.com/x/Y7gsdjBF/

SP500 index - failed to reach its main target of Internal SSL (5270), while forming an SMT with NQ100. Presumably SP500 will continue its downward movement on the removal of Internal SSL (5270). Otherwise, we should consider the Inversion-FVG zone and the level of 5432 as the main resistance for the upward movement.

It is worth noting that such a divergence between the indices, between two opposite zones of interest, as well as the absence of news events this week are strong signs of transition into a phase of consolidation, between the marked values.