Trap or truth? BlackRock, Grayscale, spot ETF and the growth of Bitcoin.

A trap or the truth? BlackRock, Grayscale, spot ETFs and the rise of bitcoin.

The end of October is outstandingly busy, and there are still many important events and macroeconomic indicators ahead, not to mention the upcoming Fed meeting on November 1.

Despite the recent fake news about the approval of BTC spot ETFs, bitcoin is updating its 2023 high (31800) on the back of positive news about BlackRock, Grayscale and their Bitcoin spot ETFs.

Now let's get more detailed, starting with the chronology and ending with the conclusions:

First came the news that BlackRock was planning a Seed round of investing in a yet unapproved spot ETF on BTC. The market reacted positively, and how could it be otherwise, because a seed round is an early investment round at the stage when the product is already ready , which directly hints investors about the possible approval of the ETF itself soon. At the same time there was other news that all spot ETFs will be approved at the same time, and BlackRock is actively engaged in the process of bringing ETFs to the market.

A short time later, news broke on the internet that the US Court of Appeals had ordered the SEC to review Grayscale's application for a spot BTC ETF.

Bitcoin's rise has been accompanied by this news. At the time of writing, bitcoin is successfully aiming for the 2023 high (31800).

You know the saying "buy on rumors, sell on news"? Growth is happening on investor expectations, which begs the question. The future approval may not be soon and the fact of news release may not mean positive for the markets, on the contrary historically it may mark the end of the growth phase, because there are already such cases in history:

1. December 2017, market reversal at the moment of Bitcoin Futures on CME/CBOE.

2. October 2021, market reversal after the adoption of Bitcoin Futures ETF.

Similar situations were also seen with gold ETFs or during Ethereum's transition to another consensus - then, too, the growth was on expectations of future positive news.

This is explained by the fact that the news worked itself out before the release and all the positive news was already taken into account in the prices. It is not certain that this will be the case, but it is also a possible scenario that should not be dismissed. Turn on critical thinking and rationally assess the market situation.