Weekly plan - 26.08 - 30.08.2024

Macro

Monday

🇬🇧 - Bank Holiday

🇨🇭 Employment Level - 09:30

🇪🇸 PPI - 10:00

🇩🇪 Business Expectations, Current Assessment, Business Climate - 11:00 am

🇺🇸 Durable Goods Orders m/m - 15:30

🇨🇦 (Prelim) Wholesale Sales - 15:30

🇺🇸 Atlanta FED GDPnow (q3) - 17:30

Let's break down the most important ones:

🇺🇸 Durable Goods Orders m/m - 15:30

Previous MoM (-6.6%)

MoM Forecast (4.0%)

Durable Goods Orders is an important economic survey conducted each month by the U.S. Census Bureau. This survey collects data on orders for goods that are designed to last a long time, such as automobiles, appliances, industrial equipment, and other goods that serve for several years.

This survey covers various industries to provide an accurate picture of the current economic activity in the country. Investors and analysts closely follow the results of this survey as it is one of the key indicators of the health of the economy.

Based on the data on durable goods orders, conclusions can be drawn about the demand for products, production levels and the outlook for the industry. An increase in orders can indicate a growing economy, while a decrease can indicate possible problems or a downturn. Thus, this data helps investors make informed decisions about investing in different sectors of the economy.

Tuesday

🇩🇪 GDP - 09:00

🇺🇸 CB Consumer Confidence - 17:00

🇬🇧 Distributive Trades Survey - 13:00

🇺🇸 House Price Index - 16:00

🇺🇸 CB Consumer Confidence - 17:00

🇺🇸 M2 Money Supply - 20:00

🇺🇸 2y T-Note Auction - 8:00 p.m.

🇺🇸🛢 Weekly Crude Oil Stock - 11:30 p.m.

Let's break down the most important ones:

🇺🇸 CB Consumer Confidence - 17:00

Previous MoM (100.3)

MoM Forecast (100.1)

The Consumer Confidence Index, which is calculated by an organization called the Conference Board (CB), is an important tool for gauging consumer sentiment about economic conditions. This index shows how confident people are about the sustainability of the economy and their financial capabilities. A high level of consumer confidence usually indicates that people are willing to spend money on purchases, which in turn stimulates economic growth. Since consumer spending accounts for a significant portion of gross domestic product (GDP), consumer confidence is an important leading indicator to predict future economic trends.

When the index shows high values, it means that consumers perceive economic stability and are willing to actively participate in purchases, investments and other economic activities. This creates favorable conditions for businesses, which can count on increased demand for their goods and services. On the other hand, low consumer confidence can signal that people are worried about their financial future and tend to postpone large purchases or savings, which can slow economic growth. Thus, changes in the consumer confidence index can provide insight into consumer sentiment and expectations for the future, making it an important tool for economic analysis and decision-making by investors and policymakers.

🇺🇸 2y T-Note Auction - 8:00 p.m.

The yield on auctioned government bonds reflects the return an investor will receive by holding the bond to maturity. Governments issue these obligations to cover budget deficits and refinance debt. The average yield at auction is important for assessing the health of the economy and the level of confidence in the government.

Fluctuations in yields can indicate changes in the economy and investor expectations. If yields are rising compared to previous auctions, this may indicate a decline in confidence or expectations of rising interest rates and currency appreciation.

Wednesday

🇺🇸 Waller (FED) - 08:15 AM

🇪🇺 M3 Money Supply - 11:00 a.m.

🇺🇸 30y Mortage Rate + Mortage Index - 14:00

🇬🇧 Mann (Bank of England) - 15:15

🇺🇸🛢 Cushing + Crude Oil Inventories - 17:30

🇺🇸 5y T-Note Auction - 8:00 pm

Let's break down the most important ones:

🇺🇸 5y T-Note Auction - 8:00pm

Same situation as the 2y T-Note, but will be less correlated with the medium-term analysis.

Thursday

🇩🇪 (Prelim) CPI - 15:00

🇺🇸 (Prelim) GDP Price Index q2 - 15:30

🇺🇸 (Prelim) GDP q2 - 15:30

🇺🇸 Unemployment Claims - 15:30

🇺🇸 7y T-Note Auction - 8:00 pm

🇺🇸 Bostic (FOMC) - 22:30

🇺🇸 FEDʼs Balance Sheet - 23:30

🇺🇸 Reserve Balances with FED - 23:30

Let's break down the most important ones:

🇺🇸 (Prelim) GDP Price Index q2 - 15:30

Previous figure for q1 (3.1%)

Forecast q2 (2.3%)

GDP Price Index - is a key economic indicator that measures the rate of inflation based on changes in the prices of goods and services produced in the United States. This index reflects how the prices of domestically created products change, and it is used to estimate the overall inflation rate in the economy. It is important to note that the index only covers goods and services that are produced in the United States and exported abroad. Prices of goods and services imported into the country are not included in this index. This means that the GDP price index provides an indication of how prices are changing within the country, but does not take into account external factors, such as the cost of imported goods, which can also affect the inflation rate in the economy. This indicator is widely used to analyze economic stability and understand price movements over the long term.

🇺🇸 (Prelim) GDP q2 - 15:30

Previous figure for q1 (1.4%)

Forecast q2 (2.8%)

Gross Domestic Product is a key economic indicator that measures the annual change in the value of all goods and services produced domestically. It is important to note that GDP takes into account inflation, that is, changes in the price level of goods and services. This allows us to measure the real growth of the economy, not just the increase in value due to rising prices.

GDP is the broadest and most comprehensive measure of economic activity, as it includes all sectors of the economy: industry, agriculture, services, construction and others. Because of this, GDP is used as the primary indicator of the health of the economy. When GDP is rising, it indicates that the economy is growing, production is increasing, and people are getting richer on average. Conversely, a decline in GDP can indicate a slowdown in economic activity or even the beginning of a recession.

It is published monthly. There are three versions of GDP released at one-month intervals - preliminary, second publication and final.

🇺🇸 Unemployment Claims/Initial Jobless Claims - 3:30 p.m.

🇺🇸 7y T-Note Auction - 8:00 p.m.

Friday

🇯🇵 Tokyo CPI - 02:30

🇯🇵 Unemployment Rate - 02:30

🇯🇵 Retail Sales - 02:50

🇩🇪 Retail Sales - 09:00

🇩🇪 Unemployment (Change, Rate, Number) - 10:55 am

🇪🇺 Flash CPI - 12:00

🇪🇺 Flash Core CPI - 12:00

🇪🇺 Unemployment Rate - 12:00

🇨🇦 GDP - 15:30

🇺🇸 PCE Price Index - 15:30

🇺🇸 Core PCE Price Index - 15:30

🇺🇸 Michigan 1y+5y Inflation Expectations - 17:00

🇺🇸 Atlanta FED GDPnow (q3) - 17:30

🗂️ CFTC Report - 22:30

Let's break down the most important ones:

🇪🇺 Flash CPI - 12:00

YoY chart

Previous MoM (0.0%) YoY (2.6%)

Forecast MoM (n/a) YoY (2.3%)

🇪🇺 Flash Core CPI - 12:00 PM

YoY chart

Previous MoM (-0.2%) YoY (2.9%)

Forecast MoM (n/a) YoY (2.8%)

TheConsumer Price Index (CPI) is one of the key economic indicators widely used to gauge a country's inflation rate. This index is calculated based on a careful measurement of changes in the prices of a wide range of goods and services that are included in the so-called "consumer basket". In the structure of the CPI, approximately 2/3 of the basket consists of services and 1/3 of goods. This distribution reflects current trends in developed economies, where the service sector plays an increasingly important role.

Core CPI, orcore CPI, is a modified version of the standard CPI. The key difference of Core CPI is that two important components are excluded from its calculation: food and energy. Using Core CPI along with the standard CPI gives a more complete picture of inflationary processes. While the CPI reflects changes in the general price level, including short-term fluctuations, the Core CPI allows assessing underlying inflationary trends that are less susceptible to temporary factors.

Regular monitoring of these indicators allows the Central Bank to assess the effectiveness of monetary policy, forecast economic trends and make informed decisions in the field of economic regulation.

How does the price dynamics play out? The growth of values will be an incentive to tighten monetary policy and the corresponding strengthening of the currency, and vice versa.

🇪🇺 Unemployment Rate - 12:00 pm

Previous MoM (6.5%)

MoM Forecast (6.5%)

TheUnemployment Rate is an indicator that shows the percentage of people who are unemployed to the total labor force. This indicator plays an important role in assessing the state of the economy, as the unemployment rate directly affects the welfare of the population and the economic stability of the country.

To accurately calculate the unemployment rate, it is necessary to determine who exactly is in the labor force. The labor force includes all people who either have a job or are actively looking for one, i.e. the unemployed. Those who are neither working nor looking for work, such as students, pensioners or housewives, are not considered part of the labor force and are not included in the calculation of the unemployment rate.

A higher unemployment rate may indicate problems in the economy, such as low labor demand or structural changes.

🇺🇸 PCE Price Index - 3:30 p.m.

Previous MoM (0.1%) YoY (2.5%)

Forecast MoM (0.2%) YoY (2.9%)

🇺🇸 Core PCE Price Index - 15:30

Previous MoM (0.2%) YoY (2.6%)

Forecast MoM (n/a) YoY (n/a)

Another inflation metric that is the most important of all the others, because it is what the Fed looks at when setting the target rate.

ThePCE Price Index, which is published monthly in the Personal Income and Expenditures report, is an important indicator that tracks changes in the prices of goods and services purchased by consumers in the United States. This index takes into account a wide range of goods and services, from food and clothing to health care and electronics, making it a key indicator of inflation. Importantly, in addition to monthly data, PCE price index information is also included in quarterly and annual GDP reports, providing a better understanding of overall trends in the economy and their impact on people's purchasing power. The PCE is one of the tools the Federal Reserve uses to assess inflation risks and make monetary policy decisions.

TheCore PCE Price Index excluding food and energy, also known as theCore PCE Price Index, is published as part of the monthly Personal Income and Expenditures report. The core index makes it easier to determine the underlying trend in inflation by excluding two categories-food and energy-whose prices tend to fluctuate more sharply and more frequently than other goods and services. The Federal Reserve closely monitors the PCE core price index when conducting monetary policy.

The effects on the currency can be two-way: a rise in the PCE can lead to higher interest rates and an appreciation of the national currency; on the other hand, during a recession, a rise in the PCE can lead to a deepening of the recession and thus a depreciation of the national currency.

🗂️ CFTC Report - 22:30

TheCommitment of Traders (COT) Report is an important weekly report that provides detailed information on the aggregate futures positions of various categories of market participants on U.S. exchanges. It is published every Friday at 22:30 GMT+3 by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). This report serves as a snapshot of the market, showing the distribution of positions between large institutional investors, commercial participants and retail traders. This analysis helps you as traders and analysts to understand market sentiment, identify possible trends and predict future price movements based on how different groups of market participants allocate their positions.

Crypto

BTC/USDT

Monthly

https://www.tradingview.com/x/L28M2OYI/

No changes, waiting for the end of the month.

Weekly

https://www.tradingview.com/x/keTh8mZW/

All I'm waiting for now is for the weekly bar to close above the past two weeks.

Daily

https://www.tradingview.com/x/1YhYEtCZ/

As soon as the monthly candle closes, we could be in for some scary and bloody days in September, but they are nothing compared to the candle closing at the end of September. What I mean is that the opening of the new month may be too volatile for the market and we may or may not be in for a terrible correction. So be prepared for any outcome.

ETH/USDT

Monthly

https://www.tradingview.com/x/sWY03pFj/

Expecting a rally and a close above last month's low.

Weekly

https://www.tradingview.com/x/CpYqEJ5v/

Weekly bar is not energizing brightly, so its closing will not affect anything. Here I would like to get back to 2510 within 15-20 days and fly on high momentum and brisk ether to the market.

Daily

https://www.tradingview.com/x/ir1vXH8r/

This is my plan for the fall, not interested in anything else, even a correction to 3000, is not that important to me, more demand at 2500.

ETH/BTC

Weekly

https://www.tradingview.com/x/c4Sb8pFe/

After all, altcoins are still very weak, and all^ you see are dead cat throws, The upward movement hasn't even happened yet, but is very close to being realized.

FX & Stock market

DXY

Weekly

https://www.tradingview.com/x/5WRHpePj/

The DXY index continued its downward movement and reached the lower boundary of the global consolidation, removing one of the key lows. In this case, the index may get a trend reversal or continue the downward movement to the 100.00 level and External SSL.

To confirm the reversal from the current zone, the 4-hour timeframe pattern should be considered.

Daily

https://www.tradingview.com/x/MiJWvjWZ/

From a daily timeframe perspective, the optimal decision would be to consider an upside reaction to Internal BSL with overlapping zones of ineffectiveness (FVG SIBI). Since the key PCE Price Index data is expected to be released on Friday and it is the last week of summer, we assume consolidation between the zones of the lower boundary of global consolidation and the marked FVG SIBI until Friday.

EURUSD

Weekly

https://www.tradingview.com/x/SeaYSsGi/

EURUSD continues to grow, and at the moment it has entered the Gap zone, having removed Internal BSL and reached 50% Gap. At the moment EURUSD has 2 options of development:
1) Continuation of the upward movement on the removal of External BSL;
2) Price reversal towards the upper boundary of the global consolidation and return to it.

Daily

https://www.tradingview.com/x/ekabGmeh/

In terms of the daily timeframe we can expect a sideways movement with a potential removal of the Internal SSL and a test of the FVG BISI, or the price will immediately continue to move towards the External BSL.

GBPUSD

Weekly

https://www.tradingview.com/x/kHyOPNLP/

GBPUSD reached the upper boundary of the global consolidation and consolidated above it, which may mean the continuation of the upward movement to overlap the GAP zone. The support level in this case will be 1.3050, in case there is a correction.

Daily

https://www.tradingview.com/x/T7aioO4k/

From the point of view of the daily timeframe we can expect the continuation of growth without correction, but there is also a probability to move into consolidation with the test of FVG BISI with the support level of 1.3050.

SP500 / NQ100

Weekly

https://www.tradingview.com/x/i0DLUw9T/

US stock indices last week stopped on the removal of the Internal BSL and moved into the conosolidation phase, but the narrative remains unchanged, we also expect a move to the External BSL 5721 on SP500 and the overlap of the FVG SIBI 20000 zone on NQ100.

Daily

https://www.tradingview.com/x/gFeUI2Gm/

In terms of daily timeframe, Inside Bar is formed on both indices, which may lead to correction to FVG BISI zones. We advise to work from the removal of the max/min of the current Inside Bar ( max/min of Thursday 22.08).